Praise for The Exponential Era
"The Exponential Era turns strategic planning from a stagnant limited application exercise to an active thoughtful process that can yield benefits for all companies and executives. Every company leader can find a gem in the Exponential Era to apply to their business big or small."
- Michael Splinter, Chairman of the Board, NASDAQ and Retired Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Applied Materials
"I count this among the very best business books I have read. The authors have managed to synthesize a vast array of thinking and methodologies and deployed them in a practical and easily understood planning process (SPX) that addresses today's exponential pace of change."
- James B. Stake, former Executive Vice President, Enterprise Services, 3M Company and Chairman, Ativa Medical Corporation
"The Exponential Era is an essential read for our times."
- John Puckett, Owner of Punch Pizza and Co-founder of Caribou Coffee
"The Exponential Era does a great job of not only describing exponential technologies, but how they likely converge to transform our world."
- Frank Diana, Managing Partner, Futurist, TATA Consultancy Services
"The Exponential Era is a must-read for business leaders, entrepreneurs, and virtually anyone navigating our highly complex and rapidly changing world."
- General (Ret. 4 Star) Joseph L. Votel, President and CEO, Business Executives for National Security (BENS)
Table of Contents
About the Authors xv
Acknowledgments xvii
Foreword xix
Introduction 1
The Threat of Being Amazoned and Uberized 2
Elephants Dancing to a Faster Tempo 4
Where Is My Crystal Ball? 4
Trillion-Dollar Platforms 6
Changing Wheels While the Car Is Running 7
Dealing with Chaos 8
Uncertainty Must Be Managed 8
The Premise Behind SPX 9
How This Book Is Organized 11
Section One 15
Chapter 1 The New Context for Our Future 17
The Future Is Not Your Brain’s Priority 18
Exponentials Make Fools of Humans 19
The Phases of Exponential Progression 19
The Exponential Explosion 22
Moore’s Law: The Observation that Changed the World 24
Chapter 2 Exponential Platforms: Convergences and Megatrends 27
Megatrends 29
Hyper Global Connectivity 29
A Longer and Healthier Life 30
Augmented and Virtual Worlds 31
Abundance 32
Upgraded Transportation 33
Instant Personalization 34
Digitization of Work 34
Automated Shopping 35
Radical Interfaces 36
Sustainable Environment 36
Exponential Platforms 37
Artificial Intelligence 37
Networks and Blockchain 41
Biotechnology 43
Quantum Computing 44
Internet of Things 44
3D Printing 45
Robotics 46
Material Science 47
Chapter 3 Animals of the Exponential Kingdom 49
Flash Boiled Frogs 49
Nokia 50
Blockbuster 51
Disruptive
Unicorns 52
Airbnb 52
ByteDance 53
Fast and Furious Gazelles 55
Uber 55
Netflix 56
Dancing Elephants 58
IBM 59
Microsoft 60
Dominating Gorillas 61
Google 61
Amazon 62
Section Two 65
Chapter 4 Introducing SPX: Strategic Planning for the Exponential Era 67
Convergence Research and Strategic Planning 68
The Manifesto that Changed How Software Is Built 69
Iterative Experiments in a Feedback Loop 71
Thinking Like a Designer 72
Getting Inside the Opponent’s Head with OODA 73
A New Approach to Strategic Planning 74
Traditional Strategic Planning versus SPX 75
Chapter 5 Detecting Early Signals 79
If It Is Obvious to Everyone, It Has No Value 80
Research and Observation 83
Removing Barriers to Information Flow 84
Access Is the Name of the Game 86
Dealing with Uncertainty 87
Conducting Research 88
Predictive Analytics 90
Timing Analysis 92
Chapter 6 Learning from Experiments 95
Divergence and Convergence 96
Starting with Divergence 97
Moving into Convergence 99
Short Experiments 101
Risks and Opportunities Identification 104
Embracing Chaos and Bad News 105
Chapter 7 Capabilities - The Essential Fuel to Ride the Exponential Curve 107
Determine Capabilities 108
People 109
Process 112
Technology 115
Market 116
Capital 119
Develop Risk-Opportunity-Capability Map 120
Develop Priority List 122
Chapter 8 Feedback-Based Strategic Decisions 125
Determine Scale and Scope 127
Explore Highest Priorities 130
Gather Data and Feedback 132
Scale or Terminate Initiatives 134
Chapter 9 Leading a Culture of Change 137
Exploration versus Exploitation - the Innovator’s Dilemma 139
Amplifying Flow Through the Organization 141
Mobilizing the Organization Through an Inflection Point 142
Knowing When to Quit 143
Executive Engagement 145
Culture and Behaviors 147
Judgment 148
Curiosity 148
Innovation 148
Integrity 149
Section Three 151
Chapter 10 The Exponential Human - Social and Ethical Challenges in a Chaotic World 153
The Workless Society 154
Education Reinvented 156
Global Synchronous Communications 159
New Ethics for a New Era 161
For My Children 163
A Discussion About The Use of The Term Exponential 165
Notes and References 167
Index 175
