Germany Elevators & Escalators Market - Size & Growth Forecast 2024-2029

EIB Investments in Various Projects and Aging Population to Boost the Demand for New Installations in the Germany Elevator and Escalator Market

• In March 2024, the EIB collaborated with NRW.BANK assists the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia in housing refugees. Through a €200 million ($217.4 million) framework loan, the EIB will finance the construction, refurbishment, and extension of residential buildings to accommodate refugees across North Rhine-Westphalia. This funding will be provided to local authorities in the state through NRW.BANK's refugee program offers loans with favorable terms.
• The share of the aging population (65+ years) was 21.8% in 2020. It is expected to increase to 25.4% of the total population in 2030 and 28.0% in 2050. This may generate increased demand for hospitals and elderly care infrastructure, which also puts further pressure on the labor supply in the construction sector. With the increased demand for hospitals and elderly care infrastructure, feasible accessibility is necessary, which further propels the Germany elevator and escalator market in the medical sector.
• Socio-economic and political developments have influenced Germany's housing construction history since 1948. Post-war, significant efforts were made to rebuild infrastructure and provide housing for displaced populations. From 1949 to 1978, construction surged, reaching 17,275 units. From 1978 to 1990, construction decreased, and from 1991 to 2010, it grew moderately, reaching 6,736 units. Since 2011, construction has declined significantly, with only 1,250 units built. These trends guide policymakers and urban planners in addressing current and future housing needs.

Transformation to Digitization and Increase Demand for Energy-Efficient Elevators and Escalators to Boost Demand for Elevators

• As of 2023, more than half of German companies reported experiencing hacker attacks within the past year, emphasizing the urgency of addressing cybersecurity in all sectors, including elevators. TÜV Rheinland recommends regular inspections to identify and mitigate potential vulnerabilities, ensuring the safety and reliability of elevator systems. The rise of AI in the Germany elevator and escalator market is another transformative force. AI-powered systems can enhance predictive maintenance by analyzing data from various sensors to anticipate potential issues before they become critical. This proactive approach can significantly reduce downtime and maintenance costs, ensuring elevators operate smoothly and efficiently. AI can also optimize elevator traffic management in high-rise buildings, improving wait times and energy efficiency.
• Data from the European Building Stock Observatory indicates a gradual decrease in emissions from Scope 1 and Scope 2 sources over time, comparing the timeline of 1990-2021. This trend suggests potential enhancements in energy efficiency or a transition to cleaner energy sources, which would also affect elevator operation, necessitating energy-efficient practices. Nevertheless, elevators remain a crucial factor in emission reduction efforts for residential buildings. There are opportunities for further efficiency improvements and the adoption of sustainable technologies to alleviate their environmental footprint. Furthermore, ongoing maintenance and modernization initiatives in the Germany elevator and escalator market can contribute to achieving emission reduction targets by ensuring optimal energy performance and equipment longevity.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• In the first half of 2023, new construction in Germany experienced a significant decline, with a 47% drop in new building starts compared to the average of the past two years. Home building saw an even steeper decrease of 54%. This reflects the challenging conditions facing the real estate sector, marked by caution in project development and a sharp downturn in transactions and prices.
• The industry is seeking multi-billion-euro support from the government, highlighting the severity of the situation. The city of Frankfurt, known for its skyline, is also impacted, with delays in construction projects as developers hope for cost reductions. The volume of property under development has decreased, particularly in larger cities, with residential and hotel development seeing significant declines. Financing challenges have further hindered projects, leading to a slow real estate investment market slowdown.
• Based on KONE elevator start data for 2023, the German elevator market will show recovery post-COVID-19, evident in elevator journey data from Berlin, Hamburg, and Munich. While urban areas saw a 70-71% recovery in elevator starts, hotel-related usage varied. Berlin's 90% recovery suggests robust hospitality activity, while Hamburg's 114% indicates thriving tourism. Munich's 83% suggests slower growth. Overall, the market's positive trajectory highlights rebounding urban activity, especially in hospitality, with continued monitoring crucial for industry insights.
• TÜV Rheinland reported safety issues in about half of Germany's elevators in 2021, with 3,000 units shut down due to dangerous defects in 2022. Berlin had a quarter of elevators without errors, while Munich performed better. Since 2015, stricter regulations under the Industrial Safety Ordinance have mandated essential modernizations for elevator operators. In December 2021, 4,500 lifts were found to have "dangerous defects" during legally required safety inspections.

Elevator Market Segmentation by

• Machine Type
• Hydraulic and Pneumatic
• Machine Room Traction
• Machine Room Less Traction
• Others
• Climbing
• Elevators
• Industrial Elevators
• Carriage Type
• Passenger
• Freight
• Capacity
• 2-15 Persons
• 16-24 Persons
• 25-33 Persons
• 34 Persons and Above
• End-User
• Commercial
• Residential
• Industrial
• Others
• Public Transit
• Institutional
• Infrastructural
• Escalator Market Segmentation by
• Product Type
• Parallel
• Multi Parallel
• Walkway
• Crisscross
• End-User
• Public Transit
• Commercial
• Others
• Institutional Sector
• Infrastructure
• Industrial

MARKET DRIVERS

• Germany's aging population propels the growth of the Germany elevator and escalator market in residential, hospitals, and elderly care facilities.
• The EIB's investments in various sectors indirectly support the elevator industry by stimulating construction projects and promoting modernization and digitalization, creating opportunities for elevator manufacturers.

INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES

• The Germany elevator and escalator market is transforming with digitization and AI, but cybersecurity concerns have emerged. Government initiatives support efficiency but require safeguards.
• The construction industry focuses on energy efficiency, with government initiatives targeting emission reduction. Elevators contribute to emissions in building construction, highlighting the need for sustainable technologies.

MARKET RESTRAINTS

• In 2024, the German construction sector will face heightened costs, a labor shortage, and reduced demand, worsened by fluctuating interest rates and geopolitical tensions.
• Rising expenses and sluggish growth will challenge the German construction market in 2023, affecting elevator and escalator manufacturers. Factors such as increased material costs, disruptions in the supply chain, and geopolitical pressures will exacerbate the situation, leading to project delays and decreased demand for construction projects and equipment.

VENDOR LANDSCAPE

• The key players in the Germany elevator and escalator market are KONE, Otis, Mitsubishi Electric, Schindler, Fujitec, Schmitt Sohn Aufzüge TK Elevator, and Köhler.
• The top four prominent German elevator and escalator vendors, KONE, Otis, TKE, and Schindler, account for 49% of the market share.

Key Vendors

• KONE
• Mitsubishi Electric
• TK Elevator
• Otis
• Fujitec
• Schindler
• KÖHLER Elevator GmbH
• Schmitt+Sohn Aufzuge

Other Prominent Vendors

• Stannah Lifts Holdings Ltd.
• Cibes Lift Group
• Toshiba Elevator and Building Systems Corporation
• KLEEMANN
• HIRO LIFT
• Orona Elevators
• AKE ELEVATOR
• Lifton Home Elevators
• Brobeil Aufzüge GmbH & Co. KG
• Lift Reith GmbH & Co. KG
• Lutz Aufzüge
• Vestner Aufzüge GmbH

KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED: