China Baby Food - Market Assessment and Forecasts to 2029

The number of live births in China declined by 47.6% during 2017-23, reaching nine million in 2023. This resulted in a baby population of 29.2 million in 2023. The GDP of China grew by 5.2% in 2023, while consumer price inflation stood at 0.4%. Overall sales in value terms declined in recent years with the sector contracting at a negative CAGR of 0.1% during 2017-23. Likewise, in volume terms, sales decreased during 2017-23, dropping at a negative CAGR of 4.1%. Baby milks remained the largest category in value terms with over 90% of the baby food sector, distantly followed by baby cereals & dry meals. Feihe International, Nestlé, and The a2 Milk Company together accounted for 37.9% of value sales in 2023. E-retailers remained the leading distribution channel, accounting for over 30% of overall value sales in 2023. The analyst estimates that the number of live births will decrease over the forecast period in China. The market for baby food in the country is expected to increase in value terms during 2023-29, registering a CAGR of 0.3%.

Key Highlights

• Value sales of baby milks fell from CNY83.8 billion ($12.4 billion) in 2017 to CNY82.9 billion ($11.7 billion) in 2023, at a negative CAGR of 0.2% during this period.
• Volumes of baby cereals & dry meals decreased from 30.21 million kg in 2017 to 24.06 million kg in 2023, at a negative CAGR of 3.7%.
• Value sales of the baby wet meals & others category rose from CNY2.8 billion ($421.2 million) in 2017 to CNY3.1 billion ($442.3 million) in 2023, at a CAGR of 1.6%.
• PCC of baby finger food increased by 33.3% during 2017-23.
• During the same period, PCC of baby drinks fell by 75%.

Scope

This report brings together multiple data sources to provide a comprehensive overview of the baby food sector in China, as part of the analyst’s global coverage of the sector. It includes an analysis of the following:

• Market environment: The report provides a comparative analysis of the value and volume shares of China against the Asia-Pacific and global baby food sectors. Additionally, the per capita consumption (PCC)* of and per capita expenditure (PCE)* on baby food in China are compared at regional and global levels.
• Background: Provides an overview of births, consumer trends, sociodemographic trends, working women population, and regulations in the Chinese baby food sector.
• Category coverage and competitive landscape: The report offers an overview of growth at a sector level and provides an analysis of five categories: baby milks, baby cereals & dry meals, baby wet meals & others, baby finger food, and baby drinks. These categories are analyzed by value, volume, and CAGR for the 2017-29 period. The analysis also includes the PCC of and PCE on baby food in China, by category. The report provides an analysis of leading manufacturers and brands in the Chinese baby food sector in 2023 and their sales shares in each category.
• Production and trade: The report provides an analysis of imports and exports in the Chinese baby food sector.
• Distribution channels: Provides analysis on the leading distribution channels at both sector and category level in 2023.
• Economic background: The report also provides an outlook on macroeconomic indicators in China, with a snapshot of the economy and labor market.

Reasons to Buy

• Evaluate important changes in consumer behavior and identify profitable markets and areas for product innovation.
• Analyse current and forecast behavior trends in each category to identify the best opportunities to exploit.
• Detailed understanding of consumption by individual product categories in order to align your sales and marketing efforts with the latest trends in the market.
• Investigates which categories are performing the best and how this is changing market dynamics.