Residential Heat Pump Industry, Global, 2024-2035

The Need to Decarbonize Residential Buildings is Driving Transformational Growth

The global residential heat pump (HP) market is forecast to reach 17.0 million units by 2035, up from 7.6 million in 2024. Market definitions are important to the market forecast, and Frost & Sullivan excludes the sale of HPs for air conditioning. Market revenues are forecast to reach $80.43 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 8.5% from 2024 to 2035. As of 2024, Europe and the United States are the largest markets, holding 74.6% of global unit sales and 74.0% of global revenues, followed by China and Japan. HPs offer several advantages, including higher efficiency and the acceleration of heat decarbonization, as renewable electricity powers them. However, challenges include market- and site-dependent suitability and factors such as the age of households and insulation that require evaluation. Installation costs, especially for existing properties, are significant, and HPs have higher capital costs than gas boilers. Additionally, wider investment is necessary to ensure that HPs do not strain local electricity grids. Skilled installers and consultants are lacking in some markets, and the public is hesitant because of their familiarity with boiler technology.