Condensed Milk Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, 2021-2031

The Global Condensed Milk Market is projected to expand from USD 4.11 Billion in 2025 to USD 5.45 Billion by 2031, registering a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.82 percent. Condensed milk is characterized as a concentrated dairy item produced by removing water from cow's milk, often fortified with sugar to achieve a thick consistency and ensure preservation. The market is propelled by the product's long shelf life, which is essential for regions lacking robust cold chain infrastructure, and its widespread use as a binding agent and sweetener in the bakery and confectionery sectors. Validating this demand, the European Milk Market Observatory reported an 8.5 percent increase in European Union condensed milk production during the first nine months of 2024, highlighting the enduring need for this stable ingredient.

However, the market confronts a notable obstacle due to shifting consumer health preferences. The substantial sugar content typical of sweetened condensed milk creates friction with health-conscious demographics, potentially hindering market growth. As consumers increasingly favor plant-based or low-calorie substitutes, the demand for traditional high-sugar dairy products faces distinct challenges in an environment prioritizing nutritional wellness.

Market Drivers

A primary engine for growth in the condensed milk market is the escalating demand from the confectionery and bakery industries, where the ingredient is essential for improving shelf stability, sweetness, and texture in desserts like cakes and fudges. This industrial reliance fuels substantial cross-border trade, as manufacturers import high-quality dairy concentrates to satisfy large-scale processing requirements and mitigate fresh milk shortages. Reflecting this intense industrial appetite, Dairynews.today reported in February 2025 that Russian imports of condensed and dry milk and cream surged by 26.5 percent to reach 132,100 tons in 2024, underscoring the critical role these versatile ingredients play in the food processing sector.

Furthermore, the growth of modern retail and e-commerce platforms is significantly boosting market accessibility for both commercial buyers and household consumers. Major dairy companies are aggressively extending their global reach into online marketplaces and international supermarkets, leveraging the shelf-stable nature of the product to enter new regions effectively. For instance, Vinamilk reported in November 2024 a 15.7 percent rise in export revenue for the first three quarters, driven by the success of key items like sweetened condensed milk abroad. Supporting these vast operations requires massive financial scale; FrieslandCampina noted in February 2025 that it generated 12.9 billion euros in revenue for the full year 2024, demonstrating the economic magnitude of global dairy distribution.

Market Challenges

The significant sugar levels inherent in sweetened condensed milk pose a major hurdle to market expansion as global health priorities transform. Relying on added sugar for texture and preservation, the product stands in contrast to the growing trend of managing blood glucose and reducing caloric intake. As shoppers become more diligent about reading nutritional labels, traditional condensed milk is increasingly viewed as an occasional treat rather than a pantry staple, limiting its adoption in health-focused households and curbing volume growth in developed markets where wellness trends are deeply rooted.

Data supports this shift in consumer behavior and the resulting pressure on sugary dairy items. According to the International Food Information Council, 66 percent of consumers in 2024 stated they were actively limiting their sugar consumption, a notable increase from the previous year. This widespread avoidance of added sweeteners restricts the condensed milk market's ability to broaden its user base beyond confectionery uses, creating headwinds in maintaining sales volumes among demographics that are systematically eliminating high-sugar ingredients from their diets.

Market Trends

The industry is experiencing a shift toward premium and artisanal products, as manufacturers evolve beyond basic sweetening to support sophisticated culinary needs. This trend involves the creation of high-quality, regulatory-compliant concentrates tailored for artisanal coffee culture and discerning international markets that prioritize purity and texture. Brands are upgrading production standards to meet rigorous quality controls in developed regions, elevating the product's status. Illustrating this success, The Investor reported in January 2025 that Vinamilk saw a 12.6 percent year-on-year revenue increase from foreign markets in 2024, a growth trajectory heavily supported by the entry of its condensed milk into the highly regulated European market.

concurrently, packaging innovation is transforming the user experience through the adoption of convenient squeeze tubes and spouted pouches. These flexible formats address the limitations of traditional metal cans by offering precise dosage, improved hygiene, and resealability, while bulk bag-in-box solutions help food service operators reduce waste. According to SIG’s 'Annual Report 2024', released in February 2025, the company secured a significant number of new contracts for spouted pouch and bag-in-box systems, reflecting a strong industrial and consumer preference for these versatile packaging solutions over rigid alternatives.

Key Players Profiled in the Condensed Milk Market

• Nestle SA
• Santini Foods, Inc.
• Eagle Family Foods Group LLC
• Arla Foods amba
• Hochwald Foods GmbH
• F&N Dairies (Thailand) Limited
• Morinaga Milk Industry Co. Ltd.
• Royal Friesland Campina N.V
• Magnolia Inc.
• Borden Dairy Company

Report Scope

In this report, the Global Condensed Milk Market has been segmented into the following categories:

Condensed Milk Market, by Product Type:

• Dairy
• Non-Dairy

Condensed Milk Market, by Packaging Type:

• Cans
• Tubes
• Bottles

Condensed Milk Market, by Sales Channel:

• Hypermarkets/Supermarkets
• Convenience Stores
• Specialty Stores
• Online
• Others

Condensed Milk Market, by Region:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• South America
• Middle East & Africa

Competitive Landscape

Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Condensed Milk Market.

Available Customization

The analyst offers customization according to your specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report:

• Detailed analysis and profiling of additional market players (up to five).

This product will be delivered within 1-3 business days.