The global energy transition will require a substantial build out of capacity across key technologies such as solar, wind, energy storage, electric vehicles and low-carbon hydrogen production. This will increase demand across a broad range of critical materials and for some this demand growth will outpace supply. In its critical minerals report, The analyst identifies the most at-risk raw materials necessary for the energy transition, taking into account the importance of each material to different energy transition technologies, the volume of material required, and risk factors to each material’s supply. Using this framework, the report discusses the supply risk of lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, platinum, silicon, and graphite.
The raw materials discussed will experience significant demand increases from energy transition technologies. Despite recent oversupply concerns, lithium arguably remains the most at-risk critical raw material for the long term, with its energy density properties making it a pivotal raw material for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and energy storage more widely. Although miners are increasing their production capacity, which will alleviate the mine side supply risk, lithium refining remains highly geographically concentrated in select countries such as China, creating single source risk in the processing element of the value chain.
Meanwhile, other raw materials such as cobalt, copper, nickel, and graphite, will continue to have a medium-high level of risk in terms of how they could impact energy transition technologies. Large quantities of each material will be required for technologies such as wind, solar, power grids, energy storage, and electric vehicles, which will put pressure on existing supplies while new mines continue to develop.
Materials such as platinum and silicon present a medium to low risk for the energy transition but still require international efforts to secure their supplies as both will face a strong increase in demand in the long term. A widespread and rapid adoption of PEM electrolyzers within hydrogen production will threaten platinum supplies while, despite its importance to solar, silicon still holds one of the most geographically concentrated supply chains.
The raw materials discussed will experience significant demand increases from energy transition technologies. Despite recent oversupply concerns, lithium arguably remains the most at-risk critical raw material for the long term, with its energy density properties making it a pivotal raw material for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and energy storage more widely. Although miners are increasing their production capacity, which will alleviate the mine side supply risk, lithium refining remains highly geographically concentrated in select countries such as China, creating single source risk in the processing element of the value chain.
Meanwhile, other raw materials such as cobalt, copper, nickel, and graphite, will continue to have a medium-high level of risk in terms of how they could impact energy transition technologies. Large quantities of each material will be required for technologies such as wind, solar, power grids, energy storage, and electric vehicles, which will put pressure on existing supplies while new mines continue to develop.
Materials such as platinum and silicon present a medium to low risk for the energy transition but still require international efforts to secure their supplies as both will face a strong increase in demand in the long term. A widespread and rapid adoption of PEM electrolyzers within hydrogen production will threaten platinum supplies while, despite its importance to solar, silicon still holds one of the most geographically concentrated supply chains.
Key Highlights
- Recent years have witnessed a strong increase in demand for key minerals following the increased installation of renewable energy and its supporting infrastructure.
- According to the IEA, mineral demand from clean energy technologies increased from 4.6Mt in 2010 to 7.1Mt in 2020, which represented a CAGR of 4.3% across the time frame.
- According to the analyst’s commodity production forecasts, lithium production is expected to increase at a CAGR of almost 14% between 2024 and 2030, surpassing 500kT by the end of the decade.
- Although alternative battery chemistries are increasingly a focus of research and development efforts, energy storage projects relying on lithium-ion batteries are still expected to see a strong increase between 2023 and the end of the decade, with the energy storage capacity of this sub-technology increasing from 18GWh in 2023 to 54GWh by 2030 as a number of pipeline projects come online.
- While Chile will retain its strong market position in the global copper industry with a pipeline of 97 mine projects where copper is the primary commodity, other countries such as Peru, the United States, Canada, and Australia will also be popular sites for upcoming copper mines.
- China dominates each stage of solar value chain, acting as a leading producer of silicon, with a forecast production capacity of 6mtpa in 2024. China is also a pre-eminent player within wafer, cell, as well as panel and module manufacturing.
Scope
- Risk assessment of critical raw materials required for energy transition technologies
- Risk drivers for critical material value chains
- Lithium supply and demand forecasts
- Lithium active and upcoming mines
- Energy transition technologies driving increased lithium demand
- Analysis of leading countries and companies for lithium
- Copper supply and demand forecasts
- Analysis of upcoming copper projects by geography and development stage
- Analysis of leading countries and companies for copper
- Cobalt supply and demand forecasts
- Project details for largest active and upcoming cobalt mines
- Analysis of leading countries and companies for cobalt
- Nickel supply and demand forecasts
- Project details for largest active and upcoming nickel projects
- Analysis of leading countries and companies for nickel production
- Platinum supply and demand forecasts
- Project details for largest active and upcoming platinum projects
- Analysis of leading countries and companies for platinum production
- Silicon supply and demand analysis
- Top silicon producing countries
- Graphite supply and demand analysis
- Project details for largest active and upcoming graphite projects
- Leading countries and companies for graphite production
Reasons to Buy
- Understand the factors driving risk for the supplies of critical materials necessary for the energy transition.
- Gain an understanding of the critical material demands of energy transition technologies.
- Stay informed about key mining projects that will influence the supplies of critical raw materials
- Gain insight into the geographical characteristics of the critical raw material market
- Understand the key players producing lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, platinum and graphite.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- The Energy Transition and Critical Raw Materials
- Lithium
- Copper
- Cobalt
- Nickel
- Platinum
- Silicon
- Graphite
- Contact the Publisher
- Largest active and upcoming mines with lithium as primary commodity by 2030 expected saleable production
- Largest active mines with cobalt as primary commodity by 2023 production
- Largest upcoming mines with cobalt as primary commodity by 2030 expected production
- Largest active and upcoming mines with nickel as primary commodity by production in 2030
- Largest active and upcoming mines with platinum as primary commodity by production
- Largest active and upcoming mines with graphite as primary commodity by development CAPEX
- Energy transition technology requirements for a net-zero scenario
- Total mineral demand for clean energy technologies by scenario, 2010 - 2040
- Risk factors for critical material supply chains
- Assessing risk across the raw materials needed for the energy transition
- Lithium production forecast, 2015 - 2030 and IEA forecasted demand
- Upcoming lithium mine CAPEX by development stage (US$B)
- Distribution of active and upcoming lithium mines
- Leading lithium producers in 2023 (kt)
- Leading lithium producing countries in 2030 (kt)
- Active and upcoming capacity of lithium reliant energy storage projects, 2018 - 2035
- Global BEV sales, 2018 - 2035
- Lithium production in 2022 by company
- Leading lithium mine owners by active and pipeline projects
- Global copper and production outlook, 2015 - 2030
- Production outlook for top 10 copper producing countries, 2015 - 2030
- Top three copper refining countries by market share in 2030
- Distribution of upcoming mines where copper is the primary commodity
- Development CAPEX spending within pipeline copper mines, 2024 - 2030
- Leading copper mine owners by active and pipeline projects
- Leading copper producers in 2023
- Cobalt production forecast, 2015 - 2030
- Demand for cobalt from clean energy and other uses, 2023 - 2040
- Production outlook for top 10 cobalt producing countries, 2015 - 2030
- Distribution of upcoming mines where cobalt is the primary commodity
- Leading cobalt producers in 2023
- Leading cobalt mine owners by active and pipeline projects
- Global nickel production forecast, 2015 - 2030
- Production outlook for top 10 nickel producing countries, 2015 - 2030
- Distribution of upcoming mines where nickel is the primary commodity
- Leading nickel producers in 2023
- Leading nickel mine owners by active and pipeline projects
- Platinum production and consumption, 2015 - 2030
- Leading countries by platinum production in 2030
- Platinum production in 2023
- Leading platinum mine owners by active and pipeline projects
- Global solar PV net additions, 2020 - 2035
- Demand for silicon from solar PV, 2020 - 2040
- Top silicon producing countries in 2024
- Global graphite production, 2015 - 2030
- Cleantech demand for graphite, 2021 - 2040
- Production outlook for top graphite producing coutnries, 2015 - 2035
- Top producers of battery grade supply graphite in 2030
- Leading graphite producers in 2022
- Leading graphite mine owners by active and pipeline projects
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- Albemarle Corp
- IGO Ltd
- Tianqi Lithium Corp
- Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA
- Firefinch Ltd
- Leo Lithium Ltd
- Ganfeng Lithium Group Co Ltd
- Arcadium Lithium Plc
- Liontown Resources Ltd
- Jemse SE
- Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp
- Eramet SA
- Wesfarmer Ltd
- Pilbara Minerals Ltd
- Mineral Resources Ltd
- Allkem Ltd
- Livent Corp
- Sayona Mining
- International Lithium Corp
- Lithium Chile Inc
- Woomera Mining Ltd
- Core Lithium Ltd
- Bradda Head Lithium Ltd
- European Energy Metals Corp
- Glencore Plc
- Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd
- Newmont Corp
- Freeport-McMoRan Inc
- Gecamines SA
- BHP Group Ltd
- Teck Resourcess Ltd
- Sandfire Resources Ltd
- Hindustan Copper Limited
- Corporacion Nacional de Cobre de Chile
- Anglo American Plc
- Antofagasta Plc
- CMOC Group Ltd
- China Minmetals Corp
- Barrick Gold Corp
- Boliden AB
- Compania De Minas Buenaventura SAA
- Centerra Gold Inc
- Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd
- Democratic Republic of Congo
- Bureau Veritas BIVAC BV
- Bohai Industrial Investment Fund Management Co
- Eurasian Resources Group Sarl
- Shalina Resources Ltd
- Geovic Mining Corp.
- National Investment Corporation of Cameroon
- Jinchuan Group Co Ltd
- Celsius Resources Ltd
- Vale SA
- Aston Minerals Ltd
- Clara Resources Australia Ltd
- Electra Battery Materials Corp
- Golden Mile Resources Ltd
- Nord Precious Metals Mining Inc
- White Cliff Minerals Ltd
- Tsingshan Holding Group Co Ltd
- Ningbo Lygend Mining Co Ltd
- PT Harita Group
- Nickel Asia Corp
- Sojitz Corp
- Pacific Metals Co Ltd
- Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd
- Undisclosed
- Mining Industry Indonesia
- BASF SE
- Huayou Cobalt Co.
- Ltd.
- Societe Des Mines de La Tontouta
- Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd
- NEW HORIZON INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD
- Hanwa Co Ltd
- Gem Hong Kong International Logistics Co.
- Ltd.
- Jingmen Gem Co.,Ltd.
- MMC Norilsk Nickel
- South32 Ltd
- First Quantum Minerals Ltd
- PT ANTAM (Persereo) Tbk
- Lundin Mining Corp
- Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd
- Boliden AB
- Wyloo Metals Pty Ltd
- Nickel Asia Corp
- Sibanye Stillwater Ltd
- Lesego Platinum Mining Limited
- African Rainbow Minerals Ltd
- Bakwena Ba-Mogopa
- Noble Metals Ltd
- Northam Platinum Ltd
- Gold Royalty Corp
- Sedibelo Resources Ltd
- Eastern Platinum Ltd
- Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc
- Graphite One Inc
- Zentek Ltd
- Black Rock Mining Ltd
- Talga Group Ltd
- Magnis Energy Technologies Ltd
- Syrah Resources Ltd
- Mason Resources Inc
- Metals Australia Ltd
- Establissements Gallois S.A
- Tamil Nadu Minerals Ltd
- Northern Graphite Corporation
- Mineral Commodities Ltd
- Tirupati Graphite Plc
- Choom Holdings Inc
- T.P. Minerals Pvt Ltd
- Hexagon Energy Materials Ltd
- Envion Group NL
- Bora Bora Resources Limited
- Triton Minerals Ltd
- Tirupati Graphite Plc
- Ceylon Graphite Corp.
