FMCG Trends in South Africa 2024

The FMCG trends report includes information on FMCG sales, prices, affordability, private labels, the shift to online, use of technology and spaza shops. There is also information on sustainability, healthy products, food waste and loss prevention, challenges and competition. 

Introduction

• The retail sector contributed almost R1.4bn in sales to South Africa’s economy in 2023, with the FMCG’s sector’s contribution estimated at R845.6bn, and growing from the previous year.
• While retail sales have benefited as loadshedding eased in 2024, FMCG revenue continues to be affected by pressure on consumer spending. 
• Other challenges such as poor logistics and infrastructure and illicit trade have also held back growth in the sector. 
• Trends include consumers buying down the growing contribution of online sales and the increasing focus by retailers and producers on selling to informal traders. 
• FMCG companies are increasingly turning to technology solutions, to better understand consumers and to reduce costs.

FMCG Trends

• Buying down by consumers.
• FMCG companies’ expansion into the continent has slowed.
• Greater use of promotions by retailers.
• Growing focus on sustainable retail.
• Growth in private label brands is slowing.
• Increased online sales.
• Increased use of technology such as AI to better understand consumers and reduce costs.
• Increasing demand for healthy products.
• Inflation rates of all food product categories have declined since October 2023.

FMCG Market Opportunities

• Broadening FMCG exports to more countries.
• Growing online sales.
• Healthy foods and products.
• Re-engineering products to reduce production costs.
• Remodelling distribution to the informal market.
• Retail promotions.
• Sustainable retail practices, such as recyclable packaging.
• Use of AI and other technologies to better manage stock, improve efficiencies and target consumers.

FMCG Market Challenges

• Consumer spending has been squeezed by poor economic growth and high inflation.
• FMCG manufacture and retail is highly concentrated.
• Illicit trade.
• Loadshedding.
• Opposition by unions to self-checkout.
• Poor logistics.
• Retail expansion into the rest of Africa has slowed due to logistics and currency challenges.
• Trade measures by other countries against South Africa.

FMCG Market Outlook

• Consumer spending is under pressure due to low economic growth, high unemployment and cost of livings increases. 
• Retailers are pursuing a number of strategies to grow sales such as private label, online delivery, improving distribution to the informal sector and developing premium and discount store concepts.
• A major retailer has forecast an improvement in consumer confidence, as wage growth aligns more with inflation and interest rates decline, and with no loadshedding having taken place in about six months. 
• The absence of loadshedding eliminates additional energy costs, and the two-pot retirement system could provide a small boost to consumer spending.