U.S. Roofing Market Report 2024

Clay & Porcelain Roofing Tile Forecast to See Robust Growth through 2028

US roofing demand is forecast to decline at an annual average rate of less than 1% to 276.5 million squares in 2028. Real growth will be restrained by large increases in reroofing demand in 2020, 2021, and 2023, all due to severe weather events affecting the US - particularly the large South region. Those home and business owners who replaced older or worn roofs will be unlikely to do so again in the near term.

Market value is forecast to stagnate, representing a significant deceleration from the period that ran from 2018 to 2023. Most roofing product prices will moderate following spikes that were attributable to supply chain issues and high raw material costs. Although real demand will decline, value demand will avoid losses because of the increasing use of higher value roofing products with enhanced performance and aesthetic properties.

This industry report analyzes the $25 billion US market for roofing. It presents historical demand data (2013, 2018, and 2023) and forecasts (2028 and 2033) as well as annual data for years 2020-2027. Unit demand and value demand data is shown for roofing by material (asphalt shingle, metal, bituminous, plastic, rubber, tile, wood), product type (Standard laminated shingles, high-performance shingle, three-tab shingle, standing seam, metal shingle, metal shake, metal tile, corrugated panel, modified bitumen, built-up roofing, thermoplastic polyolefin, polyvinyl chloride, ethylene-propylene, neoprene, butyl, concrete tile, clay tile, porcelain tile, wood shingle, wood shake, spray polyurethane foam, composite shingle, synthetic roofing, slate, liquid-applied roofing, tensioned fabric, vegetative roofing, solar roofing) and market (new and reroofing demand in both residential and commercial buildings). The study also evaluates company market share and competitive analysis on industry competitors including GAF, Owens Corning, CertainTeed, and Johns Manville.

Rising Single-Family Housing Starts Will Boost Demand for New Residential Roofing

Demand for new residential roofing applications is forecast to rise as single-family housing starts return to growth after two consecutive years of decline following the demand surges of 2021. This will boost demand for more durable roofing materials - such as high-performance laminates (in lieu of standard laminated shingles), metal, and tile roofing - to better withstand severe weather conditions. Metal roofing will see solid growth in new roofing applications, as homebuilders and homeowners - especially in coastal regions of the US - specify metal roofing to meet modern building codes for weather resistance.

Growth for Solar Roofing Still Strong, Although Gains are Forecast to Decelerate

Although it remains a niche product when compared to more traditional roofing products, solar roofing has quickly risen in popularity and will experience strong growth throughout the forecast period, albeit at a slower rate than the historical period. Changes to the net energy metering policy in California (one of the largest markets for solar roofing), along with higher interest rates, are just some of the issues facing consumers thinking about purchasing solar roofing.

New regulations enacted by the California Public Utilities Commission went into effect on April 2023, which dictated that new solar customers would be paid at least 75% less from utility companies when compared to current rates (residents with existing solar systems are exempt) for excess power produced. This can reduce the incentive of Californians to install solar roofing, as these homeowners would now earn less money from sending power back to the grid than previously. Other states could follow suit, which would potentially dampen solar roofing demand.

Historical Market Trends

Shifts in demand for roofing can vary from year to year and are determined by numerous factors, primarily those related to building construction activity. They include:

• levels of housing starts, particularly in the single-family housing segment
• the size and age of the US housing stock
• interest rates - low interest rates may encourage home and business owners to take out lines of credit often used to fund roof repair and replacement projects
• the number and types of commercial buildings erected or repaired in any given year
• the type of roof (e.g., steep-slope or low-slope) installed on a structure that will be repaired or replaced
• the types of roofing materials most often specified by contractors and other consumers in a particular region of the US
• the roofing materials originally installed on the structure

The US has a significant number of homes and businesses with roofs that are at or near the end of their life expectancies. Thus, age-related reroofing is the most significant driver of roofing demand in the US.

Additionally, multiple other variables can affect demand for roofing in a particular year or over a short period of time. Among these are:

• weather conditions, especially outbreaks of severe weather that can cause widespread damage to roofs (e.g., hurricanes and tropical storms, tornadoes, hailstorms, and winter storms)
• changes and modifications to state and local building codes
• the adoption of legislation (such as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) that can cause a temporary increase in reroofing activity
• insurers requiring homeowners to replace older or worn roofs with newer materials that better resist severe weather on condition of maintaining coverage
• changes in the price of raw materials (e.g., asphalt, metal, lumber) that can cause the cost of roofing materials per square to increase or decrease sharply

Roofing demand advanced rapidly in 2020, a marked contrast to the weaker demand levels of 2018 and 2019. This growth was spurred by multiple outbreaks of severe weather across the US and an increase in residential roofing demand precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Levels increased again in 2021 despite continued restraint from supply chain issues and increased inflation. Roofing demand in volume terms declined in 2022 due to a loss in housing starts and weakness in commercial building construction, but market value continued to exhibit growth because of continuing inflation and supply chain disruptions. Roofing demand - both in value and volume terms - picked up in 2023, due to high levels of reroofing activity after severe weather events and increases commercial building construction.

New vs. Reroofing Trends

Roofing products are used in two main applications based on when they are installed:

• new construction, which comprises newly erected buildings on which roofs are installed for the first time
• reroofing, which encompasses buildings on which roofs or parts of roofs are being repaired or replaced

Factors that influence the type of roofing used during new and reroofing projects include:

• the type of roofing material previously installed on the building or used on nearby buildings
• customer interest in one type of roofing over another
• the cost of a project (for both materials and installation)

Reroofing activity will be limited by the high level of roof repair and replacement in 2020, 2021, and 2023, as structures that were worked on in that timeframe are unlikely to require additional repairs any time soon. The rising use of more durable materials that will need replaced less often is also a factor.

Demand for roofing in new construction will be boosted by an improvement in single-family housing starts. However, greater gains will be hindered by the high 2023 base for construction of roofing-intensive manufacturing plants and other industrial buildings.

Product Lifespans

Manufacturers of roofing continually look for ways to make their materials more durable as consumers - trying to avoid the expense and hassle of roof repairs and replacement - are generally willing to pay more for products that have longer lifespans. Key methods of extending the lifespan of roofing products include:

• the use of laminated asphalt shingles - with multiple layers of asphalt and fiberglass - that better resist leaks, uplift, and impacts
• the addition of chemical modifiers (such as styrene-butadiene-styrene and atactic polypropylene) to bituminous membranes to enhance their resistance to environmental degradation
• the use of thicker scrims on bituminous, single-ply plastic, and rubber roofing membranes to enhance puncture and tear resistance
• the application of specially designed mineral and ceramic granules to a wide range of steep- and low-slope roofing materials to better deflect sunlight that can cause premature product degradation

Another way the lifespan of low-slope roofing materials can be extended is by applying a liquid-applied roof coating - which can be made from acrylic, asphaltic, silicone, or urethane compounds - on top of existing roofing materials to:

• rejuvenate a worn or lightly damaged surface by sealing cracks and filling gaps between materials
• completely cover an existing roof to form a new surface material

While these roof coatings are used as cool roofing products (most are light-colored compounds that deflect sunlight and minimize heat transfer), in many cases these materials can extend the lifespan of a roof by several years, either by repairing a damaged surface or by protecting an existing roof material from further damage caused by exposure to the elements.