Central Air Conditioning Systems - A US Market Overview

The U.S. Central Air Conditioning (CAC) Systems manufacturing industry demonstrated remarkable resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, achieving an 8.4% year-over-year growth in production to reach 7.8 million units. This robust performance underscored the industry's adaptability amidst significant challenges. On the supply side, operational restrictions posed hurdles, but strong residential demand sustained growth. Historically low interest rates and rising disposable incomes in 2020 fueled residential construction activity, further boosting industry sales. Many consumers directed increased income towards home improvements, including HVAC upgrades. Conversely, the non-residential construction sector experienced reduced demand for commercial spaces due to the pandemic's impact.

Demand for CAC systems continued to climb in 2021 and 2022, driven by the recovery of both residential and commercial construction and government-led renovation initiatives. Shipments rose by 8.4% in 2021 and stabilized at a 1.4% growth rate in 2022. The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022 provided a significant boost, as the legislation introduced $9 billion in home energy rebate programs and a decade-long tax credit for energy-efficient technologies like heat pumps, rooftop solar panels, and high-efficiency HVAC systems. These measures, alongside rising product prices, propelled the value of U.S. CAC shipments to a record $20 billion in 2022.

In 2023, demand softened due to economic uncertainty, escalating construction costs, and higher interest rates, which collectively slowed construction activity across the region. The sharp rise in interest rates, beginning in mid-2022, dampened housing demand, reducing the need for CAC systems. As a result, shipment values declined to $16.5 billion in 2023.

However, the industry rebounded in 2024, with production growing by 8.1% to reach 7.8 million units. Looking ahead, the U.S. unit shipments of CAC systems are projected to grow from 7.8 million units in 2024 to 11 million units by 2030, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% during this period. The shipment value is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7.2%, reaching $27.6 billion by 2030. This growth will be primarily driven by heightened sales of Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) systems and heat pumps, reflecting the ongoing demand for energy-efficient cooling solutions.

Major companies operating in the United States Central Air Conditioning Systems market include Carrier Global Corporation, Daikin U.S. Corporation, Johnson Controls Inc (York), Lennox International Inc., Nortek Global HVAC LLC, Rheem Manufacturing Company, and Trane Technologies among others.

United States Central Air Conditioning Systems Market Analysis by Product Segment

The market for United States Central Air Conditioning Systems by product segment analyzed in this report include Direct Exchange (DX) CAC Systems (Split AC Systems, Packaged AC Systems, Heat Pumps), and Central Plant Systems (Chillers, Cooling Towers, Air Handling Units, Fan Coil Units). DX CAC Systems is the largest segment in terms of volume shipments in the United States Central Air Conditioning Systems market with a share of 95.3% in 2024 and anticipated to post a healthy CAGR of 6.2% between 2024 and 2030 in reaching 10.7 million units in 2030, driven mainly by robust growth in Heat Pumps production in the United States. Among Central Plant Systems, Chillers corner the largest share of the United States Central Air Conditioning Systems market in terms of shipments value, estimated at 47.5% in 2024, followed by Air Handling Units.

United States Central Air Conditioning Systems Market Report Scope

This United States Central Air Conditioning (CAC) Systems report analyzes the market size based on annual unit shipments by domestic Central Air Conditioning Systems manufacturers. This market report analyzes US Central Air Conditioning Systems volume shipments and shipments value by product segment and sub-segment for the period 2021-2030. In addition to providing profiles of major companies operating in the United States HVAC industry, the latest corporate and industrial developments have been covered to offer a clear panorama of the United States HVAC industry.

Key Metrics

• Historical Period: 2021-2023
• Base Year: 2024
• Forecast Period: 2024-2030
• Units: Volume Shipments in units and Value market in US$
• Companies Mentioned: 20+

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