2024 Prediction of the Global Electric Car Growth Outlook

The Electric Vehicle Industry Will Suffer Growth Deceleration as OEMs Fight a Price War

This analysis provides an outlook for the electric vehicle (EV) industry based on the latest industry data, an outline of current trends, an in-depth examination of future developments, and a breakdown of the main stakeholders in the sector and their performance.

EV sales in 2023 amounted to a total of 14.1 million, of which 70.2% were battery EVs and 29.8% were plug-in hybrid EVs. Fuel-cell EV sales remained the same as in 2022, constituting less than 0.1% of the total EV sales. Global EV penetration increased from 13% in 2022 to 16% in 2022. Asia-Pacific (APAC) has the highest penetration globally, with 23% in the light-duty vehicle segment.

Crucial upcoming EV trends include the introduction of sodium-ion and solid-state batteries in mass-market EVs, gigacasting, falling EV prices, usage of AI, development of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) compatible vehicles, and opportunities in battery repair and replacement. Key OEMs have officially announced the adoption of alternate and advanced battery chemistries, such as sodium ion and solid-state batteries. EV manufacturers are exploring the gigacasting space, considering their affordable EV strategy; however, adoption is not widespread yet.

Due to the discontinuation of incentives, OEMs are forced to lower EV prices to keep up with demand and compete with conventional vehicles. Most markets have either reduced or discontinued cash incentives on EVs. Battery management systems (BMS) and analytics, EV battery second life, and testing and validation will leverage AI and digitization. The development of V2G-compatible vehicles spearheads technological progress and is a priority because next-generation charging infrastructure will demand V2G-compatible vehicles.

EV sales will reach an estimated 18.5 million units globally with a 31.1% year-over-year growth. The pace of this growth will decelerate due to the revision of incentives, mainly in Europe. Charging point installations will surpass 5.2 million by the end of the year, with an estimated ratio of one charging connector for 12 EVs. The global EV penetration will reach 20% penetration in the light-duty vehicle segment, a milestone for the industry. BYD will retain the leadership with a higher margin than in 2023 as it expands its presence in Europe and emerging Asian markets (Japan, India, and Thailand). The battery market will supply approximately 945,000 megawatts/hour of battery capacity and, in this market, CATL will remain the leader, followed by BYD.