Platinum Letter International Volume 2: Sibanye-Stillwater Update, PGM Market Outlook, Companies Performance Comparisons, African Rainbow Minerals

Platinum Group Metals (PGM) are considered critical minerals essential for economic and national security. Included here are platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, and iridium. The primary application for PGM today is autocatalysts used with ICE (internal combustion engines) vehicles for emissions control. The share prices of PGM miners now trade close to their 52-week low due to a fall in the price of PGM, which is based on fears of EV (electric vehicle) penetration of the ICE vehicles market. These fears are unwarranted since it is likely the bullish EV forecasts will fail to materialize, according to the analyst.

Electric vehicles (EVs) seem inevitable given the political, cultural, and economic forces now driving the market for these products. However, despite all the hype, it is possible the EV market might not take off as planned. There are several reasons for this including:

• No one knows when or whether EVs will reach economic parity with the cars that most people drive.
• Mining EV battery materials have a high environmental cost, a factor that inevitably makes the EV manufacturing process more energy-intensive than that of an ICE vehicle.
• Automakers will lose too much money making EVs For example, Ford recently announced it would lose $4.5 billion from its EV segment in 2023, a $1.5 billion larger loss than in 2022.
• Lack of charging infrastructure.
• EV repair costs are much higher than those of ICE cars.

As a result, the takeover of the motor vehicle market by EVs is by no means assured, and the use of PGM in ICE vehicles will continue to grow, although at a slower pace than in the past.

Regarding PGM prices, the analyst also states that approximately 77% of the global platinum supply comes from South Africa and c.33% of the global palladium supply comes from there. In South Africa, PGM producers are under pressure from failings at Eskom, the national power producer. As a result of Eskom’s load shedding, the 2023 PGM supply could disappoint by 10%-25%, leading to higher prices.

Currently, Anglo American Platinum is identified as the top, pure-play PGM producer in terms of EBITDA, while Norilsk Nickel holds the top spot in terms of revenue.

Topics covered in Volume 2 include: 

• Sibanye-Stillwater 2021-2022 Production
• Critical Minerals
• Thesis
• Premier PGM Supplier
• Company Strategy
• Updated Financial Results
• EPS/Valuation
• Income Statement
• Cash Flow
• Balance Sheet
• Business Performance
• South Africa Power Issues
• Platinum Outlook
• Palladium Outlook
• Autocatalysts
• Electric Vehicles Threat to Ices
• What if EV Forecasts Are Wrong?
• Is Climate Change a Hoax?
• Publicly Traded PGM Miners
• Company Performance Comparisons

Company News: 

• African Rainbow Materials Limited
• Bokoni Project
• Export Disruptions
• New CEO
• Alternative Energy
• Valuation
• Dividends
• Risks