Automotive Transmission Market Overview, 2024-2029

The Global automotive transmission market plays a central role in keeping vehicles moving efficiently and smoothly. Transmissions are responsible for transferring power from the engine to the wheels, allowing for optimal control over vehicle speed and acceleration. The market encompasses a diverse range of transmission technologies, each catering to specific vehicle types, performance requirements, and fuel efficiency goals. Automatic transmissions (at) reign supreme globally, capture the lion's share of the market.

However, advancements in technology are leading to a resurgence of interest in alternative options like continuously variable transmissions (cvt) and dual-clutch transmissions (dct), while manual transmissions (mt) continue to hold a niche within the landscape. Beyond the dominance of automatics, a unique aspect of the Global automotive transmission market lies in the regional variations in transmission preferences. North America exhibits a strong cultural preference for automatic transmissions, driven by factors like convenience, ease of driving in stop-and-go traffic, and advancements in automatic technology that address historical concerns regarding fuel efficiency.

In contrast, Europe presents a more balanced market with significant adoption of both automatic and manual transmissions. European consumers often place a premium on driving dynamics and may favor manuals for a more connected and engaging driving experience. However, the convenience of automatics, particularly in urban environments, is gaining traction within the European market. The rapid growth of the automotive industry in emerging markets like China and India is significantly impacting the Global automotive transmission landscape.

These regions are witnessing a surge in demand for passenger cars, with a growing preference for automatic transmissions due to factors like rising disposable incomes, urbanization, and increasing traffic congestion. However, cost-consciousness remains a significant factor, particularly in developing nations. This creates an opportunity for manufacturers to offer budget-friendly automatic transmission options alongside traditional manual transmissions. Furthermore, the growing popularity of electric vehicles (evs) presents a unique wrinkle in the Global transmission market equation.

While some evs utilize single-speed gear reduction units, many higher-performance models are adopting multi-speed transmissions to optimize performance and efficiency. This trend, coupled with the ongoing evolution of traditional transmission technologies and the increasing adoption of automatics in emerging markets, is expected to shape the future of the Global automotive transmission market.

According to the research report, the market is anticipated to cross USD 224 billion by 2029, increasing from USD 161 billion in 2023. A multitude of raw materials are essential for transmission production, including steel, aluminum, magnesium alloys, and various elastomers for seals and gaskets. The availability and pricing of these raw materials can significantly impact production costs and ultimately influence the overall market landscape. For instance, fluctuations in Global steel prices can have a ripple effect on transmission manufacturers, necessitating adjustments in pricing strategies or sourcing practices.

Furthermore, geopolitical factors and trade policies can disrupt the flow of critical raw materials, highlighting the importance of geographically diverse supply chains and robust risk management strategies within the automotive transmission market. Beyond raw materials, the Global automotive transmission market is shaped by the capabilities and strategies of key players across the supply chain. Tier 1 automotive suppliers, often specializing in transmission development and manufacturing, play a pivotal role. These companies collaborate with car manufacturers (oems) to design and integrate transmissions that meet specific vehicle performance and fuel efficiency requirements.

Tier 2 and tier 3 suppliers further contribute to the ecosystem by providing various transmission components, from bearings and gears to electronic control units. The ability to foster strong partnerships and navigate a complex web of suppliers is crucial for success within the Global automotive transmission market. The Global automotive transmission market exhibits significant variations in terms of price segmentation and aftermarket considerations. Developed markets, with established car ownership cultures and a higher propensity for automatic transmissions, often see a premium placed on advanced features and functionalities within transmissions. This translates into a higher average selling price (asp) for transmissions in these regions.

Conversely, developing markets, where affordability remains a key consideration, may see a larger market share for basic manual transmissions or lower-priced automatic options. Aftermarket considerations also differ geographically. Developed markets often have a well-established network of authorized dealers and repair shops for genuine transmission parts. However, developing markets may have a larger presence of independent repair shops and a reliance on potentially lower-cost, aftermarket transmission components. Catering to these regional variations in pricing strategies and aftermarket considerations is essential for navigating the complexities of the Global automotive transmission market.

Stringent regulations governing safety and emissions standards play a significant role in shaping the Global automotive transmission market. Regulatory bodies like the us environmental protection agency (epa) and the European union's directorate-general for mobility and transport (dg move) establish strict guidelines for fuel efficiency and emissions performance. This compels transmission manufacturers to develop innovative technologies that optimize power delivery and minimize energy losses within the transmission system.

Furthermore, safety regulations dictating gear shifting behavior, torque handling capabilities, and overall transmission durability are paramount in ensuring occupant safety on the road. Navigating this intricate regulatory landscape and adhering to evolving standards is a key challenge and opportunity for players within the Global automotive transmission market.

Market Drivers:

Stringent fuel economy and emissions regulations: one of the most significant drivers for the Global automotive transmission market is the enforcement of increasingly stringent fuel economy and emissions regulations by governments around the world. Regulatory bodies like the us environmental protection agency (epa) and the European union's directorate-general for mobility and transport (dg move) are setting ambitious targets for reducing vehicle emissions and improving fuel efficiency. This compels car manufacturers to invest in advanced transmission technologies that optimize power delivery and minimize energy losses within the drivetrain. As a result, the demand for transmissions that contribute to improved fuel economy and reduced emissions is expected to remain a key driver within the Global market.

Growing demand for automatic transmissions in emerging market: A significant driver for the Global automotive transmission market is the rising demand for automatic transmissions in emerging markets. Historically, manual transmissions dominated in these regions due to their affordability. However, factors like increasing disposable incomes, urbanization, and a growing preference for comfort and convenience are driving a shift towards automatic transmissions. This trend is particularly evident in countries like China and India, where the burgeoning automotive industry is witnessing a surge in demand for automatic-equipped vehicles. This presents a significant opportunity for transmission manufacturers to cater to the evolving needs of consumers in emerging markets.

advancements in transmission control systems and software: The Global automotive transmission market is being driven forward by advancements in transmission control systems and software. Modern transmissions often utilize sophisticated electronic control units (ecus) that manage gear selection, torque converter operation, and overall transmission behavior.

These ecus can be programmed to optimize performance for various driving conditions, further contributing to improved fuel efficiency and smoother gear changes. Additionally, advancements in software development are enabling the integration of transmission control systems with other vehicle technologies, such as engine management systems and driver-assistance features. This level of integration allows for a more holistic approach to vehicle operation, further enhancing performance, efficiency, and safety.

Market Challenges:

• Rising raw material costs and supply chain disruptions: The Global automotive transmission market faces significant challenges due to rising raw material costs and potential supply chain disruptions. Transmissions rely on various raw materials, including steel, aluminum, and specialty alloys. Fluctuations in the Global prices of these materials can significantly impact production costs for transmission manufacturers. Furthermore, geopolitical events and trade disputes can disrupt the flow of critical raw materials, leading to production delays and shortages. Mitigating these challenges requires implementing robust risk management strategies, diversifying supply chains, and exploring alternative materials with potentially lower price volatility.
• High development costs for advanced transmission technologies: The development of advanced transmission technologies, such as multi-speed automatic transmissions and those specifically designed for evs, necessitates significant investment in research and development (r&d). These advanced transmissions often utilize complex control systems and lightweight materials, pushing the boundaries of engineering and manufacturing capabilities. The high development costs associated with advanced transmission technologies can pose a challenge for smaller players within the Global automotive transmission market. This can lead to a consolidation within the industry, with larger players potentially acquiring smaller ones to gain access to cutting-edge technologies and spread the r&d costs. Furthermore, collaboration between car manufacturers (oems) and transmission suppliers is crucial for cost-sharing and ensuring successful integration of advanced transmissions within new vehicle models.
• The rise of electric vehicles and the uncertainty surrounding future transmission needs: The burgeoning electric vehicle (ev) market presents both an opportunity and a challenge for the Global automotive transmission market. While some evs utilize single-speed gear reduction units, the specific transmission needs of the future ev landscape remain uncertain. The development of multi-speed transmissions for evs is ongoing, but their long-term viability compared to simpler gear reduction units depends on factors like battery range, motor efficiency, and overall vehicle design. This uncertainty surrounding future transmission needs poses a challenge for manufacturers, requiring the m to be adaptable and invest in research to cater to the evolving needs of the electric vehicle market.

Market Trends:

Rise of advanced automatic transmissions (ats) with more gears: A significant trend in the Global automotive transmission market is the surging popularity of advanced automatic transmissions with an increasing number of gears. Traditionally, automatic transmissions offered a limited number of gears compared to manuals, potentially sacrificing fuel efficiency for convenience.

However, advancements in transmission technology have led to the development of sophisticated ats with 8, 9, or even 10 speeds. These transmissions offer smoother gear changes, wider gear ratios, and improved engine performance across the rpm range. This translates into a more engaging driving experience for consumers while simultaneously achieving better fuel economy and reduced emissions, making the m a compelling option for both car manufacturers and drivers.

Integration of advanced driver-assistance systems (adas: The Global automotive transmission market is witnessing a growing integration of advanced driver-assistance systems (adas) with transmissions. Adas features like adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning, and automatic emergency braking rely on sophisticated sensors and computing power to function effectively. Modern transmissions are increasingly incorporating electronic control units (ecus) that can communicate seamlessly with adas systems.

This allows for real-time adjustments to gear selection and engine torque based on road conditions and traffic patterns, optimizing vehicle performance and enhancing overall safety. The integration of adas with transmissions presents a unique opportunity for market players to develop innovative solutions that contribute to the advancement of autonomous driving technologies.

Focus on lightweight materials and design optimization: A crucial trend within the Global automotive transmission market is the emphasis on lightweight materials and design optimization. As fuel efficiency regulations tighten and environmental concerns escalate, car manufacturers are striving to reduce vehicle weight. Transmission manufacturers are responding by developing transmissions that utilize high-strength, low-weight materials like aluminum alloys and magnesium.

Additionally, advancements in computer-aided design (cad) and simulation software allow for optimized transmission designs that minimize weight while maintaining structural integrity and performance capabilities. This trend towards lightweight transmissions not only contributes to improved fuel economy but also translates into a lower environmental footprint for vehicles throughout their lifecycle.

Automatic automotive transmission leads in the automotive transmission market due to comfort, fuel efficiency advancements, and technological integration

In the Global automotive transmission market, automatic automotive transmissions (at) reign supreme, accounting for the largest market share and witnessing significant growth. This dominance can be attributed to several key factors that resonate across diverse geographic landscapes. Firstly, automatic automotive transmissions offer a more convenient and user-friendly driving experience, particularly in congested urban environments or stop-and-go traffic situations. The absence of a clutch pedal and manual gear shifting allows drivers to focus on navigation and road conditions, reducing fatigue and potentially improving overall driving safety.

This convenience factor is particularly attractive to new drivers, novice motorists, and individuals seeking a more relaxed driving experience. Secondly, advancements in automatic automotive transmission technology have addressed historical concerns regarding fuel efficiency. Modern automatic automotive transmissions, particularly those employing multiple gears (e.g., 6-speed, 8-speed, or even 10-speed automatics), offer smooth gear changes and optimized power delivery, leading to improved fuel economy compared to their earlier counterparts. Additionally, the integration of intelligent control systems that adapt to driving styles and road conditions further optimizes fuel efficiency for automatic automotive transmissions.

Furthermore, automatic automotive transmissions are increasingly being equipped with advanced features like paddle shifters, allowing drivers to experience a degree of manual control when desired. This combination of convenience and optional driver engagement caters to a wider range of preferences within the Global market. The growing popularity of suvs and crossover vehicles, which often prioritize comfort and ease of driving, further fuels the dominance of automatic automotive transmissions. These larger vehicles tend to be equipped with powerful engines, and modern automatic automotive transmissions are well-suited to handle the increased torque and power output, delivering smooth and efficient performance.

Passenger vehicles lead in the automotive transmission market due to the growing middle class, technological advancements, and growing ev market

Within the Global automotive transmission market, the passenger vehicles segment reigns supreme, driven by a confluence of factors. Firstly, the sheer volume of passenger vehicles produced and sold globally dwarfs that of other vehicle types. The growing middle class in developing economies, particularly in asia, is fueling a surge in demand for affordable passenger cars, further propelling the passenger vehicle segment within the automotive transmission market. Secondly, advancements in automotive transmission technologies specifically designed for passenger vehicles are fostering market growth.

The development of fuel-efficient automatic automotive transmissions, dual-clutch automotive transmissions (dcts), and continuously variable automotive transmissions (cvts) is a key driver. These advancements offer improved fuel economy, smoother gear changes, and enhanced driving experiences, making the m attractive options for consumers. Additionally, the increasing popularity of hybrid and electric vehicles (hevs and evs) within the passenger car segment presents a unique opportunity for the automotive transmission market. Hevs often utilize a combination of electric motors and internal combustion engines, necessitating specialized powertrain configurations that integrate electric motors with traditional automotive transmissions.

Similarly, some ev architectures incorporate single-speed automotive transmissions for enhanced efficiency or multi-speed automotive transmissions to optimize performance at higher speeds. These trends highlight the evolving nature of automotive transmissions within the passenger vehicle segment, with a growing focus on efficiency, performance, and compatibility with alternative powertrain technologies. While the passenger vehicle segment undeniably leads the Global automotive transmission market, it's important to acknowledge the continued significance of light commercial vehicles (lcvs) and heavy commercial vehicles (hcvs).

North America leads in the automotive transmission market due to the region’s established automotive sector, growing middle class, and government regulations

The asia-pacific (apac) region has emerged as the undisputed leader in the Global automotive transmission market, boasting a dominant share and significant growth potential. This leadership position can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, the apac region is home to the world's largest automotive manufacturers, including China, Japan, and South Korea. These automotive giants produce a vast array of vehicles, from entry-level commuter cars to luxury sedans and suvs, all requiring a diverse range of transmission technologies. Secondly, the burgeoning middle class across many apac countries is fueling a surge in car ownership, further driving demand for transmissions.

Furthermore, government regulations in some apac countries promote fuel efficiency, and advancements in automatic transmission technology have made the m increasingly competitive with manuals in terms of fuel economy. This has led to a growing consumer preference for automatics in the region, particularly in countries with densely populated urban areas where automatic transmissions offer greater comfort and convenience in stop-and-go traffic. The presence of a robust supply chain for automotive parts within the apac region further strengthens its position in the Global transmission market.

Established domestic and international manufacturers cater to the high demand for transmissions, fostering a competitive environment that drives innovation and cost-effectiveness. Additionally, government initiatives in some apac countries promote localization of automotive component production, including transmissions. This not only reduces dependence on imports but also fosters the development of a more self-sufficient automotive industry within the region.

• May 2024: the 2025 Honda civic eliminates the manual transmission option for several trim levels, including sport and sport touring, previously available with a 6-speed manual and a 2.0-liter four-cylinder engine. This move signifies a potential decline in manual transmission offerings within the compact car segment, catering to a broader consumer preference for automatics. While the standard civic retains a continuously variable transmission (cvt), the introduction of a new hybrid powertrain with an automatic transmission in the sport and sport touring trims reflects a strategic shift towards fuel efficiency and broader market appeal.
• January 2024: a recent development in the Indian automotive transmission market is the introduction of the first-ever cng cars with automatic manual transmission (amt) technology. Tata motors unveiled the tiago and tigor icng amt models, marking a significant step towards offering increased convenience and fuel efficiency in the cng vehicle segment. Traditionally, cng vehicles have been offered with manual transmissions. This launch caters to a growing consumer demand for automatic gearboxes, particularly in urban areas with stop-and-go traffic. The new icng amt models are expected to broaden the appeal of cng vehicles in India.
• September 2023: German automotive parts manufacturer zf achieved a significant milestone by producing its one-millionth traxon transmission unit. Notably, the traxon is an automated manual transmission (amt) designed specifically for heavy-duty commercial vehicles like long-haul trucks and tractors. This news signifies the growing popularity of amts within the heavy-duty commercial vehicle segment, potentially indicating a trend towards increased adoption of these transmissions due to their ability to combine the efficiency of automatics with the performance of manuals. Also, zf is gearing up for the series production launch of the traxon 2, the successor to the millionth unit traxon. This suggests continued innovation and development within the amt space for heavy-duty commercial vehicles.

Years considered in this report:

• Historic year: 2018
• Base year: 2023
• Estimated year: 2024
• Forecast year: 2029

Aspects covered in the report:

• Automotive Transmission market Outlook with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendations

By Transmission Type:

• Manual
• Automatic
• Automated Manual Transmission (AMT)
• Others (CVT, DCT)

By Vehicle Type:

• Passenger Vehicles (passenger cars, Two wheelers, Suv,..)
• LCVs
• HCVs

The approach of the report:

This report consists of a combined approach of primary and secondary research. Initially, secondary research was used to get an understanding of the market and list the companies that are present in it. The secondary research consists of third-party sources such as press releases, annual reports of companies, and government-generated reports and databases.

After gathering the data from secondary sources, primary research was conducted by conducting telephone interviews with the leading players about how the market is functioning and then conducting trade calls with dealers and distributors of the market. After this, the analysts made primary calls to consumers by equally segmenting them in regional aspects, tier aspects, age group, and gender. Once they acquired the primary data, they started verifying the details obtained from secondary sources.

Intended audience:

This report can be useful to industry consultants, manufacturers, suppliers, associations, and organizations related to the Automotive Transmission industry, government bodies, and other stakeholders to align their market-centric strategies. In addition to marketing and presentations, it will also increase competitive knowledge about the industry.

Keywords:

Automotive Transmission, Manual, Automatic, Automated Manual Transmission (AMT), Others (CVT, DCT), Passenger Vehicles (passenger cars, Two wheelers, Suv,..), LCVs, HCVs.