Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Global Market Opportunities and Strategies to 2033

This report describes and explains the autonomous last mile delivery market and covers 2018-2023, termed the historic period, and 2023-2028, 2033F termed the forecast period. The report evaluates the market across each region and for the major economies within each region.

The global autonomous last mile delivery market reached a value of nearly $22.11 billion in 2023, having grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 51.99% since 2018. The market is expected to grow from $22.11 billion in 2023 to $80.65 billion in 2028 at a rate of 29.53%. The market is then expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.51% from 2028 and reach $196.6 billion in 2033.

Growth in the historic period resulted from the increase in demand for fast delivery of packages, increased investment in autonomous vehicle technology, expansion of food and grocery delivery start-ups and favorable government policies for autonomous driving industry. Factors that negatively affected growth in the historic period include high initial investment.

Going forward, strong economic growth in emerging markets, increasing urban populations, expansion of the e-commerce industry, scarcity of delivery drivers and demand for reductions in logistics costs will drive the market. Factors that could hinder the growth of the autonomous last mile delivery market in the future include inadequate infrastructure.

The autonomous last mile delivery market is segmented by vehicle type into aerial delivery drone, ground delivery bots and self-driving trucks and vans. The ground delivery bots market was the largest segment of the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by vehicle type, accounting for 49.9% or $11.03 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the aerial delivery drone segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by vehicle type, at a CAGR of 31.49% during 2023-2028.

The autonomous last mile delivery market is segmented by solution into hardware, software and service. The hardware market was the largest segment of the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by solution, accounting for 52% or $11.5 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the software segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by solution, at a CAGR of 30.99% during 2023-2028.

The autonomous last mile delivery market is segmented by range into short range and long range. The short range market was the largest segment of the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by range, accounting for 90.4% or $19.98 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the long range segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by range, at a CAGR of 32.81% during 2023-2028.

The autonomous last mile delivery market is segmented by application into logistics, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, retail and other applications. The retail market was the largest segment of the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by application, accounting for 34.2% or $7.55 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the food and beverages segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by application, at a CAGR of 30.32% during 2023-2028.

North America was the largest region in the autonomous last mile delivery market, accounting for 51.6% or $11.4 billion of the total in 2023. It was followed by Western Europe, Asia-Pacific and then the other regions. Going forward, the fastest-growing regions in the autonomous last mile delivery market will be Africa and South America, where growth will be at CAGRs of 48.04% and 45.31% respectively. These will be followed by Eastern Europe and the Middle East, where the markets are expected to grow at CAGRs of 40.26% and 37.29% respectively.

The global autonomous last mile delivery market is fairly fragmented, with a large number of players operating in the market. The top ten competitors in the market made up 26.93% of the total market in 2022. Amazon.com Inc. was the largest competitor with a 9.06% share of the market, followed by United States Postal Service with 6.42%, JD. Com Inc. with 6.41%, Nuro Inc. with 2.23%, DHL Group with 2.03%, Workhouse Group Incorporated with 0.32%, Kiwi Campus with 0.24%, Matternet Inc. with 0.09%, Flytrex Aviation Ltd. with 0.06% and Continental AG with 0.06%.

The top opportunities in the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by vehicle type will arise in the ground delivery bots segment, which will gain $26.27 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The top opportunities in the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by solution will arise in the hardware segment, which will gain $28.95 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The top opportunities in the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by range will arise in the short range segment, which will gain $51.86 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The top opportunities in the autonomous last mile delivery market segmented by application will arise in the Retail segment, which will gain $22.48 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The autonomous last mile delivery market size will gain the most in the USA at $20.12 billion.

Market-trend-based strategies for the autonomous last mile delivery market include introduction of advanced last-mile autonomous delivery solutions to deliver goods to customers' doorsteps, launch of new AI platforms designed to automate last-mile delivery, strategic partnerships and collaborations among major players and focus on strategic investments to scale operations and expand geographic reach.

Player-adopted strategies in the autonomous last mile delivery market include focus on enhancing business operations through new product developments and expanding business through strategic partnerships.

To take advantage of the opportunities, the analyst recommends the autonomous last mile delivery companies to focus on integrating advanced autonomous delivery solutions, focus on launching AI platforms for last-mile delivery automation, focus on aerial delivery drones market, focus on software segment, expand in emerging markets, focus on expanding distribution channels, focus on strategic partnerships and collaborations, focus on strategic investments to scale operations and enhance technology, focus on competitive pricing strategies, focus on digital marketing campaigns, focus on customer-centric promotions, participate in trade shows and events, continue to use B2B promotions and focus on tailoring services to industry needs.