This annual forecast report provides historic and forecast mobile and fixed revenues for the consumer segment over the period 2022 to 2028 (June year end).
Key Market Insights:
- Fixed voice Consumer fixed voice (incl. VoIP) revenue from standalone fixed voice services will contract at a CAGR of 21.4% over FY23/28 to reach $51m as subscribers migrate to mobile-only or adopt voice/broadband bundles.
- Consumer mobile revenues fell in FY20-21 due to pandemic movement restrictions but recovered in FY22 and will grow over the forecast period at a CAGR of 2.3% over FY23/28.
- Growth was hampered by reduced immigration in FY22 but has recovered in FY23 driven by population growth, the return of roaming, and higher ARPU as new inflation-linked price increases flow through. Consumer mobile revenue share of the retail consumer telco market will decline slightly to 65% in FY28.
- Consumer fixed broadband revenues are expected to grow at 4.6% CAGR over FY23/28, driven by household growth, inflation-linked ARPU growth and the migration of users to higher speed plans. Fixed broadband will lift its revenue share of the retail consumer telco market from 33% in FY23 to 35% in FY28.
- The pandemic boosted fixed broadband ARPUs in 2020 as consumers migrated to higher plans, but ARPU growth after FY23 will be driven more by inflation-linked price increases as the effect of the NBN’s new Special Access Undertaking (SAU) and standard wholesale agreements flow through.
An executive summary provides an overview of consumer telecommunications revenue for the Australian industry, for standalone fixed voice, mobile, and fixed broadband (including bundled voice) services.
Individual forecasts of mobile revenue and subscriber shares are provided for each of the following operators:
- Telstra
- Optus
- TPG Telecom
- MVNO
Individual forecasts of fixed broadband revenue and subscriber shares are provided for each of the following operators:
- Telstra
- Optus
- TPG Telecom
- Vocus
- Aussie Broadband
- Superloop
- Others
The report is 13 pages long, presented in a landscape format with dot-point discussions of forecast drivers and results. Forecasted revenues, along with CAGR for growth over FY23/28 are presented in tabular format, and supplemented by supporting information in tabular and graphic formats.
The report concludes with a methodology chart and a table of definitions and sources. All revenues are provided in Australian dollars.
Table of Contents
- Executive summary
- Consumer telco market forecast by service
- Consumer fixed voice forecast - subscriptions and revenues
- Consumer mobile forecast - subscriptions and revenues
- Consumer mobile forecast - market share
- Consumer fixed broadband forecast - subscriptions and revenue
- Consumer fixed broadband - market share
- Consumer fixed Broadband - technology share
- NBN connection growth
- Methodology - approach
- Methodology - definitions
- Glossary
Companies Mentioned
- Telstra
- Optus
- TPG Telecom
- NBN Co
- Aussie Broadband
- Uniti
- Superloop
- Amaysim
