US Online Retail Forecast 2023-28

US Online Retail Forecast 2023-28 (24 Categories and Market Share)

US online retail sales to reach $1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 27.7% of total US retail sales. High growth categories during the forecast period include OTC drugs, tools and home improvement, beauty and cosmetics, pets and garden supplies.

Online Grocery to Reach $266.5 Billion by 2028

Online grocery got a boost due to COVID-19 and expected to continue the growth although at a moderate rate. We expect the share of online in grocery sales to reach to 19% in 2028 from 14.4% in 2023 driven by the increase in average ticket size of online grocery buyer and the addition of new buyers for online grocery during the forecast period.

Mobile Accounts for 43.6% of Online Retail Sales

Online retail sales via mobile are still far behind in the US as compared to the Asia Pacific countries. We expect share of mobile to grow due to the adoption of online grocery and the emergence of TIkTok and Temu as key source of discovery and research of products for Gen Z.

Amazon Leads in Market Share; Emergence of Temu

Amazon leads with 38.1% market share followed by Walmart at 6.7% in 2023. However, the share of customers researching for products on Amazon is declining and Temu is emerging as the third option of product research and discovery especially in the Gen Z generation.

Report Coverage

US Online Retail Forecast offers comprehensive view of online retail market in the US.

The forecast details online and offline growth for 24 product categories in South Korea along with sizing of mobile commerce and live commerce market.

The report provides historic and forecast data from 2009-23 for 24 categories in retail and online retail to understand the retail market in the US.

Retail market in the US is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.4% between 2023-28 to reach $5.9 trillion in 2028 from $4.9 trillion in 2023. Online retail grew 9.0% to reach $1.1 trillion in 2023 accounting for 22.2% of total retail sales.

Scope of the Report

• Total population - Historic and forecast data from 2009-23
• Online population - Historic and forecast data from 2009-23
• Online buyers - Historic and forecast data from 2009-23
  • Online buyer for 24 categories
• Categories covered
  • Computer hardware & peripherals
  • Consumer Electronics
  • Consumer Books
  • Music
  • Movie tickets
  • Event tickets
  • Over-the-counter drugs
  • Beauty and cosmetics
  • Clothing
  • Footwear
  • Jewelry and watches
  • Food and drink
  • Pets
  • Toys
  • Video games
  • Sports equipment
  • Flowers
  • Furniture
  • Large appliances
  • Personal and small appliances
  • Tools and home improvement
  • Garden supplies
  • Office products
  • Car parts
• Total retail sales - Breakdown by 24 categories
• Online retail sales - Breakdown by 24 categories
• Online retail sales via mobile
  • Category wise breakdown of retail sales via mobile
• Online retail market share
• eCommerce revenue for key retailers

Deliverables

• Executive summary report of key findings (60 Slides)
• Excel sheet with historic and forecast data
• Unlimited queries with analyst
• Analyst presentation customized for your team

Key Definitions

• Retail Sales. Retail involves selling consumer goods, excluding travel, cars, prescription drugs, restaurant sales, and gasoline sales.
• Online Retail Sales. Online retail refers to the process of purchasing goods and services through the Internet, where customers make financial commitments, typically via credit cards or other digital payment methods. This definition includes transactions made on mobile devices, web-enabled kiosks, and point-of-sale systems, with delivery options either at home or in-store. In-store pickup, where the purchase and payment are completed online, is also considered an online sale within the context of online retail.
• Online Buyers. Online buyers are defined as people who have completed at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.
• Online Retail Sales Via Mobile. Online retail sales by mobile refer to purchases made through mobile devices, such as smartphones and tablets, where customers browse, select, and pay for products or services via mobile applications or mobile-optimized websites.

Category Definitions

• Computer Hardware and Software.
  • Computer Hardware. includes desktop computers, laptops, netbooks, and tablet PCs, but also a wide variety of peripheral devices such as keyboards, monitors, printers, cartridges, computer cables, and parts.
  • Software. Includes software packages such as operating systems, anti-virus software, languages, video game software. Includes digital downloads
• Consumer Electronics
  • Mobile. Smartphones and featurephones
  • Video. including TVs, home entertainment systems, DVD players, and recorders, game consoles, static audio (such as hi-fi systems, CD players, and turntables), portable audio, car audio, and home communications equipment (such as telephones and other terminal equipment).
  • Wearables. AR VR devices, smart glasses, smart rings etc.
• Beauty and Cosmetics
  • Includes toiletries such as shaving cream, razors, oral care products, bath and shower gel, deodorants, baby and childcare products, depilatories, and sanitary products. This category also encompasses Haircare products like shampoo, colorants, mousses, etc., as well as Fragrances such as perfumes, aftershave, and scented oils. Color Cosmetics like lip- and eyeliners, powders, foundations, nail polish, mascaras, and lipstick are also included in this segment.
• Consumer Books
  • Books. Hardback and paperback books, audiobooks, eBooks, and magazines.
  • This category excludes academic and educational books, encompassing both fiction and nonfiction works available through various retail channels, including physical stores and online platforms.
• Music
  • CDs, digital downloads, and streaming services.
• Movie Tickets
  • Movie tickets (box office).
• Event Tickets
  • Tickets to sporting events, theater, music concerts, and other performing art shows.
• Over-the-counter drugs
  • Non-prescription drugs, including medication for colds/coughs, acne, antacids, pain relief, itch relief, etc.
• Clothing
  • All clothing, including men's, women's, kids', and teens'. Includes sportswear
• Footwear
  • Footwear. Includes athletic, leather, non-rubber. Includes men's, women's, kids', and teens'.
• Jewellery
  • Fine jewellery, imitation jewellery, watches.
• Food and Drink
  • Food and beverage sales, including canned goods, produce, etc. Does not include restaurant sales.
• Pets
  • Pet food, supplies, and over-the-counter medicine. Does not include live animal sales or vet services.
• Video Games
  • Video game software, digital (PC downloads and mobile) and physical products, and online games.
• Sports and entertainment goods
  • All sporting goods equipment, including sporting products and fitness equipment. Does not include apparel and footwear.
• Flowers
  • Floral sales, vases.
• Large Appliances
  • White goods such as refrigerators, washing machines, dishwashers, stoves, etc.
• Personal and small appliances
  • Kitchen electricals, personal grooming, home environment (humidifiers, dehumidifiers, air purifiers, fans), floor care (vacuums)
• Furniture and home Furnishing
  • Household furniture; textiles such as curtains, carpets, and cushions; plasticware; glassware; dinnerware, ceramics; porcelain; cutlery; metalware; and woodware.,
  • Lighting sources and light fixtures
• Toys
  • Traditional toys, not including video games.
• Tool and home improvement
  • Lumber, tools, nuts and bolts, equipment. Does not include gardening equipment.
• Garden supplies
  • Lawn and garden sales, including seeds, gardening equipment, plants.
• Office products
  • Office furniture, books, binders, paper, stationery, projectors.
• Car parts
  • Aftermarket auto parts, tires, etc.
• Others
  • Online pharma, video and DVDs, nutraceuticals, medical supplies, household goods. wine, luggage, baby gear, party supplies, arts and crafts, cigarettes, gifts, cards, costumes and masks, umbrellas, photos, bulbs, etc.