Australian Advertising Market Forecast & Outlook 2023

The post-pandemic advertising recovery was impressive. The 7.2% fall in total advertising of FY20 was more than reversed with 14.8% growth in FY21. Growth in FY22 was 19.4%, although digital dominated this growth with a $2.6b increase. But 1HFY23 ad revenue growth dropped to 4% as higher interest rates weighed on confidence and spending.

Growth forecasts are weak. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) forecasts a GDP growth slowdown over FY23/24. Advertising expenditure is sensitive to GDP, impacting our ad growth forecast to FY27. After a flat FY23 we now expect contraction in advertising spending in FY24 and a recovery in FY26. We forecast 1.4% CAGR growth for total ad spending over FY22/27.

This annual forecast report provides historic and forecast expenditures over the period 2019 to 2027 (June year end) for the main verticals in Australia’s advertising industry. An executive summary provides an overview of advertising expenditure growth or contraction in the consolidated Australian advertising industry. This includes remarks on current and forecast Australia GDP growth which are the main driver of overall advertising expenditure.

Individual forecasts of advertising expenditure and related discussion are provided in each of the following verticals:

• Digital advertising
• Free-to-air television
• Print
• Free-to-air radio
• Outdoor (Out of Home)
• Cinema

The report is 13 pages long, presented in a landscape format with dot-point discussions of forecast drivers and results. Expenditure forecasts and CAGR for growth over FY22/27 are presented in tabular format for each industry vertical, and supplemented by supporting information in tabular and graphic formats. 

The report concludes with a methodology chart and a table of definitions and sources. All revenues are provided in Australian dollars.