Retail Electricity Market - Forecasts from 2024 to 2029

The retail electricity market is projected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.78% to reach a market valuation of US$4.376 trillion by 2029, from US$3.155 trillion in 2022.

Retail electricity is the final stage of the electricity supply chain, where electricity is sold directly to end-use consumers. It involves the distribution and sale of electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.

Retail electricity differs from wholesale electricity, which involves transactions between generators, distributors, and large industrial consumers. It plays a crucial role in ensuring a reliable and efficient supply of electricity to meet diverse consumer needs. Electricity flows through various intermediaries, including power generators and retail electric companies. Wholesale markets are where generators sell their electricity, either as spot or future-generated, depending on demand and fuel costs. Retail electric companies, including regulated utilities, competitive providers, and marketers, secure the correct amount of power supply for residential and business customers. Retail energy costs can influence customer prices, while wholesale energy costs affect retail energy prices. Retail electric companies ensure the right amount of power is delivered to customers, ensuring a reliable and safe electricity supply.

As per the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2023, the United States generated 4,178 billion kWh of electricity at utility-scale facilities, with 60% coming from fossil fuels, 19% from nuclear energy, and 21% from renewable energy sources, totaling 4.18 trillion kWh. It reported an additional 73.62 billion kWh of electricity generated from small-scale solar photovoltaic systems.

Additionally, in March 2022, PowerFlex and Hydro One Limited have agreed to co-develop Distributed Energy Resources (DER) solutions for the Ontario market. The partnership will initially focus on two Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) projects, totaling 20 MWh in Ontario. PowerFlex, a division of EDF Renewables North America, will provide a turnkey BESS using its proprietary Energy Management System (EMS), which offers real-time insights, historical reporting, asset dashboards, and consolidated billing. The partnership aims to accelerate the decarbonization of energy sources, provide greater choice to customers, and increase sustainability and resiliency in the area. Hydro One, on the other hand, is committed to embracing innovative solutions to optimize the electricity grid through increasing the use of Distributed Energy Resources. The partnership will help Ontario support its goal of becoming a low-carbon economy.

Comprehensively, the retail electricity market is a segment of the broader electricity market that focuses on end-consumer needs, involving the buying and selling of electricity services and products directly to consumers. Key elements include electricity suppliers, consumers, tariffs and pricing, regulation, billing and metering, and customer service. Consumers range from households to businesses and industries, and pricing structures can include fixed-rate plans, variable rates, and time-of-use pricing. Smart meters are becoming more common, enabling real-time monitoring of consumption.

 Government Initiatives to increase people’s access to electricity is anticipated to drive the market

Government initiatives aimed at increasing electricity access are crucial in driving the electricity market. These strategies include rural e-grid projects, subsidies and financial incentives, public-private partnerships, policy and regulatory frameworks, renewable energy targets, community-based programs, and capacity building and training. Rural e-grid projects involve expanding the electricity grid or deploying off-grid solutions. Governments provide subsidies on electricity tariffs or financial incentives for renewable energy technologies to make electricity more affordable.  Electricity is a crucial component of modern life used for various purposes such as lighting, heating, cooling, and operating appliances, computers, electronics, machinery, and public transportation systems.

According to U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2022, the total U.S. electricity end-use consumption was 3.2% higher than in 2021. Major user was commercial 1.3 trillion KwH and residential sector 1.5 trillion KwH.

Further, Governments worldwide have allocated USD 1.34 trillion to clean energy investment since 2020, with around 130 billion new spending announced in the last six months. This slowdown may be temporary as additional policy packages are being considered in Australia, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and Japan. Government spending is playing a central role in the rapid growth of clean energy investment and expanding clean technology supply chains. Direct incentives for manufacturers aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing of clean energy technologies now total around USD 90 billion. Governments have also increased spending on short-term consumer affordability measures since the start of the global energy crisis.

Additionally, UNCTAD is urging sub-Saharan African countries to utilize their renewable energy reserves and collaborate to create a cleaner, greener future. Despite increased energy access, over 50% of the region's population still lacks electricity, impacting health, education, poverty reduction, and sustainable development. The report warns that without further efforts, the population without clean fuels could rise to over 1.1 billion by 2030. Access to reliable energy is crucial for economic development, industrialization, productivity, and human development.

Furthermore, Public-private partnerships accelerate infrastructure development by involving private companies in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution projects. Clear policy frameworks encourage investment, fair competition, and consumer rights. Renewable energy targets promote environmental sustainability and drive innovation. Community-based programs empower local communities to manage their own electricity systems, enhancing social and economic development. Capacity building and training programs ensure the success of electrification initiatives.

The market is projected to grow in the North American region.

Growing investments in new commercial establishments coupled with rapid industrialization have increased the overall electricity consumption in the United States. In the coming years, this trend along with new schemes and policies in line to bolster electricity generation is anticipated to further expand the scale of retail electricity in the country. According to the U.S Energy Information Administration’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook” report, in Q1 of 2024, US retail sales of electricity to major end-users stood at 970 billion kilowatt-hours which signified a 5.6% increase over Q1 of 2023. The same source further stated that the residential sector experienced a major growth of 8.7% in consumption followed by the commercial sector with 4% and industrial with 3%.  The overall consumption is expected to grow by 3% by the end of 2024.

Additionally, the population in the United States is growing steadily which is expected to further increase the electricity demand. According to the Census Bureau “Vintage 2023 population estimates, released in December 2023, the country’s population trend is returning to pre-pandemic level, with the Southern region accounting for 87% of the nation’s population growth by adding 1.4 million residents. Major eleven states inclusive of New Jersey, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, Minnesota, Michigan, and Maryland among others experienced positive growth in population .

Moreover, the booming trend of technological adoption coupled with rapid urbanization further necessitates a steady and reliable power supply which is anticipated to cause an upward market trajectory in coming years.

Bolstering growth in electrical vehicle adoption coupled with investments in new grid infrastructure establishments has provided new growth opportunities. For instance, in October 2023, the Biden Administration announced an investment of US$3.46 billion for 58 projects that would strengthen electric grid reliability & resilience across 44 American states . Moreover, according to the White House's January 2024 press release, more than US$25 billion has been invested in the US EV network to date inclusive of US$10 billion from the private sector .

Segmentation:

By Phase

• Single Phase
• Dual Phase
• Three Phase

By Contract Type:

• Standards Retail
• Market Retail

By End-User

• Residential
• Commercial
• Industrial

By Geography

• North America
• USA
• Canada              
• Mexico
• South America
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Others
• Europe
• UK
• Germany
• France
• Italy
• Others
• Middle East and Africa
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE
• Others
• Asia Pacific
• China
• Japan
• India
• South Korea
• Taiwan
• Thailand
• Indonesia
• Others