An incisive framework for companies seeking to increase their resilience
In The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, renowned risk and finance expert Håkan Jankensgård delivers an extraordinary and startling discussion of how firms should navigate a world of uncertainty and unexpected events. It examines three fundamental, high-level strategies for creating resilience in the face of “black swan” risks, highly unlikely but devastating events: insurance, buffering, and flexibility:
The author also presents:
- Detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate Black Swan Problems and, as a result, were either wiped out or experienced a major strategy disruption
- Extending the usual academic focus on individual biases to analyze Swans from an organizational perspective and prime organizations to proactive rather than reactive action
- Practical applications and tactics to mitigate Black Swan risks and protect corporate strategies against catastrophic losses and the collateral damage that they cause
- Strategies and tools for turning Black Swan events into opportunities, reflecting the fact that resilience can be used for strategic advantage
An expert blueprint for companies seeking to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a must-read for students and practitioners of risk management, executives, founders, managers, and other business leaders.
Table of Contents
Prologue 3
Chapter 1: The Swans Revisited 7
The nature of randomness 8
The Moving Tail 11
The role of expectations 16
What makes us suckers? 20
The relativity of Black Swans 24
Meet the preppers 28
Chapter 2: Corporate Swans 31
The Board’s perspective 31
Swans attack 33
Strategy Swans 35
The Swan within 39
The growth fetish 42
The fear factor 47
The Chief Executive Swan 49
Swans on the rise 52
Chapter 3: The Black Swan Problem 60
Tail risk and firm value 60
Understanding wipeouts 65
Strategy disruption 71
All you zombies 76
The affordability issue 78
The conundrum 84
Chapter 4: Greeting the Swan 90
Randomness redux 90
The roads not taken 98
Functional stupidity 102
The Swanmakers 108
On tools and models 112
A Swan radar for the Board 116
Chapter 5: Taming the Swan 122
Drawing the line 122
Distance to wipeout 129
Risk capital 131
Stress testing 140
The exit option 146
Resilience vs endurance 150
Quantitative models 155
Liquidity is king 162
Chapter 6: Catching the Swan 166
Antifragility 167
Restoring the true path 170
Buying on the cheap 173
Opportunity capital 176
Flight to safety 182
Risk as strategy 187
Chapter 7: Riding the Swan 192
Risk shifting 192
A beautiful strategy 199
Fuel for growth 203
Narcissism redeemed 208
A tail of two companies 211
End of the ride 215
Swans to the rescue? 217
Epilogue 221
