India Online Retail Forecast 2023-28

India Online Retail Forecast 2023-28 (11 Categories and Market Share) With Deep Dive on Quick Commerce and Festive Sales

The online retail in India is expected to grow at CAGR 19.6% from 2023-28 to reach $172.1 billion. The market is driven by growth in online grocery especially quick commerce, smartphone and fashion categories. Slowing overall market growth rate is a key concern among online retailers due to the issue of limited disposable income of large population in India.

Emergence of Quick Commerce

Powered by the growing adoption of 15-minute delivery option for grocery delivery quick commerce is expected to reach $6.9 billion by 2025 accounting for 50% of online grocery sales. Blinkit remains the largest player with 40% market share in 2023 followed by Swiggy Instamart and Zepto.

Mobile accounts for 82.3% of online retail sales in 2023

Smartphone is the preferred device for online shoppers in India accounting for 82.3% of total online retail sales. Mobile commerce (m-commerce) in India has witnessed continuous growth in recent years, driven by factors such as the widespread adoption of smartphones, increasing internet penetration, and government initiatives promoting digital payments.

Flipkart Leads in Market Share Followed by Amazon

Flipkart's strong presence in the online smartphone and fashion categories make it the leading player in online retail with 32.4% market share followed by Amazon at 24.3% in 2023. However, Flipkart is facing competition in the fashion category from Meesho on the affordable pricing segment and Ajio in premium fashion category. Apart from this the emergence of quick commerce will also challenge the existing players during the coming festive season in 2024 where customers will have more options this time to purchase pre planned items for which they need quick delivery.

Report Coverage

India Online Retail Forecast offers comprehensive view of online retail market in India.

The forecast details online and offline growth for 11 product categories in South Korea along with sizing of mobile commerce and live commerce market.

The report provides historic and forecast data from 2009-23 for 11 categories in retail and online retail to understand the retail market in India.

Retail market in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.8% between 2023-28 to reach $171.2 billion in 2028 from $69.9 billion in 2023. Online retail grew 22.7% to reach $69.9 billion in 2023 accounting for 8.4% of total retail sales.

Scope of the Report

• Total population - Historic and forecast data from 2009-23
• Online population - Historic and forecast data from 2009-23
• Online buyers - Historic and forecast data from 2009-23
  • Online buyer for 11 categories
• Categories covered
  • Computer hardware and software
  • Consumer electronics
  • Mobile
  • Personal Care
  • Media (books, music, and videos)
  • Clothing
  • Footwear, Luggage and Accessories
  • Homeware and furniture
  • Toys
  • Grocery
  • Appliances (personal and home)
• Total retail sales - Breakdown by 11 categories
• Online retail sales - Breakdown by 11 categories
• Online retail sales via mobile
  • Category wise breakdown of retail sales via mobile
• Online retail market share

Deliverables

• Executive summary report of key findings (52 Slides)
• Excel sheet with historic and forecast data
• Unlimited queries with analyst
• Analyst presentation customized for your team

Key Definitions

• Retail Sales. Retail involves selling consumer goods, excluding travel, cars, prescription drugs, restaurant sales, and gasoline sales.
• Online Retail Sales. Online retail refers to the process of purchasing goods and services through the Internet, where customers make financial commitments, typically via credit cards or other digital payment methods. This definition includes transactions made on mobile devices, web-enabled kiosks, and point-of-sale systems, with delivery options either at home or in-store. In-store pickup, where the purchase and payment are completed online, is also considered an online sale within the context of online retail.
• Online Buyers. Online buyers are defined as people who have completed at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.
• Online Retail Sales Via Mobile. Online retail sales by mobile refer to purchases made through mobile devices, such as smartphones and tablets, where customers browse, select, and pay for products or services via mobile applications or mobile-optimized websites.

Category Definitions

• Computer Hardware and Software.
  • Computer Hardware. includes desktop computers, laptops, netbooks, and tablet PCs, but also a wide variety of peripheral devices such as keyboards, monitors, printers, cartridges, computer cables, and parts.
  • Software. Includes software packages such as operating systems, anti-virus software, languages, video game software. Includes digital downloads
• Consumer Electronics
  • Mobile. Smartphones and featurephones
  • Video. including TVs, home entertainment systems, DVD players, and recorders, game consoles, static audio (such as hi-fi systems, CD players, and turntables), portable audio, car audio, and home communications equipment (such as telephones and other terminal equipment).
  • Wearables. AR VR devices, smart glasses, smart rings etc.
• Personal Care
  • Includes toiletries such as shaving cream, razors, oral care products, bath and shower gel, deodorants, baby and childcare products, depilatories, and sanitary products. This category also encompasses Haircare products like shampoo, colorants, mousses, etc., as well as Fragrances such as perfumes, aftershave, and scented oils. Color Cosmetics like lip- and eyeliners, powders, foundations, nail polish, mascaras, and lipstick are also included in this segment.
• Media (books, music, and videos)
  • Books. Hardback and paperback books, audiobooks, eBooks, and magazines.
  • Stationary
  • CDs, digital downloads, streaming services, VHS, and DVDs. Includes digital downloads.
• Clothing
  • All clothing, including men's, women's, kids', and teens'. Includes sportswear
• Footwear, Luggage, Jewellery and Accessories
  • Footwear. Includes athletic, leather, non-rubber. Includes men's, women's, kids', and teens'.
  • Jewellery. Fine jewelry, imitation jewelry, watches.
  • Luggage
• Appliances (personal and home)
  • Small Appliances. Kitchen electrical (blenders, toasters, and food processors), home environment (humidifiers, dehumidifiers, air purifiers), floor care (vacuums), dinnerware, beverageware, cookware, bakeware, cutlery, flatware, linens, draperies, and window dressings
  • Big household appliances (or white goods) such as refrigerators, ovens, and vacuum cleaners, television
  • Personal appliances. Includes hair care appliances, body shavers, electric facial cleansers, oral care appliances and other personal care appliances.
• Homeware and furniture
  • Household furniture and décor such as textiles such as curtains, carpets, and cushions.
  • Homeware. Plasticware; glassware; dinnerware, ceramics; porcelain; cutlery; metalware; and woodware.
  • Outdoor. BBQ's, garden sheds and outdoor furniture
  • Lighting sources and light fixtures
• Toys
  • Traditional toys, not including video games.
• Grocery
  • Food and beverage sales, including canned goods, produce, etc. Does not include restaurant sales.