Electric Bus Market in India 2023-2028

Over the last couple of years, the e-bus market in India has undergone significant expansion, propelled by factors such as increased demand aggregation, standardization initiatives, advancements in product technology, and enhancements in charging infrastructure. The government's initiative to electrify fleets and the endeavours of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in creating integrated electric vehicle ecosystems have emerged as key catalysts for the notable growth of e-buses in the country. Consequently, a substantial increase in the penetration of electric buses is anticipated over the next 5-7 years.

Market Insights:

In FY 2023, a total of 1,919 unit of electric buses were sold in the country, and by the end of FY 2028 around 41,566 e-buses are expected to be sold expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~89.21% during the FY 2024 - FY 2028 period.

The electric bus market in India is currently in its early stages of development. As of July 2023, approximately 3,000 electric buses have been registered, with pending orders nearing 7,000 units. Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, and Gujarat together contribute to over 75% of the total registrations.

This landscape is expected to undergo significant transformation due to the Indian Government's strong emphasis on promoting cleaner public transportation and substantial investments planned for mobility infrastructure. Both the Central and state governments are actively supporting electric vehicles (EVs) through a range of incentives, including the FAME II scheme, PLI scheme, road tax exemptions, and reduced GST.

Key trends:

The electric bus (e-bus) category has demonstrated notably higher electric vehicle (EV) integration compared to other vehicle segments across the three primary electric vehicle sales states. Specifically, penetration rates are recorded at 15% in Uttar Pradesh (UP), 12% in Karnataka, and 8% in Maharashtra. The substantial growth of the electric bus market in India in recent years can be attributed to factors such as heightened consumer demand, standardized products, technological advancements, and enhancements in charging infrastructure.

The progression of technology, leading to improvements in charging efficiency, extended range, and the anticipated decrease in battery prices (which constitute 40% of the overall vehicle cost), is expected to propel the widespread adoption of electric vehicles in the bus sector. Several states have implemented pro-electric vehicle policies, complete with specified targets for e-bus penetration.

Analyzing the outlined policy frameworks and targets for electric buses, it is evident that state and city road transport corporations (STUs) alone present a cumulative annualized potential exceeding 15,000 e-buses.