China Online Retail Forecast 2023-28

China Online Retail Forecast 2023-28 (24 Categories and Market Share) with a Deep Dive on Social Commerce and Live Streaming Commerce

Online retail in China is expected to grow at CAGR 8.7% from 2023-28 to reach $2.9 Trillion

China surpassed the $1 Trillion mark in online retail sales 2018 and expected to cross the $2 trillion mark on 2024. The analyst expects the market to touch the $3 trillion mark by 2030. The online retail market grew by 8.8% in 2023 and expected to follow a similar growth rate during the forecast period.

Social commerce accounted for 45% of total online retail sales in 2023

Social commerce powered by players like Pinduoduo is increasing taking a bigger pie in the online retail market accounting for 45% of total online retail sales in 2023. The analyst expects it to cross 50% in 2025. Within social commerce live streaming commerce accounted for 50% of the sales and expected to be the key driver of future growth.

Alibaba Leads in Market Share; Pinduoduo Becomes the 2nd Largest Player Replacing JD.com

Alibaba through Taobao and Tmall accounts for 40% of online retail sales market. Powered by aggressive growth of social commerce Pinduoduo became the 2nd largest player in 2023 with a Gross merchandise value of $597 billion.

Report Coverage

China Online Retail Forecast offers comprehensive view of online retail market in China.

The forecast details online and offline growth for 16 product categories in China along with sizing of mobile commerce and live commerce market.

The report provides historic and forecast data from 2009-23 for 16 categories in retail and online retail to understand the retail market in China.

Retail market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.7% between 2023-28 to reach $2.9 trillion in 2028 from $1.9 trillion in 2023. Online retail grew 8.8% to reach $1.9 trillion in 2023 accounting for 37.7% of total retail sales.

Scope of the Report

• Total population - Historic and forecast data from 2009-23
• Online population - Historic and forecast data from 2009-23
• Online buyers - Historic and forecast data from 2009-23
  • Online buyer for 16 categories
• Categories covered
  • Computer hardware and software
  • Consumer electronics
  • Personal Care
  • Books
  • Music and video
  • Clothing
  • Footwear
  • Appliances (personal and home)
  • Homeware and furniture
  • Toys
  • Grocery
  • Movie tickets
  • Event Tickets
  • OTC
  • Pets
• Personal Luxury Goods
• Total retail sales - Breakdown by 16 categories
• Online retail sales - Breakdown by 16 categories
• Deep Dive Into Social commerce
• Deep Dive into Live Streaming Commerce
• Online retail sales via mobile
• Online retail sales - B2C vs C2C
• Online retail market share

Deliverables

• Executive summary report of key findings (70 Slides)
• Excel sheet with historic and forecast data
• Unlimited queries with analyst
• Analyst presentation customized for your team

Key Definitions

Retail Sales. Retail involves selling consumer goods, excluding travel, cars, prescription drugs, restaurant sales, and gasoline sales.

Online Retail Sales. Online retail refers to the process of purchasing goods and services through the Internet, where customers make financial commitments, typically via credit cards or other digital payment methods. This definition includes transactions made on mobile devices, web-enabled kiosks, and point-of-sale systems, with delivery options either at home or in-store. In-store pickup, where the purchase and payment are completed online, is also considered an online sale within the context of online retail.

Online Buyers. Online buyers are defined as people who have completed at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Online Retail Sales Via Mobile. Online retail sales by mobile refer to purchases made through mobile devices, such as smartphones and tablets, where customers browse, select, and pay for products or services via mobile applications or mobile-optimized websites.

Category Definitions

• Computer Hardware and Software.
  • Computer Hardware. includes desktop computers, laptops, netbooks, and tablet PCs, but also a wide variety of peripheral devices such as keyboards, monitors, printers, cartridges, computer cables, and parts.
  • Software. Includes software packages such as operating systems, anti-virus software, languages, video game software. Includes digital downloads
• Consumer Electronics
  • Mobile. Smartphones and featurephones
  • Video. including TVs, home entertainment systems, DVD players, and recorders, game consoles, static audio (such as hi-fi systems, CD players, and turntables), portable audio, car audio, and home communications equipment (such as telephones and other terminal equipment).
  • Wearables. AR VR devices, smart glasses, smart rings etc.
• Personal Care
  • Includes toiletries such as shaving cream, razors, oral care products, bath and shower gel, deodorants, baby and childcare products, depilatories, and sanitary products. This category also encompasses Haircare products like shampoo, colorants, mousses, etc., as well as Fragrances such as perfumes, aftershave, and scented oils. Color Cosmetics like lip- and eyeliners, powders, foundations, nail polish, mascaras, and lipstick are also included in this segment.
• Books and stationery
  • Books. Hardback and paperback books, audiobooks, eBooks, and magazines.
  • Stationary
• Music and Video
  • CDs, digital downloads, streaming services, VHS, and DVDs. Includes digital downloads.
• Clothing
  • All clothing, including men's, women's, kids', and teens'. Includes sportswear
• Footwear, Luggage, Jewellery and Accessories
  • Footwear. Includes athletic, leather, non-rubber. Includes men's, women's, kids', and teens'.
  • Jewellery. Fine jewelry, imitation jewelry, watches.
  • Luggage
• Appliances (personal and home)
  • Small Appliances. Kitchen electrical (blenders, toasters, and food processors), home environment (humidifiers, dehumidifiers, air purifiers), floor care (vacuums), dinnerware, beverageware, cookware, bakeware, cutlery, flatware, linens, draperies, and window dressings
  • Big household appliances (or white goods) such as refrigerators, ovens, and vacuum cleaners, television
  • Personal appliances. Includes hair care appliances, body shavers, electric facial cleansers, oral care appliances and other personal care appliances.
• Homeware and furniture
  • Household furniture and décor such as textiles such as curtains, carpets, and cushions.
  • Homeware. Plasticware; glassware; dinnerware, ceramics; porcelain; cutlery; metalware; and woodware.
  • Outdoor. BBQ's, garden sheds and outdoor furniture
  • Lighting sources and light fixtures
• Toys
  • Traditional toys, not including video games.
• Grocery
  • Food and beverage sales, including canned goods, produce, etc. Does not include restaurant sales.
• Movie Tickets
  • Movie tickets (box office)
• Event Tickets
• Pets
  • Pet food, supplies, and over-the-counter medicine. Does not include live animal sales or vet services.
• Sports and entertainment goods
  • All sporting goods equipment, including sporting products and fitness equipment. Does not include apparel and footwear.
• Personal Luxury Goods
  • Luxury apparel, leather goods, footwear, Jewellery, watches, cosmetics and accessories.