The Manufacture of Flour and Grain Mill Products Industry in South Africa

This report focuses on the manufacture of flour and grain mill products, including the milling of maize and wheat. It includes information on production, consumption, commodity and food prices, consumption trends and the production outlook. There is also information on notable players, key trends and issues, and influencing factors such as input costs and land reform.

The report includes profiles of 18 companies such as the biggest millers Pioneer Foods (Sasko), Tiger Brands, Premier FMCG, Pride Milling and RCL Foods (Foodcorp) and millers such as VKB, Godrich and Blinkwater.

Introduction

• Consumption of maize and wheat products increased marginally in the last year. 
• Exports and imports of milled grain products grew strongly in 2023.
• Wheat prices have moderated in recent months.
• White maize prices are expected to remain elevated due to strong demand from neighbouring countries affected by drought and lower local maize production. 
• Climate change, land reform and poor logistics are key challenges for the sector. 
• The industry is highly concentrated and controlled by a handful of farmers, silo owners and manufacturers.

Trends

• Consumption of wheat products is experiencing an uptick after prices moderated following a decline over the last decade.
• Flour fortification has gained acceptance in a number of countries.
• Grain commodity prices have declined slightly from a peak in 2022, and are expected to experience only moderate increases in the medium-term.
• Maize meal sales are forecast to remain under pressure, given high maize prices.
• Milling companies have responded to the tougher economic environment by investing in productivity improvements.
• Production of maize products has recently surged, with export demand growing due to drought in neighbouring countries.
• Some wheat and maize millers are diversifying.
• The storage volume of grain storage facilities has increased consistently in recent years.
• Trade in milled products has risen sharply in the last five years.

Opportunities

• Construction of grain storage and warehouses.
• Exporting maize meal products to drought- affected African countries.
• New export markets for milled products.
• The small milling industry encourages new skills development and can empower communities to become self-sufficient
• Updating equipment to improve efficiencies and productivity.

Challenges

• Climate change.
• Congestion at ports.
• Government’s land reform policy.
• High wheat prices have an inflationary impact on basic food products.
• Infestation of pests especially on maize crops.
• Loadshedding
• Market dominance by major producers.
• Poor road and rail infrastructure.
• Reliant on imports of some grains, especially wheat and therefore affected by the volatility of the rand.
• Rising input costs.
• Shortage of experienced millers.
• Wheat millers must balance inconsistent domestic wheat quality with imports.

Outlook

• While the economic slowdown initially led to consumers trading down to maize meal, consumption of wheat products such as bread and snacks has increased recently as wheat prices have stabilised. 
• Food inflation has cooled, and maize and wheat prices are to increase moderately in future, which could encourage consumption and further milling production increases.
• Some experts have raised concern over the oversupply of milled products. 
• The slight decline in consumption of wheat products over the last decade has resulted in oversupply and in producers focusing more on higher-margin goods such as cakes, fine bread, or pasta that are less susceptible to price fluctuations.
• Oversupply could prompt consolidation in the industry in coming years, unless demand for wheat products picks up.