The oil and gas industry is facing pressures from both governments and investors to decarbonize and diversify its products. Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.
The oil and gas industry currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products is arguably the largest. This is due to climate concerns, as well as increasing carbon tax imposed by governments, which threatens oil and gas companies’ profits. This pressure also comes from investors, who are concerned with the long-term profitability of the industry. In fact, the World Economic Forum forecasts oil demand to peak between 2030 and 2035.
Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.
There are a number of strategies that oil and gas players are exploring to branch into the low carbon fuels market. One pathway includes producing renewable diesel and SAFs through coprocessing or the conversion of existing refineries by repurposing existing equipment. Another pathway includes long-term investments into renewable standalone refineries, which require greater upfront capital but can scale production to far higher capacities than co-processing and conversion refineries.
Renewable standalone projects are expected to contribute the bulk of the production capacity for renewable diesel and SAFs, accounting for 64% of the overall renewable refinery capacity in 2030. Meanwhile, oil and gas players will need to engage with hydrogen suppliers or invest in their own hydrogen production facilities to produce synthetic fuels.
The production of each of these low-carbon fuels is expected to increase, but all come with their own set of challenges, namely that they are currently not cost-competitive compared to conventional fuels. A surge in fossil fuel demand in recent years has also led oil and gas companies to gain more confidence surrounding the industry’s longevity, leading to a recent slowdown in low-carbon fuel investments.
Overall, SAFs will experience the strongest growth, with production increasing at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035 and, as a result, represent a promising area of development for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, renewable diesel production will increase at a smaller CAGR of 9% across the same time frame, as some of its capacity will be diverted to SAFs. RD may also face oversupply challenges in the next decade, due to a predicted decrease in its demand. Lastly, production challenges will see synthetic fuels as the renewable fuel picked the least by oil and gas companies in the run-up to 2030.
The oil and gas industry currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products is arguably the largest. This is due to climate concerns, as well as increasing carbon tax imposed by governments, which threatens oil and gas companies’ profits. This pressure also comes from investors, who are concerned with the long-term profitability of the industry. In fact, the World Economic Forum forecasts oil demand to peak between 2030 and 2035.
Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.
There are a number of strategies that oil and gas players are exploring to branch into the low carbon fuels market. One pathway includes producing renewable diesel and SAFs through coprocessing or the conversion of existing refineries by repurposing existing equipment. Another pathway includes long-term investments into renewable standalone refineries, which require greater upfront capital but can scale production to far higher capacities than co-processing and conversion refineries.
Renewable standalone projects are expected to contribute the bulk of the production capacity for renewable diesel and SAFs, accounting for 64% of the overall renewable refinery capacity in 2030. Meanwhile, oil and gas players will need to engage with hydrogen suppliers or invest in their own hydrogen production facilities to produce synthetic fuels.
The production of each of these low-carbon fuels is expected to increase, but all come with their own set of challenges, namely that they are currently not cost-competitive compared to conventional fuels. A surge in fossil fuel demand in recent years has also led oil and gas companies to gain more confidence surrounding the industry’s longevity, leading to a recent slowdown in low-carbon fuel investments.
Overall, SAFs will experience the strongest growth, with production increasing at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035 and, as a result, represent a promising area of development for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, renewable diesel production will increase at a smaller CAGR of 9% across the same time frame, as some of its capacity will be diverted to SAFs. RD may also face oversupply challenges in the next decade, due to a predicted decrease in its demand. Lastly, production challenges will see synthetic fuels as the renewable fuel picked the least by oil and gas companies in the run-up to 2030.
Key Highlights
- Capacities for all three types of renewable refineries (crude oil refinery conversion, coprocessing and renewable standalone) are forecast to keep increasing through to 2030.
- Crude refinery conversion and crude refinery co-processing capacities are both set to grow at a CAGR of 14% between 2024 and 2030.
- Renewable standalone capacity is growing at the highest rate, with a CAGR of 30% between 2024 and 2030.
- For all three types of refineries, between 2024 and 2030, a shift can be witnessed where capacity is increasingly being devoted to SAFs as opposed to RD.
- RD production and consumption are both set to grow at a CAGR of 12% and 12.5%, respectively, between 2020 and 2032, where they are set to reach a peak.
- Global SAF production and consumption are both set to grow at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035.
- Synthetic fuel production from low-carbon hydrogen is set to keep growing, with a positive CAGR of 58% between 2025 and 2030, with a spike in capacity in 2030 (over 10mtpa).
Scope
- Oil and gas sector strategies for low-carbon fuels;
- Legislative framework for biofuels, with specific focus on RD and SAF;
- Sector strategies for transitioning into renewable fuels, including refinery retrofitting;
- Crude oil refinery conversion and coprocessing vs renewable standalone
- Renewable diesel: market outlook and leaders
- SAFs: market outlook and leaders
- Synthetic fuels: market outlook and leaders
Reasons to Buy
- Identify decarbonizing market trends within the oil and gas sector, including the analysis of the strategies that the biggest industry players are implementing.
- Develop market insight of the major technologies and pathways used to decarbonize the industry, including refinery retrofitting as well as investment into standalone refineries, with focus on renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels, and synthetic fuels.
- Identify the key policies driving development and which countries have the most established legislative framework for said technologies.
- Facilitate the understanding of what is predicted to happen in the renewable fuels market within the next decade.
Table of Contents
- Executive summary
- Oil and gas sector strategies for low-carbon fuels
- Legislative framework for biofuels
- Sector strategies for transitioning into renewable fuels
- Crude oil refinery conversion and coprocessing vs renewable standalone
- Renewable diesel: market outlook and leaders
- SAFs: market outlook and leaders
- Synthetic fuels: market outlook and leaders
- Key takeaways
- Oil and gas focus areas in the low carbon fuels market
- Current key oil and gas players in the biofuels market
- Crude refinery conversion and co-processing: pros and cons for refiners
- Crude refineries converted and co-processing active and upcoming projects
- Crude refineries for renewable standalone active and upcoming
- The largest renewable diesel projects by their 2030 capacity
- The largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
- RD, SAF and synthetic fuel development stage
- Renewable refineries capacity by type, 2024-2030
- Renewable refineries by project count, 2024-2030
- CAPEX across renewable refineries types
- Leading renewable fuel producers in 2024 YTD (conversion and coprocessing)
- Predicted renewable fuel producers in 2030 (conversion and coprocessing)
- Leading renewable fuel companies in 2024 YTD (renewable standalone)
- Leading renewable fuel companies in 2030 (renewable standalone)
- RD production by region, 2020-2035
- RD consumption by region, 2020-2035
- Top 5 companies for RD production by capacity, 2024
- Top 5 companies for RD production by capacity, 2030
- Top 10 non-oil and gas companies by mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
- Top 10 oil and gas companies by mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
- Mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
- SAF production by region, 2020-2035
- SAF consumption by region, 2020-2035
- Top 5 companies for SAF production by capacity, 2024
- Top 5 companies for SAF production by capacity, 2030
- Top 10 non-oil and gas companies by mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
- Top 10 oil and gas companies by mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
- Mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
- Upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuels and project count, 2025-2030
- Top 5 companies for synthetic fuel production by capacity, 2024
- Top 5 companies for synthetic fuel production by capacity, 2030
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- Neste Corp
- Marathon Petroleum Corp
- Chevron Corp
- Eni SpA
- Valero
- BP plc
- China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)
- Phillips 66
- Canadian Natural Resources
- GAIL (India)
- Enel SpA
- Repsol SA
- HF Sinclair Corp
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA
- Compania Espanola de Petroleos SAU
- Calumet Inc
- PBF Energy Inc
- TotalEnergies SE
- CVR Energy Inc
- ExxonMobil Corp
- Global Clean Energy Holdings Inc
- World Energy LLC
- PBF Energy Inc
- Corral Petroleum Holdings AB
- PT Petramina (Persero)
- Darling Ingredients Inc
- Beijing Haixin Energy Technology Co Ltd
- Henan Junheng Industrial Group Biotechnology Co Ltd
- Seabord Energy
- ECO Biochemical Technology Co Ltd
- Shijiangzhuang Changyou Bioenergy Co Ltd
- Crimson Renewable Energy LLC
- Azure Sustainable Fuels Corp
- Gevo Inc
- DG Fuels LLC
- Summit Agricultural Group
- AGT Food and Ingredients Inc
- Federated Co-operatives Ltd
- Steamboat Fuels LLC
- Evolve Transition Infrastructure LP
- Hobo Renewable Diesel LLC
- Parkland Corp
- Ecovyst Inc
- Overseas Shipholding Group Inc
- Clean Energy Fuels Corp
- Carnarvon Energy Ltd
- Suncor Energy Inc
- Kinder Morgan Inc
- Green Plains Inc
- Global Partners LP
- Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP
- Dalek US Holdings Inc
- Imperial Oil Ltd
- Acelen (Brazil)
- Henan Junheng Industrial Group Biotechnology Co Ltd
- Oriental Energy Co Ltd
- World Kinect Corp
- Green Plains Inc
- Johnson Matthey Plc
- Ecovyst Inc
- Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP
- Worley Ltd
- General Electric Co
- Sasol Ltd
- Airbus SE
- Rolls-Royce Plc
- Viva Energy Group Ltd
- Puma Energy Holdings
- OMV AG
- Shell Plc
- Mitsui & Co Ltd
- European Energy AS
- Yara International AS
- Skive GreenLab Biogas ApS
- Intercontinental Energy Corp
- CWP Global
- Climate Impact Corp
- HIF Global
- Aqua Aerem Pty Ltd.
