New Zealand Telco Forecast & Outlook 2023

This annual forecast report provides historic and forecast mobile and fixed revenues for the New Zealand telecommunications industry over the period 2022 to 2028 (June year end). An executive summary provides an overview of telecommunications revenue for the New Zealand industry, for standalone fixed voice, mobile, and fixed broadband (including bundled voice) services. 

Key Market Insights

• Fixed Voice
  • Fixed voice (incl. VoIP) service revenue will continue to contract at a CAGR of 11.6% over FY23/28 to reach NZ$164m, as subscribers shun the landline and migrate away from standalone fixed voice services to mobile-only and broadband + VoIP bundles.
• Mobile:
  • Mobile service revenue fell in the FY21-FY22 period due to COVID movement restrictions but has resumed growth from FY22 onwards. Overall, we expect mobile service revenue to grow at a CAGR of 2.1% over FY23/28 to reach NZ$2.46b. 
  • The main drivers are population growth, a rising proportion of post-paid plans, and migration to higher data allowances. 
  • Mobile hardware revenue will decline at 2.3% CAGR over FY23/28 to reach NZ$828m as higher handset prices are offset by more BYOD and longer replacement cycles.
• Fixed Broadband
  
  • Fixed Broadband revenues are expected to grow across our forecast horizon at 3.8% CAGR over FY23/28, driven by CPI-linked wholesale price increases, some household growth, and migration to higher speed plans, to reach NZ$1.86b in FY28.
  • FWA penetration has been rising and we expect the trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. 
  • Challenger brands utilising UFB infrastructure are growing and putting competitive pressure on Spark and One NZ.

Individual forecasts of total mobile revenue shares are provided for each of the following operators:

• Spark
• One NZ
• 2degrees
• MVNO

Individual forecasts of total fixed broadband revenue shares are provided for each of the following operators:

• Spark
• One NZ
• Others

The report is 13 pages long, presented in a landscape format with dot-point discussions of forecast drivers and results. Forecasted revenues, along with CAGR for growth over FY23/28 are presented in tabular format, and supplemented by supporting information in tabular and graphic formats.  The report concludes with a methodology chart and a table of definitions and sources. All revenues are provided in New Zealand dollars.