Strong Decarbonization Measures are Driving Transformational Growth in Electric Vehicles toward Penetration of 60% by 2032
The overall light commercial vehicle (LCV) market size is forecast to reach 2.4 million units by 2032. The European LCV market is on track to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% between 2023 and 2032. Electric vehicle (EV) penetration will increase to reach 60% during this period, up from 6.9% in 2023.
The overall size of the LCV market in Europe in 2023 was 1.9 million units. Vans held the largest volume at 1.7 million units and contributed 92.4% of the total LCV volumes. The less than 3.5t segment held 99.1% of the overall volume, and the greater than 3.5t segment made up the remaining share.
One out of every 3 LCVs sold in Europe belongs to the Stellantis Group. Next comes Ford at a distant second, with a market share of 18.0%, followed closely by Renault-Nissan Group at 15.0%. German manufacturers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz with a combined share of 21.5% complete the top five players.
Diesel is the primary powertrain technology for LCVs, powering 86.0% of them. Diesel powers 86.1% of the vehicles in the less than 3.5t segment, and even less in the higher-weight class of the greater than 3.5t segment, with a 75.0% share, due to the significant presence of EVs.
Pickups in Europe are almost entirely used for personal applications. Meanwhile, 32.9% of vans are used for parcel and delivery applications. Utilities, mobile services, and construction applications make up 37.0% of van sales, with personal and passenger applications holding a combined share of 30.2%.
The study period for this European LCV research service is 2023 to 2032.
Key Issues Addressed
- What is the size of the Europe LCV market in 2023? What are the market's future growth prospects?
- Who are the key OEMs, and what are the major applications in the LCV segment?
- What are the prospects for electrification in the market, and who are the key players driving it?
- How does the total cost of ownership for eLCVs compare with that of ICE LCV?
- What is the volume of the eLCV market expected to be in the future? What are the drivers for the growth of this market?
LCV Market Segmentation
GVWR < 6 tons LCV:
- Pickups: Compact, Mid-size, Full-size, and Heavy-Duty (HD)
- Vans: Small, Medium, and Large
- Cab-over-engine (COE) Trucks: Mini, Small, and Light
Powertrain Types:
- Gasoline
- Diesel
- Natural Gas
- Electric Vehicle (represented as both EV and xEV in this study)
Top 3 Strategic Imperatives impacting the European LCV Market
Industry Convergence
Why:
- Collaborations among automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), Tier I suppliers, and tech companies will likely address common challenges in emissions, safety, and connectivity.
- Synergies will allow stakeholders to develop innovative solutions faster, cut costs, and mitigate risks.
Analyst Perspective:
- Partnerships between automotive and tech companies are already happening and will become more common.
- The confluence of ideas from diverse area and expertise is expected to transform the next decade.
Internal Challenges
Why:
- The trucking industry, dominated by legacy companies with old ideas and resistance to change, has attracted interest from tech-savvy start-ups in recent years.
- These young companies are rewriting the rules of the game through high-level technology and artificial intelligence (AI).
Analyst Perspective:
- The following 2 to 5 years will see many new participants entering the market, especially in electrification.
- Numerous technology companies want a piece of the trucking pie and are working on connectivity, freight brokerage, and autonomous driving.
Transformative Megatrends
Why:
- The Mobility Revolution Megatrend considers how autonomous mobility, green transportation, and new mobility models will shape the future.
- In the trucking industry, the keywords are connected, autonomous, shared, and electric (CASE).
- Each will contribute to a cleaner, safer, and more sustainable environment.
Analyst Perspective:
- Connected and shared technologies in the form of telematics and digital freight brokerage are in the nascent stage but already in deployment.
- A proliferation of electric trucks are expected in this decade.
- Depending on the level, autonomous driving is still 5 to 10 years away.
