Colorectal Cancer - Eight-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis

This report covers the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and China) and includes an assessment of the disease epidemiology and 10-year patient-based forecast (PBF) across the 8MM for marketed and late-stage pipeline therapies, with a launch date assessment by market for Colorectal Cancer (CRC).

These sales forecasts leverage data on pharmaceutical sales and drug availability from the World Markets Healthcare (WMH) and POLI Price Intelligence databases.

CRC, also called osteocolorectal cancer is a rare blood disorder that causes bone marrow (BM) fibrosis. Despite being a rare blood cancer, CRC is a blockbuster market and is expected to grow from sales of $2.39 billion in 2021 to $2.89 billion in 2031 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9%.

Key Highlights

Report deliverables include a PowerPoint report and Excel-based forecast model
Forecasts includes the 8MM
Forecasts covers from 2021-2031
The publisher valued the colorectal cancer market in the 8MM at $2.39 billion and expects the market to increase to $2.89 billion by 2031
Incyte, GSK and CTI BioPharma are expected to take market-leading position in 2031
A moderate level of unmet need will remain for most colorectal cancer patient populations during the forecast period
The late-stage pipeline in colorectal cancer is robust and is likely to provide significant clinical benefit to many colorectal cancer patient populations, with fierce competition expected

This report includes an assessment of the disease epidemiology and 10-year patient-based forecast (PBF) across the 8MM for marketed and late-stage pipeline therapies, with a launch date assessment by market for colorectal cancer (CRC). These sales forecasts leverage data on pharmaceutical sales and drug availability from the World Markets Healthcare (WMH) and POLI Price Intelligence databases.

Despite being a rare blood cancer, CRC is a blockbuster market and is expected to grow from sales of $2.39 billion in 2021 to $2.89 billion in 2031, as shown in Figure 1, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9%. Peak-year sales are set to be reached in 2027, driven by the approvals of several promising late-stage pipeline agents and the continued clinical dominance of Jakafi/Jakavi (ruxolitinib). In 2028, Jakafi/Jakavi is set to come off-patent in the US, which will greatly decrease its total market sales. However, the loss of total market sales will be somewhat recuperated in 2028 and beyond by the additional growth in market value of other pipeline Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors and targeted therapies, with sales of these agents being driven by ameliorating critical unmet needs within the CRC treatment paradigm.

Several markets across the 8MM will experience growth driven by common drivers -

Approvals of late-stage pipeline agents, including novel JAK inhibitors and targeted therapies, which will partially meet critical unmet clinical needs
Decreased reliance on generic immunomodulatory agents, androgens, and erythropoietin-stimulating agents
Increased utilization of novel combination regimens with premium-priced agents

Common barriers to market growth experienced across the 8MM primarily include a series of patent expiries:

Patent expiry of Jakafi/Jakavi
Patent expiry of Vonjo (pacritinib)
Patent expiry of Inrebic (fedratinib)

Scope

– Overview of colorectal cancer, including epidemiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.

Annualized colorectal cancer therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns forecast from 2021 to 2031.
Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping, and implications of these factors for the colorectal cancer therapeutics market.
Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for colorectal cancer treatment. The most promising candidates in Phase III and Phase IIb development are profiled.
Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global colorectal cancer therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications

Reasons to Buy

– Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global colorectal cancer therapeutics market.
Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global colorectal cancer therapeutics market in the future.
Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships

1 Colorectal Cancer: Executive Summary

1.1 The colorectal cancer market will grow to $21.8B by 2031, at a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%
1.2 Combination therapies and immunotherapies for distinct segments are key R&D strategies in CRC
1.3 The level of unmet clinical need in colorectal cancer remains high during the forecast period, despite dramatic improvements by historical standards
1.4 The colorectal cancer pipeline is robust, with plenty of room for new market entrants
1.5 What do physicians think?

2 Introduction

2.1 Catalyst
2.2 Related reports
2.3 Upcoming reports

3 Disease Overview

3.1 Etiology and pathophysiology
3.1.1 Etiology
3.1.2 Pathophysiology
3.1.3 Classification and staging systems

4 Epidemiology

4.1 Disease background
4.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
4.3 Global and historical trends
4.4 Forecast methodology
4.4.1 Sources
4.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods
4.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of CRC
4.4.4 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of CRC by AJCC stage at diagnosis
4.4.5 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of CRC by recurrence of stages I-III into stage IV disease
4.4.6 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of CRC by molecular markers
4.4.7 Forecast assumptions and methods: five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of CRC
4.5 Epidemiological forecast for CRC (2021-31)
4.5.1 Diagnosed incident cases of CRC
4.5.2 Age-specific diagnosed incident cases of CRC
4.5.3 Sex-specific diagnosed incident cases of CRC
4.5.4 Diagnosed incident cases of CRC by AJCC stage at diagnosis
4.5.5 Diagnosed incident cases of CRC by recurrence of stages I-III into

stage IV disease

4.5.6 Diagnosed incident cases of CRC by molecular markers
4.5.7 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of CRC
4.6 Discussion
4.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
4.6.2 COVID-19 impact
4.6.3 Limitations of the analysis
4.6.4 Strengths of the analysis

5 Disease Management

5.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview
5.2 KOL insights on disease management
5.2.1 US-specific KOL insights on disease management
5.2.2 5EU-specific KOL insights on disease management
5.2.3 Japan-specific KOL insights on disease management
5.2.4 China-specific KOL insights on disease management

6 Current Treatment Options

6.1 Overview

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

7.1 Overview
7.2 Improving treatments for patients with KRAS/NRAS mutations
7.3 Improving treatment options in precision medicine
7.4 Overcoming resistance to EGFR- and VEGF-targeted therapies
7.5 Reduced age for routine disease screening

8 R&D Strategies

8.1 Overview of R&D strategies
8.1.1 Targeting MSS patients with immunotherapy
8.1.2 Combination Therapies
8.2 Clinical trials design
8.2.1 Increasing adoption of secondary quality of life endpoints
8.2.2 Increasing adoption of surrogate endpoints

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview
9.2 Promising drugs in clinical development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

10.1 Overview
10.2 Competitive assessment

11 Current and Future Players

11.1 Overview
11.2 Deal-making trends

12 Market Outlook

12.1 Global Markets
12.1.1 Forecast
12.1.2 Drivers and barriers - global issues
12.2 US
12.2.1 Forecast
12.2.2 Key events
12.2.3 Drivers and barriers
12.3 5EU
12.3.1 Forecast
12.3.2 Key events
12.3.3 Drivers and barriers
12.4 Japan
12.4.1 Forecast
12.4.2 Key events
12.4.3 Drivers and barriers
12.5 China
12.5.1 Forecast
12.5.2 Key events
12.5.3 Drivers and barriers

13 Appendix

13.1 Bibliography
13.2 Abbreviations
13.3 Methodology
13.3.1 Forecasting methodology
13.4 Primary research - KOLs interviewed for this report
13.4.1 KOLs
13.5 Primary research - prescriber survey
13.6 About the authors
13.6.1 Analysts
13.6.2 Therapy Area Director
13.6.3 Epidemiologist
13.6.4 Epidemiology reviewers
13.6.5 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology"

List of Tables

Table 1: Colorectal cancer: key metrics in the 8MM
Table 2: 8MM, TNM staging and classification for CRC
Table 3: 8MM, Diagnosed incident cases of CRC by molecular markers, both sexes, ages =18 years, N, 2021
Table 4: CRC screening practices across the 8MM
Table 5: Treatment guidelines for CRC across the 8MM
Table 6: Current landscape of approved CRC agents in the 8MM
Table 7: Comparison of published clinical data for late-stage pipeline agents in CRC
Table 8: Top 10 completed deals by value, 2021-2023
Table 9: CRC market - global drivers and barriers, 2021-2031
Table 10: Key events impacting sales for CRC in the US, 2021-2031
Table 11: CRC market - drivers and barriers in the US, 2021-2031
Table 12: Key events impacting sales for CRC in the 5EU, 2021-2031
Table 13: CRC market - drivers and barriers in the 5EU, 2021-2031
Table 14: Key events impacting sales for CRC in Japan, 2021-2031
Table 15: CRC market - drivers and barriers in Japan, 2021-2031
Table 16: Key events impacting sales for CRC in China, 2021-2031
Table 17: CRC market - drivers and barriers in China, 2021-2031
Table 18: High-prescribing physicians (non-KOLs) surveyed, by country

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global sales forecast by country for CRC in 2021 and 2031
Figure 2: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in CRC during the forecast period
Figure 3: Competitive assessment of the marketed and pipeline drugs benchmarked against Braftovi, targeted therapy agents
Figure 4: Competitive assessment of the marketed and pipeline drugs benchmarked against Keytruda, immunotherapy agents
Figure 5: Risk factors associated with CRC
Figure 6: Tumor sites of the colon and rectum
Figure 7: 8MM, Diagnosed incidence of CRC, men, cases per 100,000 population, ages =18 years, 2011-31
Figure 8: 8MM, Diagnosed incidence of CRC, women, cases per 100,000 population, ages =18 years, 2011-31
Figure 9: 8MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of CRC
Figure 10: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of CRC by stage at diagnosis
Figure 11: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of CRC by recurrence into stage IV disease
Figure 12: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of CRC by molecular markers (KRAS mutation, NRAS mutation, BRAF mutation, BRAF V600E mutation, and PIK3CA/PTEN mutation)
Figure 13: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of CRC by molecular markers (MSI-H/dMMR molecular subtype, HER2 amplification, MET amplification, and NTRK gene fusion)
Figure 14: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of CRC by molecular markers (DPYD, high TMB, elevated CEA, and UGT1A1 mutation)
Figure 15: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of CRC by molecular markers (POLE mutation, TP53 mutation, APC mutation, and PD-L1 expression on tumors)
Figure 16: 8MM, Sources used to forecast the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of CRC
Figure 17: 8MM, Diagnosed incident cases of CRC, N, both sexes, ages =18 years, 2021
Figure 18: 8MM, Diagnosed incident cases of CRC by age, N, both sexes, 2021
Figure 19: 8MM, Diagnosed incident cases of CRC by sex, N, all ages, 2021
Figure 20: 8MM, Diagnosed incident cases of CRC by AJCC stage at diagnosis, N, all ages, 2021
Figure 21: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of CRC by recurrence of stages I-III into stage IV disease, N, both sexes, ages =18 years, 2021
Figure 22: 8MM, Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of CRC, N, both sexes, ages =18 years, 2021
Figure 23: Treatment algorithm for localized CRC
Figure 24: Treatment algorithm for advanced/metastatic CRC
Figure 25: Unmet needs and opportunities in CRC
Figure 26: Overview of the ex-China development pipeline in CRC (Phase II-Phase III)
Figure 27: Key late-stage trials for targeted therapy CRC candidates that the Publisher expects to be approved in the 8MM during the forecast period
Figure 28: Key late-stage trials for immunotherapy CRC candidates that the Publisher expects to be approved in the 8MM during the forecast period
Figure 29: Competitive assessment of the marketed and pipeline drugs benchmarked against Braftovi, targeted therapy agents
Figure 30: Competitive assessment of the marketed and pipeline drugs benchmarked against Keytruda, immunotherapy agents
Figure 31: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in CRC during the forecast period
Figure 32: Global (8MM) sales forecast by country for CRC in 2021 and 2031
Figure 33: Sales forecast by class for CRC in the US in 2021 and 2031
Figure 34: Sales forecast by class for CRC in the 5EU in 2021 and 2031
Figure 35: Sales forecast by class for CRC in Japan in 2021 and 2031
Figure 36: Sales forecast by class for CRC in China in 2021 and 2033

Companies Mentioned (Partial List)

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:

Amgen
Bayer
Bristol Myers Squibb
Chia Tai Tianqing Pharmaceutical Group
Eli Lilly
Exelixis
Genentech
GenFleet Therapeutics
Gritstone bio
GSK
Merck
Novartis
Pfizer
Qilu Pharmaceutical
Roche
Sanofi
Shanghai Henlius Biotech
SUNHO Biologics
Takeda Pharmaceuticals
Tracon Pharmaceuticals

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Key Highlights

Several markets across the 8MM will experience growth driven by common drivers -

Common barriers to market growth experienced across the 8MM primarily include a series of patent expiries:

Scope

Reasons to Buy

Table of Contents

Companies Mentioned (Partial List)

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