U.S. Beverage Market Outlook, 2024: Opportunities & Challenges With Pricing, Better-For-You Options, & More

Report
319 Pages
June 2024
Region: United States
Packaged Facts
ID: 4830140

With a focus on growth opportunities and “what’s next” - along with bringing decades of food and beverage market perspective and analysis to the table - this report is packed with actionable insights about consumer trends, behavior, and motivations. The report delivers predictions and recommendations designed to guide retailers, service providers, wholesalers, beverage suppliers and bottlers, packaging firms, and investors in making business decisions about the beverage market.

Most major beverage categories are mature and rely primarily on population growth, leaving marketers with the challenge of bringing something new to the table. Opportunities abound for companies that invest in new product innovations, ingredient upgrades, and sustainable packaging. Suppliers succeed when using different marketing tactics to appeal to changing consumer preferences, including the wellness, functional, and plant-based areas but also limited edition flavor trends to bring new experiences to consumers.

While Inflation-fueled price growth has moderated, prices remain higher than before 2020. Consumers have continued to seek value, whether that means in comparison to the price of dining out or in comparison to routine grocery items, with private label options continuing to perform better than national brands.

Historical and projected retail sales are presented in additional detail for beverages within these primary categories - carbonated soft drinks, energy and sports drinks, bottled water (plain and enhanced), dairy beverages, dairy alternatives, juices, coffee, and tea. Additionally, the report has dozens of tables showcasing numerical survey data on consumer demographics and psychographics and numerous figures and images highlighting product and marketing trend examples. This report also goes in-depth on COVID-19 trends that continue to affect the beverage market.

CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

BEVERAGE TRENDS
Figure 1-1. Beverage Market Trends
SCOPE
METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 2: TRENDS FROM THE PANDEMIC TO THE INFLATION ERA

CONCERNS ABOUT COVID-19 EXPOSURE REMAIN
Most Still Consider the Pandemic a Health Threat
Table 2-1. Coronavirus Health Concerns: “I am concerned about the…”, 2021 - 2023 (% of consumers)
Vaccination for the Flu and COVID-19
Table 2-2. Consumer Vaccination Plans, 2023 (% of consumers)
Table 2-3. Consumer Vaccination Rates, 2024 (% of consumers)
Some Consumers Continue to Wear Masks in Public and Avoid Crowds
Table 2-4. Consumer Habits Regarding Masks, Crowds, and Testing for COVID-19, 2024 (% of consumers)
NEGATIVE PERSONAL EFFECTS OF THE PANDEMIC
Reporting Negative Mental States in 2023
Figure 2-1. Current Feelings on Mental and Physical Symptoms Compared to “Normal” or Preferred Level, 2023 (% of consumers)
Continuing Mental and Physical Health Effects in 2024
Table 2-5. Current Feelings on Mental and Physical Symptoms Compared to “Normal” or Preferred Level, 2024 (% of consumers)
Stress Levels and Impact on Food/Beverage Consumption
Figure 2-2. Stress Levels and Impact of Stress on Healthfulness of Food/Beverage Consumption, 2023
Figure 2-3. Impact of Food Consumption on Mental or Emotional Well-Being, 2023
WORK-FROM-HOME TRENDS
Working from Home in 2023: Work from Home Ability and Frequency
Table 2-6. Ability to Work from Home and Frequency of Remote Work, 2023 (% of consumers)
Work Habits in 2024: Typical Work Weeks
Table 2-7. “How Much of Your Typical Work Week is Spent at the Following Locations?”, 2024 (% of employed consumers)
Work Habits in 2024: Typical Work Arrangements
Figure 2-4. Typical Work Arrangements (Fully Remote, Hybrid, and Traditional), 2024 (% of employed consumers)
HOME COOKING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
Table 2-8 Home Cooking Behaviors, Agree Completely, 2013 - 2023 (% of US adults)
INFLATION AND PRICES
Many Consumers Are Concerned about Inflation and Rising Food Prices
Table 2-9. Consumer Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2023 - 2024 (% of consumers)
Vast Majority of Consumers Have Noticed the Rising Cost of Food; Many Changing Purchasing Decisions
Figure 2-5. Noticing the Rising Cost of Food and Beverages over the Past Year, 2023 (% of consumers)
Figure 2-6. Impact of Rising Costs on Food/Beverage Purchasing, 2023 (% of consumers)
Consumers Find Price More Important for Food Purchase Decisions in 2023
Figure 2-7. Purchase Drivers for Food and Beverage Purchase Decisions, 2023 (% of consumers)
Cutting Back on Household Expenses
Table 2-10. Consumer Spending on “Extras”, 2023 - 2024 (% of consumers)
Table 2-11. “If a food item is on sale, I buy multiple units to stock up.” Agree Completely, 2013 - 2023 (% of US adults)

CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW

BEVERAGE RETAIL SALES FORECAST
Future Outperformers: Energy & Sports Drinks and Bottled Water
Table 3-1. US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Beverage Categories, 2018, 2023 - 2028P (million dollars and percent)
Post-Pandemic: Dollar Sales Surge, Demand Suffers
Table 3-2. US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Beverage Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (million dollars and percent)
Table 3-3. US Retail Dollar and Volume Sales by Top Beverage Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (percent change)
Table 3-4. Annual Price Changes by Top Beverage Categories, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (percent change)
DISTRIBUTION TRENDS
E-Commerce and Grocery Delivery
Table 3-5. Purchased Groceries Over Internet in Last 30 days, 2013 - 2023 (percent of US adults)
Faster and More Convenient Home Delivery
Drone Delivery
In-Home Delivery
DoorDash Expands SNAP Payments to More Grocers
SNACKING
Frequency of Snacking and Reasons for Snacking
Figure 3-1 Frequency of Snacking, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Figure 3-2 Reasons for Snacking, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Figure 3-3 Most Common Snacks by Day Part, 2023 (percent of consumers)
CONVENIENCE STORES MAINTAIN POST-PANDEMIC RECOVERY

CHAPTER 4: BEVERAGE TRENDS

HEALTHIER+
Figure 4-1. Priority of Selected Food Characteristics, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Table 4-1. “I Buy Food Labeled As…”, 2017 - 2023 (percent of US adults)
Natural “Natural” Labels Most Impactful When Grocery Shopping
Figure 4-2. Influential Labels When Purchasing Food, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Healthy Food
Fresh and Low Sugar Top Healthy Food Definers
Figure 4-3. Defining Healthy Food, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Reduced or Zero Sugar
Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake
Figure 4-4. Avoiding or Limiting Sugars, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake
Figure 4-5. Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugars, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Sugar Continues to Be Preferred Over Low/No-Calorie Sweeteners
Figure 4-6. Preferences for Sweeteners, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Processed Foods
Figure 4-7. Consideration of Processed Foods, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Diet-Friendly
Figure 4-8. Adherence to a Diet/Eating Pattern in the Past Year, 2019 - 2023 (percent of consumers)
Table 4-2. “Are you familiar with (heard of it and know what is involved in following it) any of the following diet and eating philosophies?”, 2021 - 2023 (percent of consumers)
High Protein
Weight Loss
Figure 4-9. Eating Pattern/Diet Motivations in the Past Year, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Weight-loss Drugs
ALTERNATIVES WITH REAL DAIRY ATTRIBUTES
Dairy-Free, Plant-Based
Table 4-3. Prevalence of Plant-Forward Eating Habits/Diet Control, 2019 - 2024 (percent of consumers)
Animal-Free Dairy
IGNITE THE SENSES
TARGET GAMERS
KID-FOCUSED
HARD BEVERAGES
CBD-INFUSED
PARTNERSHIPS A WIN-WIN
INFLUENCER INSPIRED
PRIVATE LABEL STILL OUTPERFORMING NATIONAL BRANDS
Table 4-4. Selected Private Label Department Dollar Sales Growth, 2021, 2022, 2023 (percent change)
Table 4-5. Consumption Rates in last 6 months for Selected Store Brand Beverages, 2013-2023 (percent of US households)
RESPONSIBLE NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT (NPD)
Packaging
Figure 4-10. Willingness to Take Action About Sustainability, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Figure 4-11. Importance of Sustainability Practices, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Figure 4-12. Affordability of Sustainable Lifestyle, 2024 (percent of consumers)
The Multifaceted Goals of Sustainable Packaging
Figure 4-13. Most Important Sustainable/Eco-Friendly Packaging Features, by age group 2024 (percent of consumers)
Priorities in Conflict
Figure 4-14. Consumer Perceptions of Packaging Materials’ Eco-Friendliness 2024 (percent of consumers)

CHAPTER 5: BOTTLED AND ENHANCED WATERS

SALES OUTLOOK
Market to Exceed $38 Billion in 2028
Table 5-1. Bottled and Enhanced Water Retail Sales, 2018-2028 (million dollars, million gallons, and percent change)
Segment Sales
Figure 5-1. Bottled and Enhanced Water Retail Sales Dollar Share: By Segment 2020, 2023 (percent)
Table 5-2. Bottled and Enhanced Water Retail Sales: By Segment, 2016-2028 (million dollars and percent change)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Consumer Preferences - Still Water Unflavored; Sparkling Water/Seltzer Flavored
Table 5-3. Consumption Rates for Bottled Water, 2021-2023 (percent of households)
Still Water Consumed Far More than Sparkling or Seltzer
Table 5-4. Drinks/Glasses of Bottled Water in Last 7 Days, 2023 (percent of households that drink bottled water and sparkling water/seltzer)
Water Filter Ownership Remains High
Table 5-5. Water Filter Ownership, 2013-2023 (percent of households)
Gains Continue for Hard Seltzer Despite Slowdown
Table 5-6. Consumption Rates for Flavored Alcoholic Beverages/Coolers, 2013-2023 (percent of adults)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Healthier+
Ignite the Senses
Comfort & Nostalgia
Sober Curious
Hard Seltzers/Waters
Responsible NPD
CBD-Infused

CHAPTER 6: CARBONATED SOFT DRINKS

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Nearly $68 Billion in 2028
Table 6-1. Carbonated Beverage Retail Sales, 2018-2028 (million dollars, million 1.5-gallon equivalents, and percent change)
Category Sales
Figure 6-1. Carbonated Beverage Retail Dollar Sales Share by Category, 2019-28 (percent of total)
Table 6-2. Carbonated Beverage Retail Sales by Category, 2016-2028 (million dollars and percent change)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Soda Consumption: Diet Up, Regular Down Since 2019
Table 6-3. Consumption Rates for Carbonated Beverages, 2013-2023 (percent of adults)
Cans Gain but Plastic Bottles Still Popular Despite Environmental Concerns
Table 6-4. Consumption Rates for Carbonated Beverages by Packaging Form, 2013-2023 (percent of adults that drink carbonated beverages)
Diet Cola Drinkers Consume More
Table 6-5. Glasses of Selected Carbonated Beverages Drunk in Last 7 Days, 2013-2023 (percent of adults that drinks regular and diet colas)
Selected Differences Among Coca-Cola, Coke Zero Sugar, and Diet Coke Drinkers
Table 6-6. Demographic Characteristics of Coke Classic, Coke Zero Sugar, and Diet Coke Drinkers, 2023 (Index)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Ignite the Senses
Healthier+
Comfort & Nostalgia
Hard Soda
CBD-Infused

CHAPTER 7: COFFEE AND READY-TO-DRINK COFFEE

SALES OUTLOOK
Market to Reach $22 Billion in 2028
Table 7-1. Coffee Retail Sales, 2018-2028 (million dollars, million ounces, and percent change)
Category/Segment Sales
Figure 7-1. Coffee Retail Dollar Shares by Category and Segment, 2023-2028 (percent of total)
Table 7-2. Coffee Retail Sales: By Category and Segment, 2016-2028 (million dollars and percent change)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
RTD Coffee Continues Gaining; Ground Coffee Consumed Most
Table 7-3. Consumption Rates for Coffee Segments, 2013-2023 (percent of households)
Loose Grinds Still Widely Preferred Over Single-Serve Pods
Table 7-4. Forms of Ground Coffee Used Most Often, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink ground coffee)
Consumers Overwhelmingly Prefer Unflavored Ground and Whole Bean Coffee
Table 7-5. Flavor of Ground Coffee Drunk Most Often, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink ground and whole bean coffee)
Coffee Consumption Faltering
Table 7-6. Cups of Ground Coffee (Regular or Decaf) Drunk Per Average Day, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink ground coffee)
Consumption of Customized and Specialty Drinks Drive Coffee Appliance Sales
Table 7-7. Coffee Appliances Bought in Last 12 Months, 2013-2023 (percent of households)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Mindful Indulgence
Ignite the Senses
Comfort & Nostalgia
Influencer Inspired
Coffee Shop Experience At Home or On-The-Go
Single-Serve Options Beyond Pods
Hard Coffee
Responsible NPD
CBD-Infused

CHAPTER 8: DAIRY AND DAIRY ALTERNATIVE BEVERAGES

SALES OUTLOOK
Total Market to Reach Nearly $32 Billion in 2028
Table 8-1. Dairy and Dairy Alternative Beverages Retail Sales, 2018-2028 (million dollars and percent change)
Volume Sales
Table 8-2. Dairy and Dairy Alternative Beverages Market Retail Volume Sales, 2018-2028 (million pints)
Category and Segment Sales
Figure 8-1. Dairy vs. Dairy Alternative Beverages Retail Dollar Shares, 2023, 2028 (percent of total)
Table 8-3. Dairy and Dairy Alternative Beverages Retail Sales: By Category and Segment, 2016-2028 (million dollars and percent change)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Dairy Milk Consumption Decreasing; Milk Alternatives Increasing
Table 8-4. Consumption Rates for Dairy and Dairy Alternative Beverages, 2013-2023 (percent of households)
Most Milk Drinkers Prefer 2% and Whole
Table 8-5. Kind of Milk Consumed in Last 6 Months, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink fresh milk)
Specialty Milk Consumption on The Rise
Table 8-6. Type of Milk Consumed in Last 6 Months, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink milk)
Plastic Jugs Most Popular by Far; Carton Use Has Increased
Table 8-7. Milk Package Used in Last 6 Months, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink milk)
Almond Milk Still Dominant But Oat Milk Gains
Table 8-8. Type of Non-Dairy Milk Alternatives Consumed in Last 6 Months, 2016-2023 (percent of households that drink non-dairy milk alternatives)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Alternatives with Real Dairy Attributes
Animal-Free Dairy
Healthier+
Kid-Focused
Ignite the Senses
Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 9: ENERGY AND SPORTS DRINKS

SALES OUTLOOK
Market to Reach $53 Billion in 2028
Table 9-1. Energy and Sports Drinks Retail Sales, 2018-2028 (million dollars, million ounces, and percent change)
Category and Segment Sales
Figure 9-1. Energy vs. Sports Drinks Retail Dollar Shares, 2023-2028 (percent of total)
Table 9-2. Energy and Sports Drinks Retail Sales: By Segment, 2016-2028 (million dollars and percent change)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Low Penetration for Energy Drinks Especially
Table 9-3. Consumption Rates for Energy Drinks/Shots and Sports Drinks, 2013-2023 (percent of adults)
Drinks Dominate, Shots Remain Smaller Niche
Table 9-4. Forms of Energy Drinks/Shots Drunk, 2013-2023 (percent of adults that drinks energy drinks/shots)
Energy Drinkers Tend to Consume More Units
Table 9-5. Number of Energy Drinks/Shots and Sports Drinks Drunk in Last 30 Days, 2023 (percent of adults that drinks energy drinks/shots and sports drinks)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Healthier+
Rapid Hydration
Ignite the Senses
Target Gamers

CHAPTER 10: JUICES

SALES OUTLOOK
Market Increasing to Nearly $24 Billion in 2028
Table 10-1. Juice Retail Sales, 2018-2028 (million dollars, million ounces, and percent change)
Category Sales
Figure 10-1. Juices Retail Dollar Shares by Category, 2019-2023 (percent of total)
Table 10-2. Juice Market Retail Dollar Sales by Category, 2016-2028 (million dollars and percent change)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Other Fruit Juice/Drink Consumption Strongest
Table 10-3. Consumption Rates for Juices by Product, 2013-2023 (percent of US households)
Glass Bottles Experience Biggest Gains
Table 10-4. Package Type of Orange Juice Drunk in Last 6 Months, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink orange juice)
Most Households Drink 2 or Fewer Glasses of OJ Daily
Table 10-5. Glasses of Orange Juice Drunk by Household on Average Day, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink orange juice)
Apple Remains Favorite Flavor Ahead of Cranberry
Table 10-6. Flavors of Other Fruit Juices/Drinks Drunk Most Often, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink other fruit juices/drinks)
Most Households Drink 2 or Fewer Glasses of Other Fruit Juice/Drinks Daily
Table 10-7. Glasses of Other Fruit Juices/Drinks Drunk by Household on Average Day, 2013-2023 (percent of US households that drink other fruit juices/drinks)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Healthier-For-You
Healthier-For-Kids
Mindful Indulgence
Ignite the Senses
Hard Juices
CBD-Infused

CHAPTER 11: TEA AND READY-TO-DRINK TEA

SALES OUTLOOK
Market to Exceed $11 Billion in 2028
Table 11-1. Tea and RTD Tea Retail Sales, 2018-2028 (million dollars, million ounces, and percent change)
Category and Segment Sales
Figure 11-1. Tea and RTD Tea Category and Segment Retail Dollar Shares, 2022, 2028 (percent of total)
Table 11-2. Tea and RTD Tea Retail Sales by Category and Segment, 2016-2028 (million dollars and percent change)
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Tea Bags Still Most Popular Despite Declines
Table 11-3. Consumption Rates for Tea, 2013-2023 (percent of households)
Tea Drinkers Overwhelmingly Prefer Caffeinated
Table 11-4. Type of Tea Drunk in Last 6 Months, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink tea bags/packages)
Regular Size Bags Overwhelmingly Preferred Format
Table 11-5. Form of Tea Drunk in Last 6 Months, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink tea bags/packages)
Herbal Tea Consumption Increases Over Last Three Years
Table 11-6. Flavor of Tea Drunk in Last 6 Months, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink tea bags/packages)
Most Hot Tea Drinkers Drink 2 or Fewer Cups Daily
Table 11-7. Cups of Tea Drunk by Household on Average Day, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink tea bags/packages)
Flavored RTD Iced Tea Overwhelmingly Preferred
Table 11-8. Type of RTD Iced Tea/Kombucha Drunk Most Often, 2013-2023 (percent of adults that drink RTD iced tea/kombucha)
Most Consume 1-2 RTD Teas Weekly; Relatively High Percentage Drink 9+
Table 11-9. Drinks/Glasses of RTD Tea/Kombucha Drunk by Household in Last 7 Days, 2013-2023 (percent of households that drink RTD tea/kombucha)
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Healthier+
Ignite the Senses
Hard Teas
CBD-Infused

Methodology

The information in this report was obtained from both primary and secondary research. Primary research included consultation with industry sources and visits to retail stores. Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business, and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports. Estimates of market size and company performance are based on various sources, including reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, relevant publications, and other market research sources. The analysis in this report also draws, as a background source, on retail sales tracking data as available from Circana (formerly IRI) and Nielsen (for mass-market channels), and SPINS (for the natural channel).

The consumer analysis largely draws on three primary sources of data:

The March 2024 National Online Consumer Survey, which includes a panel of 1,500 US adults (age 18 and older) balanced to the national population on primary demographic measures such as age group, gender, geographic region, marital status, race/ethnicity, presence or absence of children in the household, and household income. The November-December 2023 survey (panel of 1,547 adults), September-October 2023 survey (panel of 1,500 adults), May 2023 survey (panel of 1,500 adults), March 2023 survey (panel of 1,500 adults), the December 2022 survey (panel of 2,000 adults), November 2022 survey (panel of 2,000 adults), August 2022 survey (panel of 2,000 adults), May 2022 survey (panel of 1,799 adults), February 2022 survey (panel of 2,000 adults), November-December 2021 survey (panel of 1,500 adults), October-November 2021 survey (panel of 1,690 adults), August-September 2021 survey (panel of 2,000 adults), June 2021 survey (panel of 2,014 adults), February-March 2021 survey (panel of 2,046 US adults), November-December 2020 survey (panel of 2,000 US adults), August 2020 survey (panel of 1,519 US adults), and April-May 2020 survey (panel of 1,500 US adults) are also used.
The Fall 2023 MRI National Study and other survey years going back to 2013 are booklet-based surveys conducted across tens of thousands of respondents selected by address-based sampling to represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the US adult population (age 18+).
The International Food Information Council Foundation’s (IFIC) 2023, 2022 and 2021 Food & Health Surveys provide valuable insight into consumers’ perspectives on food purchasing decisions, diet and lifestyle choices, and health benefits of foods, along with insights on other pertinent topics.

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Table of Contents

Methodology

The consumer analysis largely draws on three primary sources of data:

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