Tobacco Products Market Outlook, 2028

Traditional tobacco products, such as cigarettes, cigars, and pipe tobacco, have been the cornerstone of the global tobacco market for many decades. Despite mounting health concerns, these products still command a significant share of the market. However, the industry's landscape is shifting, primarily due to increasing awareness of the health risks associated with smoking. The global tobacco products market, a colossal industry with a complex history and significant economic impact, has been undergoing notable transformations in recent years. While traditional tobacco consumption remains prevalent, evolving consumer preferences and increasing health consciousness have led to a surge in alternative products. For many decades, the tobacco industry was predominantly centered around traditional tobacco products, such as cigarettes and cigars. These products held a near-monopoly in the market and were widely consumed globally. One of the most significant shifts in the tobacco industry has been the changing preferences of consumers. As the health risks associated with traditional smoking became more evident, many consumers sought alternatives. This has given rise to the growth of alternative products like e-cigarettes, vaping, and heated tobacco devices. While tobacco consumption has been declining in many Western countries due to increased health awareness and regulatory measures, emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and South America have shown continued growth in tobacco product sales. Factors like affordability and cultural traditions play a significant role in driving demand in these regions. The growth of the tobacco products market is constrained by stringent regulations aimed at reducing the harm caused by tobacco use. These regulations include graphic warning labels on packaging, advertising restrictions, and high taxation. As a result, the industry faces significant challenges in marketing and selling its products. To adapt to changing consumer preferences and regulatory pressures, major tobacco companies have diversified their product portfolios. They are investing in research and development to create less harmful products and are exploring alternative sources of nicotine.

According to the research report, “Global Tobacco Product Market Outlook, 2028” the market is anticipated to cross USD 1100 Billion by 2028, increasing from USD 917.65 Billion in 2022. The market is expected to grow with 4.35% CAGR by 2023-28. The tobacco industry is targeting developing countries where there is a large and growing population of young adults, many of whom are more likely to smoke than older generations. For example, India is expected to become the world's largest tobacco market by 2030. Tobacco companies are developing new products, such as e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products, which they claim are less harmful than traditional cigarettes. These products are appealing to some smokers who are looking for a way to reduce their risk of tobacco-related diseases. Tobacco companies spend billions of dollars each year on marketing and advertising, which helps to promote their products and create brand loyalty. Tobacco companies often target their marketing campaigns at vulnerable populations, such as young people and people with low incomes. The World Health Organization estimates that tobacco kills over 8 million people each year. Despite the health risks, the tobacco products market is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. One of the most transformative forces in the tobacco market has been the proliferation of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) and vaping devices. These products offer consumers a potentially less harmful alternative to traditional smoking. E-cigarettes heat a liquid solution containing nicotine, producing an aerosol that users inhale. This innovation has attracted both smokers looking to quit and a younger demographic. Heated tobacco products have gained traction as another alternative to traditional cigarettes. Devices like IQOS, developed by Philip Morris International, have garnered significant attention. They work by heating tobacco without combustion, which reduces the production of harmful chemicals compared to conventional cigarettes.

Asia Pacific held the largest share in 2022 due to an offline infrastructure improvements and extensive brand marketing campaigns by prominent companies in key markets, such as India, Bangladesh, China, and Philippines.

The Asia-Pacific region is home to over half of the worlds population. With a vast consumer base, it naturally presents a lucrative market for tobacco products. Tobacco use has deep-rooted cultural and historical significance in many Asian countries. In some regions, smoking is associated with rituals and customs. These cultural factors sustain demand for tobacco products. In many parts of Asia, traditional tobacco products like cigarettes are relatively more affordable compared to Western countries. This affordability contributes to higher consumption rates. Some Asian countries have historically had less stringent tobacco control regulations compared to Western nations. These regulatory environments can be more conducive to the growth of the tobacco industry. Major global tobacco companies have a strong presence in the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan Tobacco International, British American Tobacco, and Philip Morris International. They have invested in manufacturing facilities, marketing, and distribution networks. The Asia-Pacific region includes numerous emerging economies, which are experiencing rapid industrialization and urbanization. As a result, there is increased disposable income and a growing middle class, leading to higher tobacco consumption. Many governments in the Asia-Pacific region rely on tobacco tax revenue as a substantial source of income. This reliance on tobacco revenue can influence policies and regulation. While the Asia-Pacific region has traditionally been a strong market for tobacco, health awareness and regulatory changes are gradually affecting the industry. Countries like Australia, Japan, and Thailand have implemented stricter tobacco control measures, which may impact consumption rates. In response to health concerns and changing preferences, the tobacco industry has been introducing reduced-risk products, such as e-cigarettes and heated tobacco devices, in the Asia-Pacific region to maintain its market presence.

Cigarettes have historically led the tobacco products market for several reasons. While the market is evolving, with the rise of alternative products like e-cigarettes and heated tobacco devices, traditional cigarettes have maintained their dominant position.

Cigarettes have a long history of use and a deep-seated tradition in many cultures. Smoking cigarettes has been a common practice for generations, making them a familiar and accepted form of tobacco consumption. Cigarettes are readily available in most countries and regions, making them easily accessible to consumers. They are sold in various packaging and pricing options to cater to a wide range of customers. Cigarettes are highly convenient for consumers. They are pre-packaged and do not require any special equipment or preparation. This convenience has contributed to their popularity. Cigarettes are efficient nicotine delivery devices. Nicotine is the addictive substance in tobacco, and cigarettes provide a rapid and consistent delivery of nicotine to the user, reinforcing the addiction. Tobacco companies have invested heavily in marketing and branding of cigarette products. The development of iconic brands and advertising strategies has created strong brand loyalty among consumers. Despite growing awareness of the health risks associated with smoking, cigarettes have been socially accepted in many societies for a long time. Social norms and cultural factors have played a significant role in their continued popularity. Nicotine addiction is a powerful force that keeps many smokers hooked on cigarettes. The physical and psychological dependence on nicotine makes it difficult for many individuals to quit smoking. The mass production and distribution of cigarettes by large tobacco companies have contributed to their ubiquity. Economies of scale have made cigarettes a cost-effective product to produce and sell. The strong branding of cigarette products has led to brand recognition and loyalty among consumers. Smokers often stick with the same brand over time, contributing to the consistent market share of established cigarette brands.

Offline sales channels provide opportunities for tobacco companies to sell directly to consumers through in-store displays and promotions as specialty tobacco shops and petrol stations are popular retail channels for tobacco products, especially in rural areas.

Specialty Tobacco Stores focus exclusively on tobacco products, including cigars, pipe tobacco, premium cigarettes, and tobacco accessories. They cater to niche markets and provide expert knowledge and guidance to tobacco enthusiasts. Convenience stores, also known as corner stores or gas station shops, have traditionally been a dominant distribution channel for tobacco products. They offer a wide selection of cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco products. The convenience and accessibility of these stores make them a popular choice for consumers. Wholesale distributors play a crucial role in the supply chain, serving retailers of all types, including convenience stores, supermarkets, and specialty tobacco shops. They ensure a steady flow of tobacco products to retail outlets. Duty-free shops located in airports and international borders provide an opportunity for travelers to purchase tobacco products without paying import duties and taxes. These shops offer a wide range of brands, making them popular among tourists. Specialized vape shops are a distribution channel for e-cigarettes, vape liquids, and related accessories. They cater to consumers looking for alternatives to traditional smoking. In some regions, automated vending machines have been used to distribute tobacco products, although their use has been decreasing due to regulatory restrictions and concerns about underage access. Cigarettes are easy to consume in various social settings, making them a common choice for smokers when socializing or taking breaks.

Market Drivers

• Continued Addiction and Cultural Factors: One of the foremost drivers in the global tobacco products market is the persistence of addiction and cultural factors that sustain demand. Despite increasing awareness of the severe health risks associated with tobacco consumption, many individuals find it challenging to quit due to nicotine addiction. Additionally, cultural norms and rituals in various regions around the world perpetuate the use of tobacco products. These deeply ingrained behaviors contribute to a steady market for cigarettes, cigars, and other tobacco items. The addictive nature of nicotine and the cultural significance attached to tobacco use ensure that there is a consistent, albeit controversial, demand for these products.
• Emerging Markets and Innovative Products: Emerging markets in developing countries play a pivotal role in driving the global tobacco products market. As economies in these regions grow, more individuals gain access to disposable income, leading to an increase in tobacco consumption. Furthermore, the industry is witnessing a shift towards innovative products, such as flavored and reduced-harm tobacco alternatives. These offerings are appealing to a wider consumer base and serve to diversify the market, attracting new segments of users. Products like e-cigarettes and heated tobacco devices are gaining popularity as consumers seek alternatives that are perceived as less harmful than traditional cigarettes. This innovation is pushing the boundaries of the industry and expanding its reach to new demographics.

Market Challenges

• Regulatory Pressures and Health Awareness: The tobacco industry faces formidable challenges in the form of stringent regulations and increasing health awareness. Governments worldwide are implementing strict policies to discourage tobacco use, including graphic warning labels, advertising restrictions, and high excise taxes. These measures have led to a decline in consumption in certain regions as consumers become more health-conscious and price-sensitive. Moreover, the global trend towards healthier lifestyles has created a perception that tobacco consumption is undesirable. The industry is compelled to tackle these negative perceptions and navigate a complex regulatory landscape, which presents substantial obstacles to market growth.
• Evolving Consumer Preferences and Ethical Concerns: Changing consumer preferences and ethical considerations are challenging the tobacco products market. A significant trend in recent years is the shift towards reduced-harm and smokeless alternatives, such as e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products, driven by consumers seeking a less harmful way to consume nicotine. Flavored tobacco products have also gained popularity, especially among younger consumers, emphasizing the need for product diversification. The rise of online retail and e-commerce platforms has transformed distribution channels, offering tobacco companies new ways to reach a broader customer base. Additionally, sustainability and ethical considerations are gaining importance, with some companies focusing on environmentally friendly packaging and responsible sourcing practices to cater to environmentally conscious consumers. The dynamic nature of these consumer-driven trends challenges traditional tobacco business models and encourages adaptation and innovation.

Market Trends

• Reduced-Harm Alternatives: A prominent trend in the global tobacco products market is the increasing consumer interest in reduced-harm alternatives. Products like e-cigarettes, heated tobacco devices, and nicotine pouches are gaining popularity as consumers seek ways to satisfy their nicotine cravings with potentially lower health risks compared to traditional cigarettes. This trend is driven by growing health consciousness and a desire to reduce the harm associated with tobacco consumption.
• Flavored Tobacco Products: Flavored tobacco products, particularly those appealing to younger consumers, have seen a surge in demand. These products come in various flavors, such as menthol, fruit, and dessert-inspired options, which make them more attractive to a diverse consumer base. This trend has led to concerns about youth initiation and has prompted regulatory scrutiny in some regions.
• E-commerce and Online Retail: The rise of e-commerce and online retail has transformed the distribution landscape for tobacco products. Consumers are increasingly purchasing tobacco items through online channels, providing convenience and a broader selection of products. This trend is reshaping the way tobacco companies market and sell their products, with an increased focus on digital marketing and e-commerce platforms.

Covid-19 Impacts

The pandemic caused disruptions in global supply chains, affecting the availability of some tobacco products. Delays in production, distribution, and delivery were experienced, leading to shortages in certain markets. In response to COVID-19, many governments imposed restrictions on retail operations. This impacted the industry's ability to distribute and sell products. The economic fallout from the pandemic, including job losses and financial insecurity, led some consumers to reduce discretionary spending, including on tobacco products. This contributed to a decline in consumption in certain regions. Some governments used the pandemic as an opportunity to implement stricter tobacco control measures. This included raising taxes on tobacco products, imposing plain packaging regulations, and implementing smoking bans in public places. These measures were aimed at improving public health but posed challenges for the industry. In the early stages of the pandemic, some regions experienced a surge in demand for tobacco products. This was partly due to consumer stockpiling in anticipation of potential disruptions in the supply chain and economic uncertainty. The industry saw a temporary boost in sales as people hoarded tobacco products. With lockdowns and restrictions on movement, there was a notable increase in online sales of tobacco products. E-commerce platforms and online retailers saw growth as consumers sought to purchase tobacco products without visiting physical stores. Tobacco production and manufacturing continued in many regions, albeit with some operational adjustments to comply with health and safety protocols. This allowed the industry to maintain a relatively steady supply of products.

Competitive Landscape

The companies active in the market include British American Tobacco plc , Scandinavian Tobacco Group, Imperial Tobacco Group plc, The Japan Tobacco Inc., Altria Group, Inc., Korea Tobacco & Ginseng Corporation (KT&G), Habanos S.A, Swisher International, Inc., Gurkha Cigar Group , Arnold Andre GmbH & Co. KG, Dosal Tobacco Corporation, PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, ITC Limited, Intercontinental Tobacco Group, Vector Group Ltd. , NTC Industries Ltd, Eastern Company SAE, Dharampal Satyapal Limited, Tabacos Monte Paz and China Tobacco International Inc. These companies are considered as top manufacturers of tobacco across the globe and hold a significant market share in the global tobacco market. The major market players are adopting various strategies such as partnership and collaboration, and merger and acquisition in order to stay competitive in the market. For instance, in July 2019, Imperial Brands PLC entered into an R&D partnership with Auxly Cannabis Group Inc. (Auxly), a listed Canadian cannabis company. The company invested around $95 million to further explore options for future growth. Further, in April 2019, the company announced to sell its global premium cigar business as part of its divestment program. The program supports Imperial’s ongoing simplification agenda and will release capital to pay down debt, invest in its growth synergies.

Key Developments

• In November 2022, with its mix of specially designed tobacco sticks, BLENDS, Philip Morris International Inc. launched its latest heat-not-burn tobacco heating system, BONDS by IQOS.
• In July 2022, In Tokyo, Japan, BAT announced the launch of gloTM hyper X2, its latest innovation from the fast-growing global heated tobacco brand gloTM. Featuring new, innovative, user-friendly features, the new 'barrel styling' product offers a new, innovative design shaped by consumer insights.
• In August 2021, Ploom X, a next-generation heated tobacco device was launched in Japan by JT Group. The Ploom X product is available in convenience stores and select tobacco retail outlets throughout Japan.
• In November 2022, Philip Morris International Inc.'s newest heat-not-burn tobacco heating technology, BONDS by IQOS, was introduced with a line of specially crafted tobacco sticks called BLENDS.
• In July 2022, BAT announced the release of gloTM hyper X2, the newest innovation from the quickly expanding international heated tobacco brand gloTM. The new "barrel styling" product offers a fresh, original design shaped by consumer input and includes brand-new, cutting-edge, user-friendly functions.
• In August 2021, the next-generation heated tobacco gadget, Ploom X, was introduced by JT Group in Japan. Convenience stores and a few tobacco retail locations in Japan carry the Ploom X product.

Considered in this report:

• Geography: Global
• Historic year: 2017
• Base year: 2022
• Estimated year: 2023
• Forecast year: 2028

Aspects covered in this report:

• Global Tobacco Product market with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Regional & Country-wise Tobacco Product market analysis
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

Regions & Countries covered in the report

• North America (United States, Canada, Mexico)
• Europe (Germany, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, Russia)
• Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, India, Australia, South Korea)
• South America (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia)
• Middle-East & Africa (UAE, Saudi Arabia, South Africa)

By Sector

• Cigarette
• Smokeless Tobacco
• Cigar and Cigarillos
• Next Generation Products
• Kretek

By Distribution Channel

• Specialty Store
• Hypermarket/supermarket
• Convenience Stores
• Online
• Others

Intended audience:

This report can be useful to industry consultants, manufacturers, suppliers, associations & organizations related to the Tobacco Product industry, government bodies, and other stakeholders to align their market-centric strategies. In addition to marketing & presentations, it will also increase competitive knowledge about the industry.