Coffee Market Outlook, 2029

The coffee industry, a global juggernaut, has permeated cultures, economies, and daily routines across the world. From the lush coffee plantations of South America to the bustling cafés of Europe and the rising coffee culture in Asia, the beverage has evolved into much more than just a morning pick-me-up. The journey of coffee dates back centuries, with its origin believed to be in the highlands of Ethiopia. From there, the Arab world embraced the drink, cultivating coffee plants and introducing coffeehouses. In the 17th century, coffee made its way to Europe, captivating the taste buds of the continent. Fast forward to the present, and coffee has become an indispensable part of daily life for millions worldwide.

The economic significance of the coffee industry is colossal. It is a major player in the global agricultural trade, with millions of farmers relying on coffee cultivation for their livelihoods. Countries in the coffee belt, which includes regions near the equator such as Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, and Ethiopia, are the primary contributors to global coffee production. Additionally, the coffee supply chain involves various stages, from cultivation and harvesting to processing, exporting, roasting, and finally, retail. This intricate network provides employment for millions, from rural farmers to urban baristas. The industry is a key driver of economic development in many regions, contributing significantly to export revenues and GDP. Coffee has transcended its role as a mere beverage; it has become a cultural phenomenon. Coffeehouses, once exclusive to the Arab world, are now ubiquitous across the globe. From the espresso-driven lifestyle of Italy to the laid-back coffee culture of Scandinavia, each region has infused its unique identity into the way it enjoys coffee. Coffee has also influenced the arts, literature, and social interactions. It serves as a catalyst for conversations, a medium for creative expression, and a symbol of relaxation. The aroma of freshly brewed coffee has a universal appeal that transcends borders, connecting people from diverse backgrounds.

According to the report “Global Coffee Market Outlook, 2029”, the market is anticipated to cross USD 185 Billion by 2029, increasing from USD 128.93 Billion in 2023. The market is expected to grow with 6.47% CAGR by 2024-29. The coffee market is rising due to the growing culture of consuming coffee as a refreshing drink among the younger population, especially in India, Italy, the United States, China, Japan, and the Philippines. In addition, the increasing disposable income coupled with urbanization is the primary factor contributing to the growth of the coffee market.

On the other hand, the various health benefits of consuming coffee, such as reducing the risk of diabetes, burning fat, and consuming high energy from caffeine spikes, are also driving the market growth. Consumers are shifting towards more organic or plant-based coffee to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Hence, key players are engaged in product innovations to maintain a stronger foothold in the market. For instance, in 2021, Nestle Japan launched a range of Nescafé lattes, including coffee capsules crafted with plant-based ingredients, to meet consumer’s rapidly growing interest in plant-based food. In addition, another significant factor driving the market growth are busy lifestyles, leading to coffee chains becoming more popular among customers who enjoy their coffee on the go. Consumers demand premium products that emphasize quality. Therefore, they are attracted to top-notch coffee houses that offer the best coffee quality, which is a significant factor for repeated visits. Technology innovations, safety measures, and machine-based food processing units are projected to play an essential role in the demand for coffee over the coming years. Coffee consumers are increasingly looking for ethical products from a social and ecological point of view. Organic certification in coffee is gaining popularity in world consumer markets, especially in Asia and Europe. The common belief among consumers about organically produced products being less exposed to synthetic chemicals and pesticides is boosting the trend for organic certified coffee. Additionally, increasing wealthy and millennial population, rising e-commerce retail sales, fortification of coffee with antioxidants, increasing health concerns about caffeine and green coffee consumption in emerging countries are further propelling market growth.

Market Drivers

• Changing Consumer Preferences: The global coffee market is significantly influenced by shifting consumer preferences and demands. As consumers become more discerning about the origin, quality, and ethical considerations of their coffee, there is an increasing demand for specialty and single-origin coffees. This shift towards premium and unique coffee experiences has driven innovation in the industry, with coffee producers and retailers focusing on delivering diverse and high-quality products to meet evolving consumer expectations.
• Rising Coffee Consumption in Emerging Markets: Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, have witnessed a surge in coffee consumption. Traditionally tea-drinking countries like China and India are experiencing a growing coffee culture, driven by urbanization, changing lifestyles, and a rising middle class. As coffee becomes a fashionable and convenient beverage choice, international coffee chains and local coffee shops are expanding their presence in these markets. The increasing demand from emerging economies contributes significantly to the overall growth of the global coffee market.

Market Challenges

• Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability: Climate change poses a significant threat to coffee production as it affects the suitable growing conditions for coffee plants. Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall patterns, and increased prevalence of pests and diseases are impacting coffee-producing regions. This poses a dual challenge - ensuring the resilience of coffee crops in the face of climate change and adopting sustainable agricultural practices to mitigate the environmental impact of coffee cultivation.
• Supply Chain Disruptions and Price Volatility: The coffee industry is highly susceptible to supply chain disruptions, ranging from adverse weather conditions to geopolitical factors affecting transportation and trade. Such disruptions can lead to fluctuations in coffee prices, impacting both producers and consumers. Smallholder farmers, who make up a significant portion of the industry, are particularly vulnerable to price volatility. Ensuring fair compensation for farmers while maintaining stable prices for consumers remains a persistent challenge.

Market Trends

• Digital Transformation in Coffee Retail: The coffee industry is undergoing a digital transformation, with technology playing a crucial role in enhancing the customer experience. Mobile apps for ordering and payment, online subscription services, and smart coffee machines are becoming increasingly popular. This trend not only offers convenience to consumers but also allows coffee businesses to collect data, personalize offerings, and streamline operations.
• Sustainability and Ethical Sourcing: Sustainability has become a major trend in the coffee industry, driven by consumer awareness and corporate responsibility. There is a growing emphasis on sustainable and ethical sourcing practices, including certifications such as Fair Trade and Rainforest Alliance. Consumers are increasingly seeking transparency in the supply chain, demanding assurance that their coffee is produced in an environmentally friendly and socially responsible manner. This trend is prompting companies to adopt eco-friendly practices and engage in fair trade initiatives.

COVID-19 Impacts

Lockdowns, travel restrictions, and quarantine measures disrupted the global supply chain, affecting the movement of coffee beans from production areas to processing facilities and then to export markets. Coffee-producing countries faced challenges in terms of labor shortages, transportation delays, and logistical bottlenecks, leading to interruptions in the supply chain. The pandemic-induced uncertainties contributed to increased price volatility in the coffee market. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates, supply chain disruptions, and changes in demand patterns led to unpredictable shifts in coffee prices. Smallholder farmers, already vulnerable to market fluctuations, faced additional economic challenges.

With lockdowns and social distancing measures in place, the coffee consumption landscape underwent significant changes. The closure of cafes, restaurants, and offices led to a decline in out-of-home coffee consumption. On the other hand, there was a notable increase in at-home coffee consumption as individuals turned to home brewing and online coffee purchases. Coffee shops and cafes, especially those relying heavily on foot traffic, faced closures and reduced business during lockdowns. Even as restrictions eased, many establishments had to adapt to new safety protocols and changing consumer behaviors. The recovery of these businesses has been influenced by regional variations in pandemic control measures. The disruptions highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains, prompting the coffee industry to focus on building resilience. Initiatives such as direct trade, shorter supply chains, and investments in technology to monitor and manage supply chain risks gained traction. These efforts aim to enhance the industry's ability to withstand future shocks. Economic pressures on farmers, coupled with disruptions in supply chains, made it challenging for some producers to maintain sustainable practices. However, the crisis also brought increased awareness of the need for resilient and sustainable supply chains.

The instant coffee segment is the highest contributor to the global coffee market and is expected to grow at sustainable CAGR during the forecast period owing to existence of multiple international firms.

Instant coffee differs from fresh coffee in that it dissolves completely when dry coffee is added to water. It can be brewed in a mug without any special equipment. Instant coffee is made from dehydrated, freshly brewed coffee. After brewing coffee, it is dried to leave a powder and can be stored and rehydrated at any time. Instant coffee is very similar to fresh coffee in that it has the same origin. Instant coffee is mainly consumed, easy to prepare, and delicious. For this reason, large instant coffee brands are in great demand. It is also used in vending machines, small cafes, and around homes. These factors are driving the growth of the segment in the market.

The product's convenience of use primarily drives the demand for instant coffee. Due to the existence of multiple international firms, the instant coffee market is highly fragmented. Large corporations associate with several other businesses to remain competitive in the market and get into joint ventures, collaborations, and product launches. To compete with Nescafe and Bru instant coffees, Tata Global Beverages, an Indian multinational non-alcoholic beverage firm, launched its instant coffee brand, Tata Coffee Grand. This product is a Robusta and Arabica coffee combination. Furthermore, many businesses are adopting flavors that cater to regional palate preferences. Additionally, advancements in the market are being driven by the fortification of coffee, which offers several health benefits.

Off-trade is expected to dominate the global market over the forecast period and this is attributed to the large retail space and availability of diversified product ranges at supermarkets/hypermarkets.

Based on distribution channel, the market is segmented into On-trade and Off-trade. Off-trade is further segmented into Supermarkets/hypermarkets, Convenience Stores, Specialist Retailers, and Other Off-trade Channels. Convenience Stores segment is also expected to witness significant growth in the near future. This segment offer convenient and affordable cups of coffee for on-the- go customers. Moreover, convenience stores offers premium and branded coffee products, and thus, they attract high-income consumers. Supermarkets' and hypermarkets' extensive product visibility expands the consumer base and drives sales.

The actors heavily impact the market, such as business growth and the increase of supermarkets and hypermarkets, which boost sales of various retail formats. The rising demand for bulk purchases of products, such as coffee, has contributed to the industry's overall growth due to the segment's increasing market share. For clients constantly on the go, convenience stores provide economic and practical cups of coffee. Additionally, many convenience stores have eating areas, attracting even more consumers. Specialty coffee goods, which are frequently absent from chain stores, are known to be offered by specialized retailers and webshops. For instance, the Indian company Sleepy Owl is converting its online retailing into in-store marketing as part of its retail channel expansion. The business intends to promote its coffee goods via 100 shops.

Arabica coffee beans generally have lower caffeine content compared to Robusta beans. This makes Arabica a preferred choice for consumers who are sensitive to caffeine or those who seek a milder and less intense coffee experience.

Arabica coffee is renowned for its superior and complex flavor profile, characterized by a wide range of nuanced and aromatic notes. It often exhibits a smoother, less bitter taste compared to its counterpart, Robusta (Coffea canephora). Arabica beans are prized for their pleasant acidity, floral and fruity undertones, and overall balanced flavor, making them highly desirable among coffee connoisseurs. Arabica plants thrive in higher elevations with cooler temperatures and consistent rainfall, typically between 2,000 and 6,000 feet above sea level. This elevation requirement contributes to the unique characteristics of Arabica beans.

While Arabica is more challenging to cultivate due to its susceptibility to diseases and pests, the specific growing conditions it demands contribute to its distinctive flavor profile. The growing global interest in specialty coffee, with an emphasis on unique flavors, quality, and origin transparency, has further propelled Arabica to the forefront. Specialty coffee consumers are willing to pay a premium for Arabica beans sourced from specific regions with distinct terroir, fostering a market where Arabica is not just a commodity but a sought-after experience. Arabica accounts for a significant portion of the world's coffee production. While Robusta is often chosen for its hardiness and resistance to pests, Arabica's popularity means that it dominates the market in terms of volume and consumption. Major coffee-producing countries, including Ethiopia, Colombia, Brazil, and others, cultivate large quantities of Arabica beans to meet global demand. Arabica's prominence aligns with current consumer trends favoring high-quality, ethically sourced, and sustainably produced products. As consumers become more conscious of the environmental and social impact of their purchases, Arabica's association with specialty and sustainable practices enhances its market appeal. Arabica beans are versatile and well-suited for various brewing methods, including espresso, pour-over, French press, and drip brewing.

Based on nature, conventional coffee production typically involves the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. These practices are often more cost-effective than organic methods, allowing for larger-scale production and lower prices.

Conventional coffee farming often utilizes high-yield varieties and agrochemicals to boost production. This result in larger harvests per acre compared to some organic farming methods. The increased yield helps meet the high demand for coffee globally. Conventional coffee production is more widespread on a global scale. Major coffee-producing countries, such as Brazil and Vietnam, have extensive conventional coffee plantations. The sheer volume of conventional coffee produced contributes significantly to its market dominance. Conventional coffee plants are often engineered or treated with synthetic pesticides to resist common pests and diseases.

This can lead to a more stable and predictable harvest compared to organic methods, where pest control relies on natural and biological means. Conventional coffee has been the norm for many decades, and consumers have become accustomed to its taste and affordability. While there is a growing interest in organic and specialty coffees, the sheer size of the market and consumer habits make conventional coffee the leading choice for many. The coffee industry has developed extensive practices and infrastructure around conventional farming. From processing facilities to supply chains, the industry has been optimized for the production and distribution of conventionally grown coffee. Shifting to widespread organic production would require significant adjustments and investments. The regulatory environment in some coffee-producing regions may favor or prioritize conventional farming methods. This can include government subsidies, certification processes, and trade agreements that support or incentivize conventional coffee production.

Europe has a rich and long-standing coffee culture. Countries like Italy, France, and Spain have deep-rooted traditions of coffee consumption, with iconic beverages such as espresso, cappuccino, and café au lait.

European cities are renowned for their vibrant café cultures. Cafés serve as social hubs, places for meetings, and settings for leisure. The prevalence of cafés, both large chains and independent establishments, contributes to high coffee consumption levels. The experience of enjoying coffee in a café setting is deeply ingrained in European lifestyle. There is a growing trend in Europe towards premium and specialty coffee. Consumers are increasingly interested in the quality, origin, and unique flavors of their coffee. This has led to the rise of specialty coffee shops and an emphasis on higher-quality beans, contributing to a more diverse and sophisticated coffee market. Europe is home to a diverse range of coffee preferences.

Different countries have their own unique ways of preparing and enjoying coffee, reflecting a broad spectrum of tastes. For example, the strong espresso tradition in Italy contrasts with the preference for filter coffee in countries like Sweden and the Netherlands. European countries have been at the forefront of market development and innovation in the coffee industry. This includes the introduction of new brewing methods, the expansion of coffee varieties, and the development of ready-to-drink coffee products. European consumers are often early adopters of coffee trends and innovations. The population of Europe is substantial, providing a large consumer base for the coffee market. The diverse preferences across different regions contribute to a robust and dynamic coffee market that caters to various tastes and preferences. European consumers have shown a heightened awareness of sustainability and ethical sourcing in recent years. This has led to an increased demand for sustainably sourced and certified coffee. Many European consumers are willing to pay a premium for coffee that aligns with environmental and social responsibility.

The coffee market is highly competitive and is dominated by players like Nestlé S.A., Kraft Heinz Company, JAB Holding Company, Luigi Lavazza S.p.A., and Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group. The leading players in the coffee market recorded a significant scope in their market shares through innovations in products and expansions in other regions via joint ventures. For instance, in September 2021, Louis Dreyfus Company Asia Pte Ltd signed a joint venture agreement with Zephyr Japan, a Japanese specialty coffee retailer that provides premium coffees. With this joint venture, the company aims for specialty business expansion, positioning it to increase excellent coffee flows into Japan and other East Asian markets.

• September 2022: CoffeeB, a Swiss coffee brand, unveiled a groundbreaking innovation: compressed coffee balls heralded as "the next generation of single-serve coffee." These balls are wrapped in innovative seaweed-based material instead of traditional aluminum or plastic capsules, ensuring shape retention and sustainability.
• January 2022: Starbucks marked a milestone by launching its first drive-thru in Italy in Erbusco, Lombardy. This initiative stemmed from a new collaboration between Percassi, Starbucks' exclusive licensee partner in Italy, and the Q8 service station company, showcasing Starbucks' expansion strategy.
• March 2022: Melbourne's Beat Coffee introduced a specialty instant coffee packaged in single sachets, capturing the essence of quality, flavor, and convenience. This process preserves the coffee's vibrancy through freeze-drying, highlighting delightful caramel and honey notes in an instant format.

Considered in this report

• Historic year: 2018
• Base year: 2023
• Estimated year: 2024
• Forecast year: 2029

Aspects covered in this report

• Coffee market Research Report with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

By Product Type

• Instant Coffee
• Ground Coffee
• Whole Bean
• Coffee Pods and Capsules

By Nature

• Conventional
• Organic

By Source

• Arabica
• Robusta

By Distribution Channel

• Off-trade (Supermarkets/hypermarkets, Convenience Stores, Specialist Retailers, Other Off-trade Channels)
• On-trade

The approach of the report:

This report consists of a combined approach of primary and secondary research. Initially, secondary research was used to get an understanding of the market and list the companies that are present in it. The secondary research consists of third-party sources such as press releases, annual reports of companies, and government-generated reports and databases.

After gathering the data from secondary sources, primary research was conducted by conducting telephone interviews with the leading players about how the market is functioning and then conducting trade calls with dealers and distributors of the market. Post this; we have started making primary calls to consumers by equally segmenting them in regional aspects, tier aspects, age group, and gender. Once we have primary data with us, we can start verifying the details obtained from secondary sources.

Intended audience

This report can be useful to industry consultants, manufacturers, suppliers, associations, and organizations related to the Coffee industry, government bodies, and other stakeholders to align their market-centric strategies. In addition to marketing and presentations, it will also increase competitive knowledge about the industry.


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