Hydrocarbon Market - Forecasts from 2024 to 2029

The global hydrocarbon market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% during the period 2024 and 2029.

Hydrocarbon is a compound that consists of carbon and hydrogen present in liquids, gas, and solid forms, namely crude oil, natural gas, and coal respectively. These are used in gasoline, jet fuel, propane, diesel, and kerosene. They are known to increase the octane rating or cetane number of fuels to provide improved combustion and reduce emissions. There are two categories of hydrocarbon aliphatic and aromatic. There is a subdivision for aliphatic which are alkane, alkene, and alkyne. On the other hand, aromatic hydrocarbons are benzene, and they are used in the production of plastics, rubber, resins, synthetic fibers, and dyes.

Many hydrocarbons are found in nature. Along with its use in fossil fuels, they are found in trees and plants in the form of pigments known as carotenes. More than 98% of the natural crude rubber is hydrocarbon polymer which has many units linked like chains together. The chemistry and structure of individual hydrocarbons depend on the atoms that are linked together.

GLOBAL HYDROCARBON MARKET DRIVERS:

Hydrocarbons, mainly crude oil and natural gas are the primary sources of energy used for electricity generation. Despite the presence of various renewable energy sources, hydrocarbons continue to serve as indispensable resources for meeting the global energy demand. From 2020 to 2021, as stated by the Government of the United Kingdom total energy consumption in the nation increased by 4.6% to 134 million tonnes of oil equivalent.  

Apart from this, the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organisation (NEDO), which is a government body that finances R&D, has been designed to improve the correlation between larger R&D expenditures and further revenues in Japan. Under this new procedure developed by NEDO, organizations are asked to declare how they will develop or discover things in their proposed R&D work to qualify for the funds.

Product innovation and government-related factors have emerged as key drivers that influence industry growth in the hydrocarbon sector. Advancements in technology in extraction methods and refinements create new ways to extract and produce higher volumes at a lower cost ultimately creating new applications and expanding the market. In July 2023, the Guyana Environmental Protection Agency approved the U.S.-based oil giant ExxonMobil to proceed with 35 well exploration and appraisal drilling on the Stabroek block offshore Guyana. It also enables the oil company to seek out and update new and future prospective developable projects to support the block reservoirs in addition to providing an estimate of recoverable hydrocarbons.

Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia also has started investing more heavily in cleaner conventional combustion, CCUS, hydrogen, and renewables. Meanwhile, the government of India through the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) invested in the E&P sector amounting to US$58 billion of the country’s total investment in 2020. This has further supported policy changes such as HELP and OALP, which will enhance India’s net geographical area that is being explored from 8% (0.25 million sq. km.) in 2020 to 15% (0.5 million sq. km.) by 2025.

Comprehensively, stringent environmental regulations push the adoption of cleaner technology and the development of various alternative fuels which impact the industry. Altogether, these driving factors are leading the hydrocarbon industry towards a brighter, more diverse future for energy resources.

GLOBAL HYDROCARBON MARKET SEGMENT ANALYSIS:

By type, the aliphatic segment is anticipated to be the fastest-growing segment.

Aliphatic hydrocarbons, like other hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide, play essential roles in a range of crucial chemical reactions. They react with hydroxyl radicals, altering the atmospheric equilibrium of reactive radicals. This oxidation process produces several significant secondary photooxidants, the most important of which is ozone.

Most aliphatic compounds burn easily as fuel and some of the hydrocarbons belonging to the class are utilized in Bunsen burners, LNG, and ethylene used in welding. According to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell, in March 2022, total LPG consumption increased by 9.6%, with a cumulative growth of 2.5% for FY 2021-22. In March 2023, the Northern area had the biggest share of total PSU LPG sales (31.2%), followed by the Southern region (28.1%), Western region (22.3%), Eastern region (15.7%), and North-Eastern region (2.7%). Conclusively, aliphatic hydrocarbons, particularly propane, and butane, which make up LPG, are important in clean and efficient energy solutions in heating, cooking, and industrial processes. The broad use in various industries proves that aliphatic hydrocarbons meet the energy needs of different industries, and further, show that the conservation of energy resources in the form of aliphatic hydrocarbons and the protection of the environment is a crucial aspect of the energy industry.

The growing application of hydrocarbon in the petrochemical industry.

Hydrocarbons are becoming the most essential feedstock in the manufacturing of a wide range of chemical products in the petrochemical industry. Crude oil and natural gas provide the feedstock for a large number of different petrochemical products including plastics, polymers, solvents, fertilizers, and man-made fibers. Furthermore, higher demand for petroleum-based products has a positive impact in focusing on the usage of hydrocarbons. In 2022, the total petroleum consumption in the United States increased by around 2% in 2022 compared to 2021 and 12% compared to 2020.

In addition to this, in 2022, the United States produced around 18.7 billion gallons of biofuels, of which approximately 17.6 billion gallons were used. The United States was a net exporter of around 1.0 billion gallons of biofuels in 2022. Also, the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) is working with industry to create next-generation biofuels using waste, cellulosic biomass, and algae-based resources. BETO focuses on producing hydrocarbon biofuels, sometimes known as "drop-in" fuels, which may be used to replace petroleum in existing refineries, tanks, pipelines, pumps, automobiles, and smaller engines.

Further, DOE EERE plans to increase its investment to $120 million to promote the scaling up of biotechnology and biomanufacturing, which will lead to the commercialization of biorefineries. These biorefineries will develop chemicals and fuels with minimum emissions of greenhouse gases, thus decreasing the impacts on various industries.

Owing to factors such as increased population, and growth in urban and industrial areas across the globe, the demand for petrochemicals has risen and so the utilization of hydrocarbons in the petrochemical sector is expected to continue to progress, creating additional demand for investment, research and development, and market development.

The Asia Pacific hydrocarbon market is anticipated to grow significantly.

The hydrocarbon market is expected to grow strongly in the Asia Pacific region due to rapid industrialization, urbanization, and economic development in countries such as China, India, and Southeast Asia. These nations are driving up energy consumption and demand for hydrocarbon-based goods. As per the EIA, China’s annual average of crude oil processing or refinery runs was 14. 8 million barrels per day in 2023. Moreover, in recent years, expansion has been associated with petrochemical projects, raising the output of petrochemical raw materials, including naphtha and LPG (propane and butane).

As stated by the Director General of Hydrocarbons in 2021, India's energy and power (E&P) industry is focusing on persevering through transitional times and concentrating on greening its hydrocarbon operations and increasing technical efficiency. Energy is presently provided by India's upstream industry, which also finances the country's future energy transformation. Consequently, the country’s fundamental plan is to increase domestic production and exploration property while maintaining a stable budget and an environment that is open for investment.

Offshore areas for the Indian energy and power (E&P) industry remain one of the vastest prospects, accounting for 51% of the sedimentary basin of India in 2021. The Government of India is further considering specific initiatives and joint ventures to speed up the exploration of India's offshore regions. In the meantime, the government has accepted the Discovered Small Fields (DSF) III and Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) VII bid rounds and the offing of acreages has advanced. The development of unconventional hydrocarbon resources is receiving fresh momentum with the opening of the special CBM bid round.

As Asia-Pacific develops as a vital center for manufacturing and industrial activity, demand for hydrocarbons as fuels, feedstocks, and raw materials is expected to rise, establishing the area as a major contributor to global hydrocarbon market growth in the years ahead.

Global Hydrocarbon Market Key Developments:

• In March 2024, the hydrocarbon vertical of L&T secured an order from the Oil & Natural Gas Corporation for the MHN TCPP PGC BGC Projects, known as MTPBP. LTEH, organized into Offshore, Onshore EPC, Modular Fabrication, Advanced Value Engineering & Technology (AdVENT), and Offshore Wind Farm Business Groups, provides complete design-to-build solutions across the hydrocarbon industry to local and international customers.
• In February 2024, Kraton Corporation, a leading global sustainable producer of specialty polymers and high-value biobased products derived from pine wood pulping co-products, announced the launch of SYLVASOLV, a new line of biobased hydrocarbon oils designed to deliver superior performance and environmental advantages across many industries, including agrochemicals.

The global hydrocarbon market is segmented and analyzed as follows:

By Type

• Aliphatic
• Aromatic

By Application

• Petrochemical
• Energy
• Chemical
• Automotive
• Construction
• Others

By Geography

• North America
• United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• South America
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Rest of South America
• Europe
• United Kingdom
• Germany
• France
• Italy
• Spain
• Rest of Europe
• Middle East and Africa
• Saudi Arabia
• United Arab Emirates
• Rest of Middle East and Africa
• Asia-Pacific
• China
• India
• Japan
• South Korea
• Taiwan
• Thailand
• Indonesia
• Rest of Asia-Pacific