Saudi Arabia Exploration and Production Report

The outlook for Saudi Arabia’s crude oil and condensate production looks bullish. The production is expected to increase by approximately 5.2% between 2025 and 2029. The next two years will see the commissioning of the major expansion crude oil projects including Berri, Zuluf, and Marjan. These projects will add together nearly 1 mmbd to the kingdom’s production capacity, boosting it close to 13 mmbd. If natural gas and solar project see a robust progress, the surplus of crude oil available for export will increase, given the fact that the rise in electricity consumption over the past two years has put pressure on Saudi oil exports.

Over the past two years, Saudi Arabia has borne a significant burden of the production cuts agreed upon by the OPEC+ alliance starting in October 2022 Although it was hoped that these cuts would be gradually rolled back at the beginning of 2024, weak economic growth in China, rising oil production in the United States, and low interest rates have delayed this step. OPEC+, under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, was supposed to end production cuts gradually in October 2024, but this move has been delayed due to market conditions. The several delays of the production cuts reflected the uncertainty regarding the market conditions from alliance’s perspective. The geopolitical tensions seen in the Middle East region add new layer for this uncertainty. Starting from April this year, production cuts will be phased out gradually until the end of 2026, providing Saudi Arabia more room to increase its oil output. If the incoming US administration toughens its sanctions on Iran’s oil export, Saudi Arabia could be one of the beneficiaries of this move, strengthening its position in the Chinese market after losing a fraction of its share to Iranian and Russian crude, which were sold to Chinese refineries at discount.

The second half of the current decade will mark a turning point for Saudi Arabia’s upstream sector, as the efforts made in recent years will bear fruit. On one hand, oil field expansion projects will come online, increasing the kingdom’s production capacity to nearly 13 mmbd, thereby strengthening its position in global energy market. On the other hand, the focus on a gas-centric strategy will yield benefits, with rising gas production freeing up more crude oil previously burned for power generation, creating greater value from it through various pathway including export and converting it into petrochemical products.

Scope

• Outlook on the crue oil and natural gas production in the country
• Key details of active and upcoming oil and gas assets in the country
• Analysis of the LNG market and Saudi Arabia's role in this market

Reasons to Buy

• Gain a strong understanding of Saudi Arabia's E&P sector
• Facilitate decision making based on strong historical and outlook of oil and gas production data, licensed blocks details, and discoveries
• Assess your competitor’s production outlook and licensed blocks count in the country
• Analyze the latest M&A landscape and awarded contracts related to the country’s E&P sector