This short note provides an early review of 3Q23 market growth and capex spending figures for two of the three operator segments we cover: webscale, and carrier-neutral. (Our third segment, telco, will be addressed in a few weeks as more earnings reports are available.) The analysis is based on a review of over 80% of reporting companies in the two segments. Our official forecast for 2023 calls for $218B of capex for webscalers, and $39B for carrier-neutral operators (CNNOs). Market figures through 3Q23 suggest actual capex is likely to be closer to $200B and $36B for the two segments, respectively. This is a small change, however, and the tech portion of webscale capex is rising modestly. Moreover, new data from DigitalBridge makes clear that private equity-funded spend is strong in the data center CNNO market, helping to offset a weaker public CNNO market. Consequently, the vendor opportunity in selling to these two markets in 2023 is roughly the same size as forecast.Preliminary Results for 3Q23: Full-Year Capex Likely to Be 5-10% Lower Than 7/23 Forecast, But Tech Portion of Spend is Trending Upwards
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Introduction
- Analysis
- Carrier-neutral
- Generative AI
- Outlook
- Appendix
List of Figures
Figure 1: Capex projection for Webscale and CNNO market (US$B), per 7/23 forecast
Figure 2: YoY revenue growth rates for Webscale’s Big 4 providers
Figure 3: Capex for select* CNNOs in 3Q21-3Q23 (US$M)
