The Fertiliser and Nitrogen Compounds Industry in South Africa 2024

South Africa’s fertiliser and nitrogen compounds industry was declared an essential industry during the pandemic and has benefitted from four agricultural boom years that saw increased demand for its products. Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine led to a spike in international prices, boosting industry revenue, but also resulting in supply chain disruptions and rising costs. The industry depends on imports and is thoroughly exposed to global dynamics.

While prices dropped rapidly late in 2023 and in 2024, costs and interest rates have not. Indications are that agricultural growth may slow. The industry is well developed and resilient, and is working at opportunities for sustainable ammonia production. New phosphate rock mining investments hold promise for further local phosphorous fertiliser production.

Opportunities

Efficiency enhanced fertilisers and biostimulants as important sources of yield improvements for agriculture. New phosphate rock mining investments may lead to increased localisation of phosphorous fertiliser supply. Population growth drives food security imperatives, contributing to demand for fertilisers. The policy priority of small-scale farming creates government-supported demand for fertilisers. The strong performance of the agriculture industry.

Challenges

Deteriorating rail and road infrastructure, and electricity and municipal water supply. Foskor’s long-term under-performance has left the Southern African region dependent on imported phosphate products. Intensifying margin pressure as producer prices drop while costs of production have remained high. South Africa’s dependence on imports of inputs and final fertiliser products leaves it exposed to international price and supply volatility.

Trends

Drier agricultural seasons, particularly from late 2023, may affect trends over the next few years. Foskor’s recovery has resulted in an improvement in the domestic supply of granular phosphate fertilisers. Higher producer prices. Industry growth on the back of strong agricultural growth the past four years.

Outlook

Lower prices, high costs, supply chain volatility, and indications that domestic agricultural growth is slowing, are intensifying margin pressure, and changing the outlook from the previous few years. The industry is resilient and well developed, with strong innovation capabilities and export markets. If government support for smallholder farmers accelerates, and announced ammonia investments proceed and increase, the industry could reduce its dependence on imports. The turnaround at Foskor and new phosphate rock mining investments may reduce dependence on phosphorous fertiliser imports. Sustainable ammonia production has the potential to delink the industry from energy market shocks.

Report Coverage

This report on the fertiliser and nitrogen compounds industry in South Africa includes information on the size and state of the sector, such as sales and consumption, agricultural production, prices, potential localisation, infrastructure and logistics, notable players, corporate actions and trade.

There are profiles of 32 companies including major manufacturers and blenders such as Sasol, Omnia and Kynoch, Industrial Development Corporation-owned Foskor and Norwegian-owned Yara, other producers such as Guano Sales and Ecosoil, and companies involved in sales such as NWK and Senwes.