European Green Steel Market (by Demand, Supply, Type, End User, & Region): Insights and Forecast with Potential Impact of COVID-19 (2023-2028)

Green steel is steel that is less harmful to the environment than typical steel-making procedures. This footprint is reduced when non-coal-based alternative technologies are implemented. Green hydrogen is typically used in green steel manufacturing rather than coal or power generated from non-fossil sources.

The European green steel industry is projected to develop in the future as European steelmaking rivals such as Germany's Thyssenkrupp and ArcelorMittal consider utilizing hydrogen to replace coking coal. With demand growing fast, green steel providers are likely to benefit from a very tight supply/demand balance over the next decade, with considerable profit upside forecast. However, as supply expands and green steel becomes the standard, price power is expected to dwindle. Europe green steel market is expected to reach US$76.97 million by 2023, growing at a CAGR of 75.24% during the forecast period.

The outlook for green steel demand has positively surprised over recent years with a larger range of end users than projected. It is clear that demand for green steel has spread into many more end sectors than was anticipated. Green steel demand is ultimately driven by a mix of two primary drivers: Scope 3 emissions reduction objectives and end-user demand. Green steel market demand in Europe is expected to reach 3.68 million tonnes in 2023. In 2021, the European green steel market saw a supply as SSAB, a Swedish partnership, supplied the first batch of the metal - made using 'green' hydrogen - to a vehicle manufacturer for truck manufacturing. Swedish steel makers would increase steel output in the next few years as green hydrogen drives the transformation of one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonize. Europe green steel market supply is predicted to grow to 1.51 million tonnes in 2023.

Segment Covered

By Type: In terms of type, the report offers insights of the Europe green steel market into two types: Molten Oxide Electrolysis (MOE) and Electric Arc Furnace (EAF). Molten Oxide Electrolysis (MOE) segment acquired majority of share in the market, as it removes the need for coking ovens and blast furnaces. Instead, iron ore is dissolved in a liquid electrolyte solution at a temperature of about 1,600ºC before an electrical current is passed through the solution, reducing the iron ore into a liquid in an endothermic reaction. Whereas, Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) segment is expected to have the highest CAGR in the future as arc furnaces used in research laboratories and by dentists may have a capacity of only a few dozen grams. These furnaces run on natural gas and will eventually use green hydrogen (H2), dramatically reducing the plant’s carbon emissions.

By End User: On the basis of end users, the report provides the bifurcation of the market into four segments: Automotive, Construction, Electronics and Other End Users. Automotive segment held the largest share in the market, as green steel is now being used by automakers to ensure a cleaner, greener manufacturing ecosystem. Moreover, international auto makers like GM, Volvo, Mercedes etc., have pledged to become carbon neutral by 2040.

Geographic Coverage

According to the report, the Europe green steel market can be divided into five sub regions: Sweden, Germany, France, UK and Rest of Europe. Sweden green steel market enjoyed the highest market share, primarily owing to aims for climate neutrality by 2045 and accounts for the biggest investment volume that has been announced. Swedish steel venture H2 Green Steel - founded in 2020 - announced that some of the most prominent European financial institutions have decided to support the hydrogen-based steel plant construction in northern Sweden. These investments and funding would increase the supply as many players would establish green steel plants in Europe. Swedish steel companies will ramp up the country’s steel production over the next few years as green hydrogen helps drive the transformation of one of the hardest industries to decarbonize.

Top Impacting Factors

Growth Drivers

• Rising Green Penetration
• Carbon Neutrality
• Certificate-based Products
• Multiple End Users

Challenges

• Energy Crisis
• Higher Cost Of Production

Trends

• Increasing Investment In Launching Greenfield Projects
• High Utilization Of Alternative Resources
• New Technologies

Driver: Rising Green Penetration

A green field strategy is a penetration plan designed to broach the untouched or undeveloped areas. Often selling organizations are so focused on well-defined product sales opportunities that they miss the green field altogether. Many companies are following the strategy due to the environment concerns. Green steel is the manufacturing of steel without the use of fossil fuels. Demand for green steel is increasing and technologies continue to be developed as the industry moves towards decarbonization and a more sustainable future. Low-cost and renewable energy sources must be more readily available, however, should the industry wish to achieve its carbon neutral goals. Also, the government of different countries are and will be investing in the green steel market as the supply and demand for green steel is estimated to increase.

Challenge: Energy Crisis

The ongoing European energy crisis has put the domestic steel industry under extreme pressure, driving significant cost inflation and testing the degree to which unprecedented supply discipline can force customers to accept price hikes. Ironically, while currently surging gas and power costs have not impacted all European steelmakers equally, leaving BF-based producers relatively better off, the companies are concerned that decarbonization will meaningfully increase the industry’s leverage to power and gas costs. Absent a meaningful correction in prices, this situation could expose the fundamental uncompetitiveness of the industry compared to other regions, in particular the US.

Trend: New Technologies

While certificate-based green products are the focus today, the market is changing rapidly, and today’s green products will be followed by a whole new range of options post-2025 as new technologies ramp-up. In Europe, the consensus plan is to develop green hydrogen capacity that will power new direct reduced iron (DRI) plants; green DRI will then be processed into steel in new EAFs powered by renewable energy. The industry's response to the challenges posed by traditional methods is green steel - metal produced without releasing carbon into the environment. There are various technologies being rolled out in pilots around the world, but the focus is on replacing coking coal in the process. Key technologies such as carbon capture, utilization and storage for cement and steel industries and hydrogen-based steel manufacturing are still in prototype and demonstration stages.

The COVID-19 Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic continues into 2022 and is still impacting different industries across the globe. There is no significant impact of COVID-19 on the Europe green steel market. In fact, the pandemic had helped manufacturers and buyers realize the importance of environment friendly products. Thus, the growth of green steel market emerged and companies as well as government are investing in different projects in the market on producing green steel.

Analysis of Key Players

Europe green steel market is concentrated with SSAB, Salzgitter and ArcelorMittal as best positioned, in Europe. Key players of Europe green steel market are ArcelorMittal S.A., ThyssenKrupp AG, Salzgitter AG, SSAB AB, Tenaris S.A., Tata Steel Europe Limited, Swiss Steel Group (Deutsche Edelstahlwerke Specialty Steel GmbH & Co. KG), Vanir Green Industries (Blaster Green Steel), GFG Alliance (Liberty Steel Group Holdings UK Ltd) O-I Glass, Inc., Voestalpine AG, and H2 Green Steel.

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