Although the pharmaceutical industry is often labeled as a recession-resistant, it is not immune to future challenges. Ongoing issues such as constraints on drug pricing and reimbursement (P&R), the evolving regulatory landscape, pressures to innovate, and pressures to address environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues will continue to pose challenges for the pharmaceutical sector in the coming years. In this “The State of the Biopharmaceutical Industry” report, The analyst examines the business environment and trends that are going to shape the biopharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months.
- The biopharmaceutical industry’s optimism regarding growth in the next 12 months is on the rise, but still below the levels seen in 2022.
- A total of 56% of survey respondents shared optimistic or very optimistic sentiment on the biotech funding recovery in 2024.
- The top-rated industry trends anticipated for the next 12 months include anti-obesity medications, personalized/precision medicine, immuno-oncology drug development, real-world evidence, and cell and gene therapies.
- Anti-obesity medications were identified as the emerging pharmaceutical industry trend to have the greatest impact for 2024.
- From macro and regulatory trends, vertical integration, drug pricing and reimbursement pressures, and patent expiration of biologics are expected to have the greatest positive impact on the pharmaceutical industry.
- Geopolitical conflicts and drug pricing and reimbursement pressures will be the main hindrances for pharmaceutical sector growth.
- Pharmaceutical companies will keep a close watch on both the BIOSECURE Act and EU Pharmaceutical Reform.
- The Inflation Reduction Act is believed to make government price negotiation more likely across all pharmaceuticals.
- Donanemab for Alzheimer’s disease is poised for major commercial success among the 2024 launches.
- Oncology, central nervous system, and infectious diseases are the dominant areas for clinical trials initiated in 2023.
- Oncology dominates the therapy landscape in 2024, but metabolic disorders display the highest growth.
- Big data and artificial intelligence will continue to dominate as transformational forces in the healthcare sector in the next 12 moths.
Key Highlights
- Optimism is rising about pharmaceutical industry growth in the next 12 months.
- Anti-obesity medications will take center stage.
- Geopolitical conflicts, as well as drug pricing and reimbursement-related concerns, will impede industry growth.
- Vertical integration, drug pricing and reimbursement constraints, and biologics’ patent expiry will have the most positive impacts on industry.
- AI is positioned to bring disruptive change to the pharmaceutical industry.
- Biotech funding continues to show signs of recovery after its post-COVID-19 pandemic decline.
Scope
- The report highlights the most impactful emerging technologies, industry trends, regulatory trends, and macroeconomic factors that are going to impact and dominate the industry throughout the next 12 months.
- Benchmark the impact of major themes on the biopharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months, including: emerging technologies, regulatory trends, macroeconomic trends, industry trends.
- Identify themes that will have the greatest positive or negative impact in the next 12 months.
- Capture opinions on these themes from industry respondents.
- Predict the industry’s growth prospects in the next 12 months.
Reasons to Buy
- Stay up to date with the major emerging technologies, regulatory, macroeconomic, and industry trends that will impact the pharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months.
- Explore how the biopharmaceutical landscape has changed.
- Identify the most impactful anticipated regulatory approvals and drug launches in the industry in the next 12 months.
- Gain insight into the regulatory and microeconomics trends that will have positive and negative effects on the biopharmaceutical industry.
- Identify emerging industry trends and innovations to gain a competitive advantage.
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary2. Study Design
3. Emerging Industry Trends
4. Emerging Regulatory and Macroeconomic Trends
5. Emerging Technologies
6. Industry’s Growth Prospects
7. Watch Outs
8. Summary of Key Findings
9. Appendix
10. Authors and Contributors
11. Contact the Publisher
List of Tables
Table 1: Spotlight on personalized/precision medicine
Table 2: Spotlight on patient empowerment
Table 3: Geopolitical Risk Summary
Table 4: Emissions across the pharmaceutical value chain
Table 5: Emerging technologies expected to have the greatest impact on the pharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months, 2020-2024 mid-year
Table 6: Drug price negotiation timeline for implementation by 2026
Table 7: Products selected for Medicare price negotiation
Table 8: Key clinical trials in 2024
Table 9: Abbreviations
Table 10: Abbreviations
Table 11: Related reports
List of Figures
Figure 1: Respondent Mix - Geography
Figure 2a: Respondent Mix - Seniority Level
Figure 2b: Respondent Mix - Company size
Figure 3: Respondent Mix - Headquarter locations
Figure 4: Anticipated impact of emerging industry trends on the pharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months
Figure 5: The most impactful industry trends by region
Figure 6: The most impactful industry trends by region
Figure 7: Industry trends having the greatest impact on the pharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months
Figure 8: Spotlight on anti-obesity medications
Figure 9: Number of real-world evidence trials by sponsor type and year
Figure 10: Top technologies best positioned to improve each of the processes within the pharmaceutical value chain
Figure 11: AI can be used across the entire pharma value chain
Figure 12: Reasons for current drug shortages in the US
Figure 13: Spotlight on cell and gene therapy
Figure 14: Spotlight on immuno-oncology
Figure 15: Spotlight on antibody-drug conjugates
Figure 16: Spotlight on mRNA vaccines in oncology
Figure 17: Spotlight on mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases
Figure 18: Spotlight on microbiome
Figure 19: Spotlight on decentralized/virtual clinical
Figure 20: Percentage of clinical trials using decentralized/virtual clinical trial components
Figure 21: Anticipated impact of emerging regulatory and macroeconomic trends on the pharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months
Figure 22: Geopolitical conflicts
Figure 23: Pharmaceutical price trends, 2019-2023
Figure 24: Number of 2023 risk events with a positive or negative impact on market access
Figure 25: Inflation and recession mentions in annual company reports, 2016-24 (YTD)
Figure 26: Regulatory and macroeconomic trends expected to have the greatest positive/negative impact on the pharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months
Figure 27: Top positive emerging regulatory and macroeconomic trends - strongest positive scores by geography
Figure 28: Impact of biologic patent expiration and biosimilars on the Crohn’s disease market
Figure 29: Biosimilar competition
Figure 30: Global sales - Humira (adalimumab)
Figure 31: Dose manufacture outsourcing of small molecule and biologic NMEs
Figure 32: Where Do Corporate Greenhouse Gas Emissions Come From?
Figure 33: Reduction of scope 1 and 2 emissions
Figure 34: Anticipated impact of emerging technologies on the pharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months
Figure 35: Anticipated impact of emerging technologies on the pharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months, 2020-2024 mid-year
Figure 36: Emerging technologies expected to have the greatest impact on the pharmaceutical industry in the next 12 months
Figure 37: Increase in investment in emerging technologies due to inflation
Figure 38: Decrease in investment in emerging technologies due to inflation
Figure 39: Optimism about the industry’s growth during the next 12 months
Figure 40: Optimism about the industry’s growth during the next 12 months, 2021-2024 mid-year
Figure 41: Spotlight on radiotherapeutics
Figure 42: Spotlight on radiotherapeutics
Figure 43: The IRA’s impact on the biopharmaceutical industry
Figure 44: EU pharmaceutical reform
Figure 45: Distribution of average time to pricing by country
Figure 46: EU pharmaceutical reform: lag in new medicine approvals hinges on the outcome of EU reforms
Figure 47: Impact of the BIOSECURE Act
Figure 48: Top five implications for the pharmaceutical supply chain if the BIOSECURE Act passes, by geography
Figure 49: Optimism regarding biotech funding recovery in the next 12 months
Figure 50: Support measures to tackle the downturn in biotech funding
Figure 51: Promising signs of a rebound in private biotech venture financing
Figure 52: Increase in large pharma M&A signals a return in deal-making confidence
Figure 53: Planned trials in 2024
Figure 54: Planned trials in 2024
Figure 55: Planned trials in 2024
Figure 56: Projected trial completion in 2024
Figure 57: Top 10 selling drugs - 2023 vs 2024
Figure 58: Top 10 therapy areas - 2023 vs 2024
Figure 59: Drug launches - 2024 mid-year update
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- AbbVie
- Accord Healthcare
- Actinium Pharmaceuticals
- Adaptimmune Therapeutics
- Aetna
- Akeso
- Almac
- Altor Bioscience
- Alvotech
- Amazon
- Amgen
- Amylyx Pharmaceuticals
- Astellas Pharma
- AstraZeneca
- Autolus Therapeutics
- Biocon Biologics
- Biogen
- BioNTech
- Bio-Thera Solutions
- Boehringer Ingelheim
- BridgeBio Pharma
- Bristol Myers Squibb
- Catalent
- CeleCor Therapeutics
- Celltrion
- Chia Tai Tianqing Pharmaceutical
- Cigna
- CVS Health
- Daiichi Sankyo
- Day One Biopharmaceuticals
- Dr. Reddy's Laboratories
- Eli Lilly
- Express Scripts
- F. Hoffmann-La Roche
- Ferring Pharma
- Formycon
- Fresenius Kabi
- Fuji Pharma
- Genmab
- Geron Corp
- Gilead
- IASO Bio
- Incyte
- Intas Pharmaceuticals
- Iovance
- Janssen
- Jazz Pharmaceuticals
- Johnson & Johnson
- Karuna Therapeutics
- Lantheus Holdings
- Merck & Co
- Merus NV
- Mochida Pharmaceutical
- Moderna
- Mylan
- Novartis
- Novo Nordisk
- Ono Pharmaceuticals
- Optum
- Optum-Amedisys
- Pfizer
- Qilu Pharmaceutical
- Regeneron
- RemeGen
- Roche
- Samsung Bioepis
- Sandoz
- Seagen
- Seres Therapeutic
- Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical
- STgen Bio
- Strides Pharma Science
- Syndax Pharmaceuticals
- Thermo Fisher
- UnitedHealth
- Verona Pharma
- Vetter
- Viatris
- WuXi
- Xaira Therapeutics
