Thematic Intelligence: Deep Dive into the 2024 US Elections

In the most anticipated political event of the year, the US presidential elections will see two generally unpopular candidates-Joe Biden and Donald Trump-battle for America’s vote. Election coverage has largely focused on each candidate’s unfavorable traits and left little room to discuss the implications should they win. Given the inevitability of change, businesses must understand the domestic and foreign implications of the November elections and start strategic planning now.

Key Highlights

• Do not forget about Congress! Alongside the Presidential elections, the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate (which together comprise Congress) will also be up for election. The degree to which the victorious presidential candidate can fulfill their campaign promises will depend on the makeup of Congress. We expect to see a split Congress, but a Republican-majority Congress is not out of the question.
• The US economy is more resilient than people believe and will likely be mostly unaffected by the outcome of the presidential election (barring a contested election that is not quickly resolved). The economy will be most impacted by a united government (meaning one party wins the majority in the House, Senate, and White House). A united government increases risks to business investment due to increased regulatory changes from fast-paced legislative action.
• Trump 2.0 will focus on tax cuts and tough protectionist policies affecting the economy, climate, social security, border security, and foreign affairs. A divided government will see Trump focus on what he can control (e.g., agency regulations, tariffs, and global affairs) over what he cannot (e.g., budgetary spending), while a Republican-majority Congress will support Trump’s more extreme protectionist and anti-climate policies.
• Biden 2.0 will focus on making his first-term agenda a success. In his second term, Biden will implement and oversee the multi-year investment projects he passed in his first term. These include the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), CHIPS and Science Act, and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The implementation will likely be heavily roadblocked by a Republican-majority Senate.

Scope

• This Deep Dive report looks into the domestic and global implications of a second term in the White House for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. It also explores how the Senate and House of Representatives election results will impact the President's ability to fulfill their campaign promises.

Reasons to Buy

• Learn about the impact of the geopolitics theme on the 2024 US elections.
• Understand how the 2024 US election results will shape domestic and foreign policy.
• Grasp the different result scenarios in the 2024 US elections and how they will impact US policy for the foreseeable future.
• Understand Joe Biden's second-term ambitions.
• Understand Donald Trump's second-term ambitions.