Automotive Transmission Market Outlook, 2029

In the intricate orchestra of mechanical components that power the vehicle, few play a more crucial role than the transmission system. Often referred to as the "gearbox" or simply "transmission," this complex assembly is responsible for transferring power from the engine to the wheels, enabling the car to accelerate, decelerate, and navigate through a variety of driving conditions with ease. At its core, the transmission system serves two primary functions including to regulate the power generated by the engine and to transmit that power to the wheels. It achieves this by utilizing a series of gears, which can be manually or automatically engaged to alter the ratio between engine speed and wheel speed.

By doing so, the transmission ensures that the engine operates within its optimal range, maximizing fuel efficiency and performance. The automotive transmission system industry stands as a cornerstone of the automotive sector, playing a pivotal role in the performance, efficiency, and overall driving experience of vehicles worldwide. From manual transmissions to cutting-edge continuously variable transmissions (CVTs), this industry constantly evolves to meet the demands of consumers and regulatory requirements. The landscape of the automotive transmission system industry is characterized by a diverse array of manufacturers, each contributing unique expertise and innovations.

Major players include established automotive giants such as ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd., BorgWarner Inc., and Magna International Inc. These companies are renowned for their extensive product portfolios, global reach, and commitment to research and development. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted the automobile industry, leading to sluggish growth of the automotive transmission market as a result of declined automotive sales or new requirements.

On the other hand, technological advancements and the evolution of transmission systems as per performance requirements across several vehicle types, including Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs) and passenger cars, are expected to drive the market growth over the forecast period. Automotive OEMs are adopting advanced systems, such as Automated Manual Transmission (AMT), with minimized fuel consumption and CO2 emissions without compromising on performance.

According to the research report, the market is anticipated to cross USD 220 Billion by 2029, increasing from USD 161.92 Billion in 2023. The market is expected to grow with 5.72% CAGR by 2024-29. Advancements in automotive transmission technology have led to significant improvements in performance, fuel efficiency, and driving dynamics. One notable trend is the increasing prevalence of automatic transmissions, driven by consumer demand for convenience and seamless driving experiences. Continuously variable transmissions (CVTs) have also gained traction due to their ability to optimize engine performance across a wide range of driving conditions.

Furthermore, the industry has witnessed a growing emphasis on electrification and hybridization, with hybrid and electric vehicles (HEVs) featuring innovative transmission systems tailored to their unique powertrain configurations. Dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs) have emerged as a popular choice for electrified vehicles, offering rapid gear shifts and enhanced efficiency. The industry has seen remarkable progress in the past two decades, marked by increased speed numbers, expanded ratio spread, enhanced efficiency, and improved shift quality. With the rise of stringent emissions regulations and the demand for better fuel economy, automotive transmissions are shifting towards electrification.

This transition is driven by the need to comply with environmental standards and cater to the growing market for electric and hybrid vehicles. This shift includes configuration design, energy management strategies, hybrid mode shifting control, single-speed and multi-speed electric vehicle transmissions, and distributed electric drive systems. As the industry progresses, there is a continuous focus on developing new transmission schemes and optimizing parameters to meet the evolving demands of the automotive market. Automobile component manufacturers in the industry are striving to provide cost-efficient solutions without compromising on vehicle performance.

They are implementing numerous growth strategies to meet the increasing demand for transmission systems across the automobile industry. For instance, Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd. is focused on consolidating development and production capabilities for Toyota Motor Corp.’s manual transmission products under Aisin AI. Consolidating their capabilities will enable the companies to meet the worldwide demand and strengthen the competitiveness of their manual systems business.

Market Drivers

• Urbanization and Traffic Congestion: The ongoing trend of urbanization and the resulting increase in traffic congestion in cities worldwide are driving demand for transmission systems optimized for stop-and-go driving conditions and low-speed maneuverability. As more people migrate to urban areas and rely on vehicles for daily transportation, there is a growing need for transmission systems that can deliver smooth and efficient performance in congested urban environments. This trend is driving the development of transmission technologies such as dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs), which offer rapid gear shifts and seamless acceleration, as well as hybrid transmission systems that combine electric and internal combustion power sources for enhanced efficiency in urban driving scenarios.
• Consumer Preferences and Demands: Consumer preferences and demands play a significant role in shaping the automotive transmission system industry, influencing the development of new transmission technologies and features. For instance, there is a growing preference for vehicles equipped with automatic transmissions due to their convenience, ease of use, and smooth driving experience. Additionally, consumers are increasingly seeking vehicles with improved fuel efficiency, reduced emissions, and enhanced performance, driving the adoption of transmission systems that can deliver on these key attributes. Moreover, shifting consumer preferences towards electric and hybrid vehicles are spurring innovation in transmission systems tailored to electrified powertrains, such as e-transmissions optimized for electric motor integration and power-split transmissions for hybrid configurations. By closely monitoring consumer trends and preferences, transmission manufacturers can tailor their products and strategies to meet evolving market demands and stay ahead of the competition.

Market Challenges

• Transitioning Workforce and Skillsets: The rapid pace of technological innovation in the automotive transmission system industry presents a significant challenge in terms of workforce readiness and skillsets. As transmission systems become increasingly complex and reliant on advanced technologies such as electrification, autonomous driving, and connectivity, there is a growing need for engineers, technicians, and automotive professionals with specialized knowledge and expertise in these areas. Transmission manufacturers must invest in training and upskilling programs to ensure that their workforce remains equipped to design, develop, and maintain the transmission systems of tomorrow.
• Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Uncertainties: The automotive transmission system industry is highly dependent on a global supply chain for sourcing raw materials, components, and subsystems. Disruptions to the supply chain, whether due to natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, or global pandemics, can have a significant impact on production schedules, costs, and profitability for transmission manufacturers. To mitigate supply chain risks and uncertainties, companies must adopt agile and resilient supply chain strategies, diversify sourcing options, and establish robust contingency plans to ensure continuity of operations in the face of unforeseen disruptions.

Market Trends

• Lightweight Materials and Compact Designs: Automakers are continually striving to improve fuel efficiency and reduce vehicle weight to meet stringent emission regulations and consumer demands for eco-friendly vehicles. This trend towards lightweighting and compact design extends to transmission systems, where manufacturers are exploring the use of advanced materials such as high-strength steel, aluminum alloys, and carbon fiber composites to reduce the weight of transmission components without compromising strength or durability. Additionally, advancements in manufacturing techniques, such as precision machining and 3D printing, are enabling the production of more compact and integrated transmission designs, further enhancing vehicle efficiency and packaging.
• Enhanced Connectivity and Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) Integration: With the rise of connected vehicles and the Internet of Things (IoT), there is a growing emphasis on enhancing the connectivity and intelligence of automotive transmission systems. By integrating with vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I), and vehicle-to-cloud (V2C) communication networks, transmission systems can access real-time data on road conditions, traffic patterns, and weather forecasts to optimize gear shifts and adapt to changing driving scenarios. Moreover, connectivity enables remote diagnostics and over-the-air (OTA) software updates, allowing transmission manufacturers to continuously improve performance, reliability, and efficiency throughout the vehicle's lifecycle.

Automatic transmissions are leading in the automotive transmission system industry due to their convenience, ease of use, and seamless driving experience, particularly in urban and stop-and-go traffic conditions.

Automatic transmissions have emerged as the dominant choice in the automotive transmission system industry primarily because they offer unparalleled convenience and ease of use for drivers. Unlike manual transmissions, which require manual gear shifting by the driver, automatic transmissions employ a hydraulic or electronic system to automatically change gears based on driving conditions and vehicle speed. This automation eliminates the need for clutch operation and manual gear changes, making driving less demanding and more accessible to a broader range of drivers, including those with limited manual dexterity or experience.

Additionally, automatic transmissions excel in urban and stop-and-go traffic conditions, where frequent acceleration and deceleration are required. In congested city streets or during rush hour commutes, the smooth and seamless gear shifts of automatic transmissions provide a stress-free driving experience, reducing driver fatigue and enhancing overall comfort. Furthermore, advancements in automatic transmission technology, such as the development of continuously variable transmissions (CVTs) and dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs), have further improved fuel efficiency, performance, and driving dynamics, solidifying the position of automatic transmissions as the preferred choice for modern vehicles.

Passenger vehicles are leading in the automotive transmission system industry due to their sheer volume and diversity of applications, encompassing a wide range of vehicle types, driving environments, and consumer preferences.

Passenger vehicles have emerged as the dominant segment in the automotive transmission system industry primarily because of their widespread use and diverse range of applications. This category encompasses various vehicle types, including passenger cars, two-wheelers, SUVs, minivans, and crossover vehicles, each tailored to meet the specific needs and preferences of consumers worldwide. Passenger vehicles are integral to daily transportation, commuting, leisure, and recreational activities, accounting for a significant portion of global vehicle sales and registrations.

As a result, the demand for transmission systems for passenger vehicles far surpasses that of commercial vehicles or heavy-duty trucks, driving innovation and investment in transmission technologies tailored to passenger vehicle applications. Furthermore, the diversity within the passenger vehicle segment presents transmission manufacturers with a multitude of opportunities to develop specialized transmission systems optimized for different driving environments, performance requirements, and fuel efficiency goals.

For example, automatic transmissions are favored in passenger cars and SUVs for their convenience, ease of use, and smooth driving experience, while manual transmissions remain popular among enthusiasts seeking greater control and engagement. Two-wheelers, such as motorcycles and scooters, typically feature manual or automatic transmissions optimized for lightweight, compact designs and agile maneuverability.

Moreover, the passenger vehicle segment is highly responsive to evolving consumer trends, regulatory requirements, and technological advancements, driving continuous innovation and refinement in transmission systems. From the integration of electrified powertrains and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) to the development of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies, passenger vehicles serve as the vanguard for innovation and progress in the industry.

The Asia-Pacific region is leading in the automotive transmission system industry due to its burgeoning automotive market, rapid industrialization, and robust manufacturing capabilities, coupled with the presence of key automotive hubs and major players in the region.

The Asia-Pacific region has emerged as a powerhouse in the automotive transmission system industry, driven by several key factors that have propelled its growth and dominance in the global market. One of the primary reasons for the region's leadership is its vast and rapidly expanding automotive market, fueled by rising incomes, urbanization, and increasing demand for personal mobility across countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. As millions of new vehicles hit the roads each year, there is a corresponding surge in the demand for automotive transmission systems to power these vehicles, driving significant investment and growth in the region's transmission manufacturing sector.

Moreover, the Asia-Pacific region benefits from rapid industrialization and technological advancement, which have fostered the development of sophisticated manufacturing capabilities and supply chain infrastructure. Countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea are renowned for their expertise in automotive manufacturing and engineering, boasting state-of-the-art production facilities and a skilled workforce capable of producing high-quality transmission systems efficiently and cost-effectively. This manufacturing prowess has made the region a preferred destination for global automakers and transmission manufacturers seeking to leverage economies of scale and tap into the region's vast market potential.

The Asia-Pacific region is home to several key automotive hubs and major players in the automotive transmission system industry, including leading transmission manufacturers, automotive OEMs, and component suppliers. These companies benefit from proximity to key markets, access to local talent and resources, and strategic partnerships with domestic and international stakeholders, further reinforcing the region's position as a global leader in automotive transmission technology and innovation.

Supportive government policies, investment incentives, and collaborations between industry players and research institutions have fostered an environment conducive to innovation and technological advancement in the automotive transmission system industry. From the development of hybrid and electric vehicle transmissions to the integration of advanced connectivity and autonomous driving technologies, the Asia-Pacific region continues to drive the evolution of automotive transmission systems, shaping the future of mobility and transportation on a global scale.

• In December 2023, ZF Friedrichshafen AG expanded the local production of transmissions and axles in Coimbatore, India. The expansion includes a new plant catering to domestic and selected export markets. To fulfill customer expectations, the company aims to meet rising demands for intelligent systems, sustainable tech, and swift development cycles.
• In September 2023, Aisin Corporation presented a range of electrification technologies and innovations at the 2023 Detroit Auto Show. It includes advanced axles for enhanced energy efficiency, a 1-motor Hybrid Transmission, and a 2-motor Hybrid System for improved performance.
• In May 2022, Magna commences production of a new 7-speed, mild hybrid dual-clutch transverse transmission for BMW Group. Magna is the only mild hybrid transmission supplier for the BMW Group platform for all front-transverse applications. This mild hybrid gearbox tech cuts CO2 emissions from an internal combustion engine by a significant amount.

Years considered in this report:

• Historic year: 2018
• Base year: 2023
• Estimated year: 2024
• Forecast year: 2029

Aspects covered in the report:

• Automotive Transmission market Outlook with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

By Transmission Type:

• Manual
• Automatic
• Automated Manual Transmission (AMT)
• Others (CVT, DCT)

By Vehicle Type:

• Passenger Vehicles (passenger cars, Two wheelers, Suv,..)
• LCVs
• HCVs

The approach of the report:

This report consists of a combined approach of primary and secondary research. Initially, secondary research was used to get an understanding of the market and list the companies that are present in it. The secondary research consists of third-party sources such as press releases, annual reports of companies, and government-generated reports and databases.

After gathering the data from secondary sources, primary research was conducted by conducting telephone interviews with the leading players about how the market is functioning and then conducting trade calls with dealers and distributors of the market. After this, the analysts made primary calls to consumers by equally segmenting them in regional aspects, tier aspects, age group, and gender. Once the analysts acquired primary data, they started verifying the details obtained from secondary sources.

Intended audience:

This report can be useful to industry consultants, manufacturers, suppliers, associations, and organizations related to the Automotive Transmission industry, government bodies, and other stakeholders to align their market-centric strategies. In addition to marketing and presentations, it will also increase competitive knowledge about the industry.

Keywords:

Automotive Transmission, Manual, Automatic, Automated Manual Transmission (AMT), Others (CVT, DCT), Passenger Vehicles (passenger cars, Two wheelers, Suv,..), LCVs, HCVs.