The unconventional oil market was valued at $354.9 billion in 2023, and is estimated to reach $530.2 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.2% from 2024 to 2033.
Unconventional oil refers to petroleum resources that are not easily accessible or recoverable using traditional drilling methods. As compared to conventional oil that is extracted from porous reservoirs using conventional drilling techniques, unconventional oil requires advanced extraction methods due to its location in reservoirs with low permeability or trapped in unconventional geological formations. Unconventional oil resources include oil sands, shale oil, and heavy oil. Extracting unconventional oil often involves techniques such as hydraulic fracturing (fracking), steam injection, and mining processes, which are more complex and costly compared to conventional drilling methods.
Technological advancements have played a pivotal role in driving the demand for unconventional oil by unlocking vast reserves that were previously economically inaccessible or technically challenging to extract. These advancements have revolutionized the oil and gas industry by enabling the extraction of unconventional resources such as oil sands, tight oil, oil shale, and heavy oil. Furthermore, advancements in horizontal drilling technology have greatly enhanced the efficiency and productivity of unconventional oil extraction. Horizontal drilling allows operators to access larger areas of hydrocarbon-bearing formations from a single wellbore, increasing reservoir contact and improving well performance. All these factors are expected to drive the demand for the global unconventional oil market during the forecast period.
However, inconsistent regulations in unconventional oil industry are the uncertainty for investors and operators. Companies require a stable and transparent regulatory framework to make long-term investment decisions confidently. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), provisions of several federal environmental laws apply to certain activities related to oil and gas production, and proposals to expand federal regulation in this area have been highly controversial. Moreover, inconsistent regulations increase compliance costs and administrative burdens for companies operating in the unconventional oil sector. All these factors hamper the global unconventional oil market growth.
Advancements in methane detection and mitigation technologies are helping to address concerns about methane emissions associated with unconventional oil operations. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is released during various stages of oil production, including drilling, extraction, and transportation. By deploying state-of-the-art monitoring equipment and implementing best practices for leak detection and repair, operators minimize methane emissions and improve the environmental performance of their operations. All these factors are anticipated to offer new growth opportunities for the global unconventional oil market during the forecast period.
The global unconventional oil market is segmented into type, technology, operations, and region. On the basis of type, the market is classified as extra heavy oil, bitumen, oil shale, and heavy oil. As per technology, the market is categorized into steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), cyclic steam stimulation (CSS), expanding solvent steam assisted gravity drainage (ES SAGD), and others. By operations, the market is segmented into upstream, midstream, and downstream. Region wise, the market is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.
On the basis of type, the market is classified as extra heavy oil, bitumen, oil shale, and heavy oil. The oil shale segment accounted for less than two-fifths of the global unconventional oil market share in 2023 and is expected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. Advancements in technology have improved the feasibility of extracting and processing oil shale. Innovative techniques such as in-situ retorting and surface mining have made oil shale extraction more efficient and cost-effective. In addition, research and development efforts focused on optimizing retorting processes, reducing environmental impacts, and increasing energy efficiency are ongoing, further enhancing the potential of oil shale as a viable energy resource. Moreover, oil shale has the potential to provide a stable and reliable source of energy where conventional oil reserves are limited or declining. All these factors drive the demand for oil shale in unconventional oil market.
On the basis of technology, the market is categorized into steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), cyclic steam stimulation (CSS), expanding solvent steam assisted gravity drainage (ES SAGD), and others. The steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) segment accounted for more than two-fifths of the global unconventional oil market share in 2023 and is expected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. Environmental sustainability is a crucial factor that creates opportunities in SAGD. As the global focus on climate change intensifies, the oil and gas industry faces increasing pressure to minimize greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate environmental impact. SAGD operations have historically been associated with high energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions due to steam generation and combustion processes. However, ongoing efforts to implement carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, utilize cleaner energy sources, and improve water recycling and treatment systems significantly reduce the carbon intensity of SAGD projects.
By operations, the market is segmented into upstream, midstream, and downstream. The upstream segment accounted for less than half of the global unconventional oil market share in 2023 and is expected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. Access to infrastructure and transportation networks is a critical factor in driving upstream operations in unconventional oil. As compared to conventional oil fields, which are often located in established oil-producing regions with existing infrastructure, many unconventional oil plays are located in remote or undeveloped areas lacking adequate infrastructure for oil production, storage, and transportation. The availability of pipelines, railroads, and other infrastructure significantly impact the economics and viability of unconventional oil projects, as it influences transportation costs, market access, and the ability to deliver oil to refineries and end markets.
Region wise, the market is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA. North America accounted for less than three-fourths of the global unconventional oil market share in 2023 and is expected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. The abundance of unconventional oil resources in North America has provided a strategic advantage, reducing dependency on imported oil and enhancing energy security. With substantial reserves readily available within its borders, North America has been able to increase domestic production, reducing the need for foreign oil imports and mitigating geopolitical risks associated with reliance on oil from volatile regions.
Key players in the global unconventional oil market include Suncor Energy Inc., Cenovus Inc., Sunshine Oilsands Ltd., Imperial Oil Limited, ConocoPhillips Company, ExxonMobil Corporation, Canadian Natural, Royal Dutch Shell plc, Chevron Corporation, and Athabasca Oil Corporation.
Unconventional oil refers to petroleum resources that are not easily accessible or recoverable using traditional drilling methods. As compared to conventional oil that is extracted from porous reservoirs using conventional drilling techniques, unconventional oil requires advanced extraction methods due to its location in reservoirs with low permeability or trapped in unconventional geological formations. Unconventional oil resources include oil sands, shale oil, and heavy oil. Extracting unconventional oil often involves techniques such as hydraulic fracturing (fracking), steam injection, and mining processes, which are more complex and costly compared to conventional drilling methods.
Technological advancements have played a pivotal role in driving the demand for unconventional oil by unlocking vast reserves that were previously economically inaccessible or technically challenging to extract. These advancements have revolutionized the oil and gas industry by enabling the extraction of unconventional resources such as oil sands, tight oil, oil shale, and heavy oil. Furthermore, advancements in horizontal drilling technology have greatly enhanced the efficiency and productivity of unconventional oil extraction. Horizontal drilling allows operators to access larger areas of hydrocarbon-bearing formations from a single wellbore, increasing reservoir contact and improving well performance. All these factors are expected to drive the demand for the global unconventional oil market during the forecast period.
However, inconsistent regulations in unconventional oil industry are the uncertainty for investors and operators. Companies require a stable and transparent regulatory framework to make long-term investment decisions confidently. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), provisions of several federal environmental laws apply to certain activities related to oil and gas production, and proposals to expand federal regulation in this area have been highly controversial. Moreover, inconsistent regulations increase compliance costs and administrative burdens for companies operating in the unconventional oil sector. All these factors hamper the global unconventional oil market growth.
Advancements in methane detection and mitigation technologies are helping to address concerns about methane emissions associated with unconventional oil operations. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is released during various stages of oil production, including drilling, extraction, and transportation. By deploying state-of-the-art monitoring equipment and implementing best practices for leak detection and repair, operators minimize methane emissions and improve the environmental performance of their operations. All these factors are anticipated to offer new growth opportunities for the global unconventional oil market during the forecast period.
The global unconventional oil market is segmented into type, technology, operations, and region. On the basis of type, the market is classified as extra heavy oil, bitumen, oil shale, and heavy oil. As per technology, the market is categorized into steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), cyclic steam stimulation (CSS), expanding solvent steam assisted gravity drainage (ES SAGD), and others. By operations, the market is segmented into upstream, midstream, and downstream. Region wise, the market is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.
On the basis of type, the market is classified as extra heavy oil, bitumen, oil shale, and heavy oil. The oil shale segment accounted for less than two-fifths of the global unconventional oil market share in 2023 and is expected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. Advancements in technology have improved the feasibility of extracting and processing oil shale. Innovative techniques such as in-situ retorting and surface mining have made oil shale extraction more efficient and cost-effective. In addition, research and development efforts focused on optimizing retorting processes, reducing environmental impacts, and increasing energy efficiency are ongoing, further enhancing the potential of oil shale as a viable energy resource. Moreover, oil shale has the potential to provide a stable and reliable source of energy where conventional oil reserves are limited or declining. All these factors drive the demand for oil shale in unconventional oil market.
On the basis of technology, the market is categorized into steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), cyclic steam stimulation (CSS), expanding solvent steam assisted gravity drainage (ES SAGD), and others. The steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) segment accounted for more than two-fifths of the global unconventional oil market share in 2023 and is expected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. Environmental sustainability is a crucial factor that creates opportunities in SAGD. As the global focus on climate change intensifies, the oil and gas industry faces increasing pressure to minimize greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate environmental impact. SAGD operations have historically been associated with high energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions due to steam generation and combustion processes. However, ongoing efforts to implement carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, utilize cleaner energy sources, and improve water recycling and treatment systems significantly reduce the carbon intensity of SAGD projects.
By operations, the market is segmented into upstream, midstream, and downstream. The upstream segment accounted for less than half of the global unconventional oil market share in 2023 and is expected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. Access to infrastructure and transportation networks is a critical factor in driving upstream operations in unconventional oil. As compared to conventional oil fields, which are often located in established oil-producing regions with existing infrastructure, many unconventional oil plays are located in remote or undeveloped areas lacking adequate infrastructure for oil production, storage, and transportation. The availability of pipelines, railroads, and other infrastructure significantly impact the economics and viability of unconventional oil projects, as it influences transportation costs, market access, and the ability to deliver oil to refineries and end markets.
Region wise, the market is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA. North America accounted for less than three-fourths of the global unconventional oil market share in 2023 and is expected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. The abundance of unconventional oil resources in North America has provided a strategic advantage, reducing dependency on imported oil and enhancing energy security. With substantial reserves readily available within its borders, North America has been able to increase domestic production, reducing the need for foreign oil imports and mitigating geopolitical risks associated with reliance on oil from volatile regions.
Key players in the global unconventional oil market include Suncor Energy Inc., Cenovus Inc., Sunshine Oilsands Ltd., Imperial Oil Limited, ConocoPhillips Company, ExxonMobil Corporation, Canadian Natural, Royal Dutch Shell plc, Chevron Corporation, and Athabasca Oil Corporation.
Key findings of the study
- On the basis of type, the heavy oil segment is anticipated to grow at the fastest CAGR of 4.8% during the forecast period.
- By technology, the steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) segment is anticipated to grow at the fastest CAGR during the forecast period.
- On the basis of operations, the upstream segment is anticipated to grow at the fastest CAGR of 4.5% during the forecast period.
- Region-wise, North America has the highest share in 2022 in terms of revenue.
Key Benefits For Stakeholders
- This report provides a quantitative analysis of the market segments, current trends, estimations, and dynamics of the unconventional oil market analysis from 2023 to 2033 to identify the prevailing unconventional oil market opportunities.
- The market research is offered along with information related to key drivers, restraints, and opportunities.
- Porter's five forces analysis highlights the potency of buyers and suppliers to enable stakeholders make profit-oriented business decisions and strengthen their supplier-buyer network.
- In-depth analysis of the unconventional oil market segmentation assists to determine the prevailing market opportunities.
- Major countries in each region are mapped according to their revenue contribution to the global market.
- Market player positioning facilitates benchmarking and provides a clear understanding of the present position of the market players.
- The report includes the analysis of the regional as well as global unconventional oil market trends, key players, market segments, application areas, and market growth strategies.
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Key Market Segments
By Type
- Oil Shale
- Bitumen
- Extra Heavy Oil
- Heavy Oil
By Technology
- Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD)
- Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS)
- Expanding Solvent Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (ES SAGD)
- Others
By Operations
- Upstream
- Downstream
- Midstream
By Region
- North America
- U.S.
- Canada
- Mexico
- Europe
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
- France
- UK
- Rest of Europe
- Asia-Pacific
- China
- India
- Australia
- South Korea
- Japan
- Rest of Asia-Pacific
- LAMEA
- Brazil
- South Africa
- Saudi Arabia
- Rest of LAMEA
- Suncor Energy Inc.
- ConocoPhillips Company
- Exxon Mobil Corporation
- Royal Dutch Shell plc
- Imperial Oil Limited
- Canadian Natural
- Chevron Corporation
- Cenovus Inc.
- Sunshine Oilsands Ltd.
- Athabasca Oil Corporation
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Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 2: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CHAPTER 3: MARKET OVERVIEW
CHAPTER 4: UNCONVENTIONAL OIL MARKET, BY TYPE
CHAPTER 5: UNCONVENTIONAL OIL MARKET, BY TECHNOLOGY
CHAPTER 6: UNCONVENTIONAL OIL MARKET, BY OPERATIONS
CHAPTER 7: UNCONVENTIONAL OIL MARKET, BY REGION
CHAPTER 8: COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
CHAPTER 9: COMPANY PROFILES
List of Tables
List of Figures
Executive Summary
According to the report, the unconventional oil market was valued at $666 billion in 2022, and is estimated to reach $940.3 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 3.6% from 2023 to 2032.Unconventional oils are typically identified by their characteristics. The heavier the oil is, for example, oil sand (bitumen) and oil shale (kerogen), the more it is carbon laden, higher in sulphur, and filled with toxic impurities. Unconventional oils are typically much heavier than even the lowest-quality conventional oil.
Unconventional oil resources are typically more expensive to produce than conventional oil, often in the $40-$80/barrel range for production. However, the production of unconventional oil is increased due to rise in demand for fossil fuels and falling reserves of conventional oil. The unconventional oil 'revolution” has drastically changed the world energy landscape. Advancement in technology have made initially hard-to-access oil reserves more economically recoverable. These advancements have triggered changes in global oil supply, demand and transport. It has also affected global energy access and national economies. For instance, the U.S. transition from a historical oil importer to a net exporter of oil due to the exploitation of tight oil.
Growth in unconventional hydrocarbon supply over the last 20 years reflects advances in relevant technologies and declining costs. In 2020, unconventional accounted for around 34% of global hydrocarbon production, and they represent around 50% of current reserves under development. However, they have also attracted criticism from NGOs owing to perceived environmental issues associated with their production. The International Energy Agency projects that North America is the largest contributor of unconventional oils such as extra-heavy oil, bitumen, and kerogen with estimates of 50% more unconventional oil than total conventional reserves in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Eurasia, followed by Latin America.
On Sept 2023, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) announced $17.2 million to evaluate the potential for unconventional oil production through a combined process that uses captured carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to recover residual oil called CO2 enhanced oil recovery. In the upcoming years, the uncoventional oil market trends is anticipated to rise due to developments in technology, government initiatives, and growing unvonventional oil industry and consumer awareness of the value of sustainable practices. Thus, above mentioned all factors bolster the expansion of the unconventional oil market.
The unconventional oil market scope is segmented on the basis of type, extraction method, application, and region. On the basis of type, it is classified into heavy oil, extra heavy oil, bitumen, and oil shale. As per extraction method, the market is bifurcated into traditional drilling techniques and advanced extraction techniques. Depending on application, it is divided into oil and gas and lubricant. Region wise, the market is studied across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.
Based on region, North America held the highest market share in terms of revenue in 2022, accounting for more than three-fourths of the global market revenue, and is likely to dominate the unconventional oil market forecast period. The Asia-Pacific region presents significant potential in unconventional oil market growth. Emerging markets, such as India, China, and Southeast Asian countries, have witnessed rapid industrial growth which will lead to increased demand for unconventional oil. The abovementioned factors will provide uncoventional oil market opportunities for the development during the forecast period.
Presently, Asia-Pacific accounts for the largest share of the market, followed by Europe and North America. The major companies profiled in this report include Canadian Natural, Chevron, Continental Resources Inc., ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil Corporation, Imperial Oil Limited, PDVSA- Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A., Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras, Sasol Limited, and Suncor Energy Inc.
Impact analysis:
The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has resulted in an unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows. The ongoing war has created political and economic instability, resulting in a decline in consumer purchasing power within the region. Additionally, the pandemic has severely disrupted supply chains, leading to challenges in production and distribution for manufacturers. The economic crises breed uncertainty and market instability, fostering heightened price volatility and fluctuations in demand. Economic recessions also prompt market consolidation, while governmental interventions aimed at stimulating growth can lead to alterations in environmental policies and regulations, directly impacting the market. Overall, the effects of an economic crisis on the unconventional oil market are complex and multifaceted. While funding constraints and reduced demand can pose challenges, stimulus measures, innovation opportunities, and a heightened focus on sustainability can create a more favorable environment for the growth of drilling technologies.Key findings of the study
On the basis of type, the oil shale segment accounts for more than one-third of the uncoventional oil market share, in terms of revenue, in 2022.On the basis of extraction method, the advanced extraction techniques segments accounts nearly three-fourths of the unconventional oil market size, in terms of revenue, in 2022.
On the basis of application, the oil and gas segment accounts for nearly four- fifths of the market share, in terms of revenue, in 2022.
Region-wise, North America accounts for more than three-fourths of the market share, in terms of revenue, in 2022.
Companies Mentioned
- Suncor Energy Inc.
- ConocoPhillips Company
- Exxon Mobil Corporation
- Royal Dutch Shell plc
- Imperial Oil Limited
- Canadian Natural
- Chevron Corporation
- Cenovus Inc.
- Sunshine Oilsands Ltd.
- Athabasca Oil Corporation
Methodology
The analyst offers exhaustive research and analysis based on a wide variety of factual inputs, which largely include interviews with industry participants, reliable statistics, and regional intelligence. The in-house industry experts play an instrumental role in designing analytic tools and models, tailored to the requirements of a particular industry segment. The primary research efforts include reaching out participants through mail, tele-conversations, referrals, professional networks, and face-to-face interactions.
They are also in professional corporate relations with various companies that allow them greater flexibility for reaching out to industry participants and commentators for interviews and discussions.
They also refer to a broad array of industry sources for their secondary research, which typically include; however, not limited to:
- Company SEC filings, annual reports, company websites, broker & financial reports, and investor presentations for competitive scenario and shape of the industry
- Scientific and technical writings for product information and related preemptions
- Regional government and statistical databases for macro analysis
- Authentic news articles and other related releases for market evaluation
- Internal and external proprietary databases, key market indicators, and relevant press releases for market estimates and forecast
Furthermore, the accuracy of the data will be analyzed and validated by conducting additional primaries with various industry experts and KOLs. They also provide robust post-sales support to clients.
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Table Information
| Report Attribute | Details |
|---|---|
| No. of Pages | 304 |
| Published | April 2024 |
| Forecast Period | 2023 - 2033 |
| Estimated Market Value ( USD | $ 354.9 billion |
| Forecasted Market Value ( USD | $ 530.2 billion |
| Compound Annual Growth Rate | 4.2% |
| Regions Covered | Global |
| No. of Companies Mentioned | 10 |
