Smart Locks Market Opportunities and Strategies to 2033

This report describes and explains the smart locks market and covers 2018-2023, termed the historic period, and 2023-2028, 2033F termed the forecast period. The report evaluates the market across each region and for the major economies within each region.

The global smart locks market reached a value of nearly $2.36 billion in 2023, having grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.28% since 2018. The market is expected to grow from $2.36 billion in 2023 to $4.63 billion in 2028 at a rate of 14.33%. The market is then expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.64% from 2028 and reach $9.16 billion in 2033.

Growth in the historic period resulted from smart city initiatives, growth in the hospitality sector and growing commercial and residential projects. Factors that negatively affected growth in the historic period include increasing raw material costs.

Going forward, the growing adoption of IoT devices, growing use of smartphones, rising home security awareness and rising urbanization will drive the market. Factors that could hinder the growth of the smart locks market in the future include supply chain disruptions.

The smart locks market is segmented by product into deadbolts, lever handles, padlocks and other products. The deadbolts market was the largest segment of the smart locks market segmented by product, accounting for 45% or $1.06 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the lever handles segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the smart locks market segmented by product, at a CAGR of 16.21% during 2023-2028.

The smart locks market is segmented by communication technology into Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Zigbee and Z-Wave. The Bluetooth market was the largest segment of the smart locks market segmented by communication technology, accounting for 42.9% or $1.01 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the Wi-Fi segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the smart locks market segmented by communication technology, at a CAGR of 16.02% during 2023-2028.

The smart locks market is segmented by authentication method into biometric, PIN code and RFID cards. The PIN code market was the largest segment of the smart locks market segmented by authentication method, accounting for 42.3% or $1.0 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the biometric segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the smart locks market segmented by authentication method, at a CAGR of 16.93% during 2023-2028.

The smart locks market is segmented by application into residential, hospitality, enterprise, critical infrastructure and other applications. The residential market was the largest segment of the smart locks market segmented by application, accounting for 58.5% or $1.38 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the hospitality segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the smart locks market segmented by application, at a CAGR of 17.05% during 2023-2028.

North America was the largest region in the smart locks market, accounting for 39.7% or $941.66 million of the total in 2023. It was followed by Asia-Pacific, Western Europe and then the other regions. Going forward, the fastest-growing regions in the smart locks market will be the Middle East and Africa, where growth will be at CAGRs of 17.31% and 17.17% respectively. These will be followed by Asia-Pacific and North America, where the markets are expected to grow at CAGRs of 14.96% and 14.43% respectively.

The global smart locks market is highly concentrated, with large players operating in the market. The top ten competitors in the market made up 71% of the total market in 2023. Assa Abloy AB was the largest competitor with a 19.4% share of the market, followed by Allegion Plc. with 15.4%, Dormakaba Group with 11.8%, Master Lock Company LLC with 9.2%, Onity Inc. with 3.8%, Vivint Smart Home, Inc. with 3.5%, SALTO Systems with 3.3%, Honeywell International, Inc. with 1.9%, Samsung SDS Co., Ltd. with 1.7% and Sentrilock, LLC with 0.9%.

The top opportunities in the smart locks market segmented by product will arise in the deadbolts segment, which will gain $987.67 million of global annual sales by 2028. The top opportunities in the smart locks market segmented by communication technology will arise in the Wi-Fi segment, which will gain $1.03 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The top opportunities in the smart locks market segmented by authentication method will arise in the PIN code segment, which will gain $967.61 million of global annual sales by 2028. The top opportunities in the smart locks market segmented by application will arise in the residential segment, which will gain $1.27 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The smart locks market size will gain the most in the USA at $855.87 million.

Market-trend-based strategies for the smart locks market include innovative smart locks enhancing multi-family and residential property management, advanced retrofit smart locks with integrated Wi-Fi smart deadbolts elevating home automation capabilities, comprehensive smart lock solutions offering seamless access with mobile apps, voice assistants and traditional keys, strategic partnerships and collaborations among major players to enhance product offerings, launch of AI-enhanced smart locks with 3D face recognition and noise-reduction technology and next-generation smart locks incorporating native matter-over-thread technology for enhanced performance.

Player-adopted strategies in the smart locks market include focus on introducing advanced solutions, strengthening business capabilities through strategic partnerships, and expanding market presence with innovative products.

To take advantage of the opportunities, the analyst recommends the smart locks companies to focus on developing retrofit solutions for enhanced home automation, focus on developing advanced retrofit solutions, focus on integrating mobile apps and voice assistants, focus on integrating AI-driven face recognition technology, focus on integrating matter-over-thread technology for enhanced connectivity, focus on lever handles segment for accelerated growth, focus on Wi-Fi segment for optimal growth, focus on the biometric segment, expand in emerging markets, continue to focus on developed markets, focus on expanding distribution channels through strategic partnerships, provide competitively priced offerings, participate in trade shows and events, continue to use B2B promotions and focus on the residential segment for sustainable growth.