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Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028

  • Report

  • February 2025
  • Region: Global
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 6060060

Near-Term Shocks Amid US Policy Moves; Protracted Trade Wars Will Shave Off 1.5% of Global GDP Growth in 2028

Global trade and economic growth momentum will be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States. This macroeconomic thought leadership lays down potential US policy scenarios (including tariffs, immigration, and foreign policy) to establish forecasts for 2025 and 2028 for the global economy and the economies of the United States, China, Mexico, and the euro area. In the baseline, the publisher expects the impact on global GDP to remain muted between 2025 and 2028 mainly due to buoyant growth in key Asian emerging markets. In the pessimistic scenario, protracted trade wars could shave off 1.5% from global GDP growth in 2028. At the national level, in 2028, the United States' real GDP growth could slow to 2.0% in the baseline scenario and a meager 0.5% in the pessimistic scenario. US trade and immigration regulations might exacerbate recessionary conditions in the Canadian and Mexican economies in 2025. For instance, the Mexican economy is forecast to face a 0.4% contraction in 2025 in the baseline and a 0.5% contraction in the pessimistic case.

The analysis includes long-term implications of the second Trump administration on the global economy and on the automotive, semiconductor, and oil and gas industries. Decision-makers and executives can leverage this thought leadership to make informed business and expansion decisions in the near to medium term in an era of elevated geopolitical tensions and persistent trade wars.

Table of Contents

Growth Opportunities: Research Scope
  • Scope of Analysis
Strategic Imperatives
  • Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
  • The Strategic Imperative 8™
  • The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives of Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028
Growth Opportunity Analysis
  • Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028: Drivers and Restraints
  • Economic Metrics
  • Abbreviations
Ecosystem
  • Executive Orders - Immigration-Focused
  • Executive Orders - Energy and Climate-Focused
  • Executive Orders - Corporate Tax-Focused Measures
Growth Generator
  • Trump 2.0 - Potential Policy Vision Scenarios
  • Trump 2.0 Policy Likelihood and Risk Impact Mapping
  • Key Macroeconomic Impact - Global
  • Key Macroeconomic Impact - United States
  • Key Macroeconomic Impact - China
  • Key Macroeconomic Impact - Mexico
  • Key Macroeconomic Impact - Euro Area
  • Trump 2.0 Long-Term Implications
Industry Impact Analysis
  • Automotive
  • Oil and Gas
  • Semiconductors
Growth Opportunity Universe
  • Growth Opportunity 1: Automotive
  • Growth Opportunity 2: Energy (Oil and Gas, Green Energy, and Nuclear Energy)
  • Growth Opportunity 3: High-Tech Industries (AI and Semiconductors)
Appendix & Next Steps
  • Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
  • Next Steps
  • List of Exhibits
  • Legal Disclaimer
List of Figures
  • Economic Metrics, Global, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Trump 2.0 Potential Policy Visioning Scenarios, Global, 2025-2028
  • Trump 2.0 Policy Likelihood and Risk Impact Mapping, 2025-2028
  • Real GDP Growth by Scenario, Global, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Inflation Rate by Scenario, Global, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Real GDP Growth by Scenario, United States, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Inflation Rate by Scenario, United States, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Real GDP Growth by Scenario, China, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Inflation Rate by Scenario, China, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Real GDP Growth by Scenario, Mexico, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Inflation Rate by Scenario, Mexico, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Real GDP Growth by Scenario, Euro Area, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Inflation Rate by Scenario, Euro Area, 2024, 2025E, 2028F
  • Trump 2.0 Top 5 Potential Transformations, Global, 2025-2028
  • Trump 2.0 Automotive Industry Impact Analysis, US and Global, 2025-2026
  • Trump 2.0 Oil and Gas Industry Impact Analysis, US and Global, 2025-2026
  • Trump 2.0 Semiconductor Industry Impact Analysis, US and Global, 2025-2026