L3/L4 Autonomous Driving and Startups Research Report, 2025

Robotaxi steps towards scaling during 2026-2030, L3 Personal Vehicles Open New Commercial Opportunities

The publisher categorizes L3-L4 autonomous driving into seven application scenarios based on the operational environment from 'closed → semi-closed → open' and the driving speed of autonomous vehicles: Robotaxi, L3-L4 personal vehicles, unmanned delivery, unmanned shuttles, port autonomous driving, mining autonomous driving, and long-haul logistics autonomous driving. This report will focus on the Robotaxi and L3-L4 personal vehicle scenarios.

After the accelerated consolidation of Robotaxi market in 2023-2024, leading Robotaxi players are gradually transitioning from unmanned demonstration operations to commercial operations. Many companies view 2026 as the first year of large-scale development for Robotaxi, with plans for mass deployment. With Beijing and Wuhan officially announcing the launch of L3 autonomous private cars in 2025, setting the first benchmark for the domestic intelligent driving industry, major automakers are accelerating their layouts, targeting 2025-2027 as the critical phase for mass production of L3 autonomous vehicles. Among them, Li Auto plans to achieve supervised L3 intelligent driving by 2025.

L3-L4 Autonomous Driving Application Scenario 1: Robotaxi Market

Robotaxi Trend 1: The year of 2023-2024 is the Adjustment Period for Robotaxi Industry Development

Since Google launched its autonomous vehicle project in 2009, autonomous driving technology has gradually entered the public eye, sparking widespread global attention and investment. According to the latest data from the California DMV, the total test mileage of autonomous vehicles in California in 2024 was 4.5 million miles, a 50% decrease from 2023. The number of test permits with human safety drivers has significantly decreased, with only 31 companies holding such permits, but only 11 actually conducted public road tests in 2024, and 9 have stopped testing and exited the program. In terms of unmanned testing, only 6 companies have obtained permits, including AutoX, WeRide, Waymo, Zoox, and Nuro. This change reflects that after more than a decade of technological development, business model exploration, and market trial and error, the Robotaxi industry has entered a critical adjustment period in 2023-2024. This phase is not only a test of technological and market maturity but also a watershed for the survival of the fittest within the industry.

In 2023-2024, some L4 autonomous driving companies were forced to exit or make strategic adjustments due to financial pressures. These companies were mostly early entrants in the market, focusing on technological breakthroughs but failing to achieve self-sufficiency due to unclear business models or poor market expansion. In 2024, Cruise announced its dissolution, and in February 2024, Tier 1 giant Aptiv optimized its layout by reducing its stake in the autonomous driving company Motional, focusing on its core strengths.

During the industry adjustment period, Robotaxi sector presented a mixed picture. Capital markets became more cautious, with funds gradually concentrating on autonomous driving companies that have clear advantages in L4 technology and have formed initial business model loops.

In July 2024, Waymo secured a $5 billion strategic investment, further solidifying its leading position in the Robotaxi field. Meanwhile, WeRide and Pony.ai successfully listed on NASDAQ, becoming heavyweight players in the industry. These listings not only brought more financial support to the companies themselves but also injected new vitality into the entire industry, signaling that the Robotaxi sector is gradually moving towards a mature development stage after the adjustment period.

Robotaxi Trend 2: Tech-Driven Autonomous Driving Companies Lead in Robotaxi Operations including promotion speed, operation coverage and vehicle deployment scale

There are three main types of players in the Robotaxi sector:

1) Traditional automakers like SAIC and GAC, and new carmakers like Tesla and XPeng. Automakers are entering the Robotaxi space to seize the future opportunity of unmanned mobility.

2) Mobility platforms like Ruqi and Caocao. These platforms enter the Robotaxi market through two approaches: one focuses on platform construction and operations, collaborating with automakers and autonomous driving algorithm providers to jointly advance autonomous driving services. They use a 'mixed operations' model for dispatching, creating an open mobility platform. The other is a 'full-stack' development model, where the platform independently develops autonomous vehicles, platform technology, and algorithm systems, handling all aspects of operations. This approach gives the platform full control over R&D, deployment, and maintenance, allowing for better resource integration, system optimization, and rapid iteration.

3) L4 autonomous driving solution providers and Robotaxi operators like Waymo, Zoox, Baidu Apollo, Pony.ai, WeRide, and AutoX. Facing commercialization challenges, these companies face technical, cost, and policy constraints in scaling up, resulting in insufficient data and limited cost reductions, so adopting strategies like 'downgrading to L2++' for mass production and 'scenario progression' to accumulate commercialization experience, alleviate financial pressure, and reuse more road data.

In the commercialization of Robotaxi, tech-driven autonomous driving companies (the third type of player) like Waymo, Baidu Apollo, Pony.ai, and WeRide are leading in terms of commercialization speed, operational coverage, and vehicle deployment scale compared to traditional automakers (the first type) and mobility platforms (the second type).

Japanese automakers are taking a different approach by partnering with strong L4 autonomous driving system providers to accelerate their Robotaxi layout, especially in the promising Chinese market. For example, Nissan has partnered with L4 autonomous driving system provider WeRide in China, focusing on Suzhou High-Speed Rail New City Intelligent Connected Vehicle Demonstration Zone. This project has successfully entered the commercialization pilot phase, starting charging services in December 2024.

In contrast, German automakers are currently focusing on R&D and market promotion of L3/L4 personal passenger car autonomous driving systems, showing less enthusiasm for Robotaxi. Markus Verge, CTO of Mercedes-Benz, stated that the company's core focus is not on entering the Robotaxi field but on L3/L4 autonomous driving system R&D and promotion.

Among Chinese domestic brands, SAIC, Changan, and Chery have entered the Robotaxi demonstration operation phase, with deployment scales not exceeding 100 vehicles. SAIC launched its Robotaxi business in 2021 and was approved for unmanned demonstration applications in 2024. Currently in the demonstration application phase, it does not charge users, with nearly 100 Robotaxi vehicles deployed.

Robotaxi Trend 3: in 2026-2030, Robotaxi will enter the large-scale commercial development phase, with 2026 as the first year of scaling

Zhang Ning, Vice President of Pony.ai, estimates that deploying thousands of Robotaxi vehicles is necessary to achieve operational breakeven. Pony.ai plans to deploy a thousand Robotaxi vehicles in 2025 and double that number in 2026. Additionally, Pony.ai is accelerating the global landing of its L4 business through strategic partnerships with automakers, mobility platforms, and autonomous driving technology companies, having already entered markets in South Korea, Luxembourg, and Singapore. WeRide plans to achieve large-scale Robotaxi commercialization by 2026, aiming to significantly reduce per-kilometer mobility costs through scale operations, making them lower than traditional taxis.

Tesla will launch Cybercab in 2026, priced under $30,000, equipped with an 'end-to-end' large model algorithm, and committed to a mapless solution, with operations expected to start in the second half of 2026. XPeng Motors announced it will launch a new generation of competitive Robotaxi in 2026.

In addition to new carmakers, traditional domestic brands like Geely are focusing on building an open operational platform in the domestic market, integrating Robotaxi from various brands through its Caocao Mobility platform, and plans to launch a customized Geely-branded Robotaxi model in 2026. In the international market, its Zeekr brand has partnered with Waymo, planning to deploy related products in the U.S. market by 2025. GAC plans to deploy a thousand Robotaxi vehicles with Pony.ai by 2025, while its joint venture with Didi, Andi Technology, is also planning to start production in 2025.

Robotaxi Trend 4: China and the U.S. Lead in Robotaxi, with Leading Companies Moving Towards Fully Unmanned Robotaxi Demonstration Applications

For Robotaxi companies, removing safety drivers is a key step towards profitability. The salaries, benefits, and training costs of safety drivers are significant components of Robotaxi operational costs. In first-tier cities, an experienced safety driver's annual salary can range from 100,000 to 200,000 yuan. For a Robotaxi fleet with hundreds or even thousands of vehicles, the annual human cost can reach tens or even hundreds of millions of yuan. Removing safety drivers can significantly reduce these costs, improving the company's profitability. Additionally, removing safety drivers can increase the actual operational time and utilization rate of vehicles. To accelerate Robotaxi development, cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Chongqing have successively released policies for unmanned commercial pilot programs.

L4 Autonomous Driving Application Scenario 2: L3-L4 Personal Passenger Car Market

Trend 1: The First Year of L3 Autonomous Driving Commercialization Begins, with Multiple Local Governments Introducing Supportive Policies to Boost Industry Development

In December 2024, Beijing released 'Beijing Autonomous Vehicle Regulations,' clarifying expansion of autonomous driving applications to 'personal vehicles' and set to take effect on April 1, 2025. This regulation provides a clear legal basis for the application of L3 autonomous driving technology in personal vehicles, eliminating legal and regulatory uncertainties, offering a stable policy environment for automakers and related companies. In the same month, Wuhan released the 'Wuhan Autonomous Vehicle Regulations,' supporting the demonstration and commercial pilot applications of intelligent connected vehicles in smart passenger cars, meaning consumers will have more opportunities to experience the convenience of L3 and above autonomous driving technologies.

L3 Autonomous Driving Technology Enters a New Phase, with Legal Support as a Key Driving Force.

Trend 2: 2025 Marks the First Year of L3 Autonomous Driving Commercialization, with Automakers Preparing for L3 Autonomous Driving, Targeting 2025-2027 as the Key Phase for Mass Production

L3 Autonomous Driving Technology is About to Enter a Market Explosion, with Major Automakers Layout to Seize Market Opportunities.

XPeng has set 2025 as the key milestone for mass production of L3 autonomous driving in personal vehicles. Li Auto also aims to achieve L3 autonomous driving mass production by 2025. Tesla, as a global leader in autonomous driving technology, plans to accelerate the landing of its FSD unsupervised version in 2025, potentially triggering new changes in the L3 market.

SAIC's IM Motors and GAC both view 2025 as a critical year for L3 autonomous driving mass production. GAC further plans to achieve L3+ autonomous driving mass production by 2026 and move towards L4 by 2027. Geely, through its Zeekr brand, obtained L3 pilot qualifications in Shanghai and Hangzhou in 2023, achieving L3 in large-scale urban scenarios. Nissan plans to launch ProPILOT 3.0 with L3 functionality by 2027 and ProPILOT 4.0 with L4 functionality by 2030. BMW obtained L3 test licenses for Shanghai's elevated roads in 2023 and has already delivered L3-capable vehicles in Germany, laying a solid foundation for its subsequent mass production plans.