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Maldives Country Report 2024: Spotlight on Tourism, Construction and Real-Estate

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    Country Profile

  • 45 Pages
  • January 2024
  • Region: Maldives
  • Research Intelligence Unit
  • ID: 4849540

The Republic of Maldives in the Indian Ocean, made up of more than 1,100 coral islands, is blessed with a spectacular geography which has resulted in its evolution as a paradise for tourism. The country is at an advantage in terms of attracting visitors, including celebrities and billionaires, from all corners of the world. Since the industry’s beginning in 1972, the natural splendour of the Maldives has spurred tourism growth as the primary driver of the economy. The cross-pollinating nature of tourism and the role it plays in the economy becomes apparent when we note that this sector contributes a large percentage to many economic indicators.

The country has also evolved a rich social and business culture and continues to attract much talent as it leads the region with sustained economic growth. Despite being one of the most tourism dependent economies in the world, the archipelago has managed to swiftly shrug off recent external shocks and make great strides in its GDP growth rates in recent years.

According to the World Bank, real GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2023. A total of 1,878,537 arrivals were recorded in 2023 which represents the highest number of tourist visits in the island’s history. This remarkable achievement is made despite a notable decline in arrivals from several European markets. The latter has been compensated for by a resurgent Russian market as well as from China reopening for outward travel. However, risks to global travel remain given the evolving geo-political landscape. Moreover, as the world emerges from a period of inflation, further volatility greets 2024 as conflicts and trade disruptions loom on the horizon. Hence it is more important than ever to have a deep and timely understanding of both local and global developments.

This report, which highlights three key areas; tourism, construction and real estate, has been compiled with the use of both primary and secondary research and data gathering. Our research team has also drawn on our real estate databases that date back to 2014 when our team conducted a baseline survey with boots on the ground going from building to building in order to count the stock of residential, commercial and retail real estate stock in Male and Hulhumale.

In compiling this extensive report we have examined the current and future health of the country’s economy and included a very detailed look at hospitality, construction and real estate as these three sectors are closely entwined and interdependent. They are also the primary driver of FDI into the Maldives. For example, ongoing mega-infrastructure projects like the Greater Male Connectivity project and the Velana airport expansion have a direct and tangible impact on all three sectors.

Where real estate is concerned, there have been recent concerns on the impact of recent government policies such as the Binveriya scheme as well as a sharp rise in apartment stock in Hulhumale. More specifically, investors and property owners have aired concerns on the potential impact this could have on apartment values and rental yields. Using property databases that span ten years, the report takes an insightful look at the potential impact of these developments on the current and future property market.

This latest report of the Maldives publications is aimed at quenching the thirst for reliable and timely economic analysis and market intelligence on the part of local and international business leaders, investors, resort developers and property developers. The contents will also be of value to policymakers, the corporate world, academia and generally anyone interested in learning more about the past, present and future of this fascinating economy that is unique in so many ways.

Table of Contents

1. MACROECONOMY AND INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
1.1 Tourism continues to spur GDP
1.2 Sector-wise growth
1.3 Inflation in check
1.4 Exchange rate: Pegged to stability?
1.5 The external sector
1.6 FDI Recovers
1.7 Reserves in good health
1.8 Risks on the horizon

2. THE TOURISM SECTOR
2.1 The primary driver
2.2 Accommodating growth
2.3 Underlying trends
2.4 Tourism taxes
2.5 Cross-country comparisons
2.6 Outlook and risk assessment

3. CONSTRUCTION SECTOR
3.1 Demand drivers
3.1.1 Tourism infrastructure
3.1.2 Infrastructure development
3.1.3 Housing
3.1.4 Environmental challenges
3.2 Challenges
3.2.1 Topography and environmental impacts
3.2.2 Remoteness
3.2.3 Market conditions
3.3 International players
3.4 Regulatory environment
3.5 Expansion trajectory

4. REAL ESTATE IN THE MALDIVES
4.1 Landscape ensures market incline
4.2 Commercial office property
4.3 Retail property
4.4 Bare lands
4.5 Apartments: Has supply caught up with demand?

5. RESIDENTIAL APARTMENTS IN MALE
5.1 Supply
5.2 Demand Drivers
5.2.1 High Net Worth Individuals (HNWI)
5.2.2 Diaspora
5.2.3 Foreigners and Expats
5.2.4 Investors
5.3 Rental market
5.4 Market Forecast

6. HULHUMALE - THE GAME CHANGER
6.1 Background
6.2 Investor-driven
6.3 The infrastructure drive
6.4 Supply - a steep curve
6.5 Demand
6.6 The rental market
6.6.1 Significant supply additions from 2024-2027
6.6.2 Impact of land policy
6.6.3 Impact on rental yields
6.6.3.1 Urbanisation
6.6.3.2 Demand from expats will continue
6.6.3.3 Infrastructure development drive

7. INVESTING IN THE MALDIVES
7.1 FDI culture
7.2 Investing in the Maldives
7.2.1 Foreign direct investment
7.2.2 Foreign portfolio investment
7.3 FDI application process
7.4 Available routes for foreign investment

8. OUTLOOK AND FORECAST
ANNEX A:
Rental Survey, April 2020
Maldives Bureau of Statistics (MBS)

FIGURES
Figure 1: Quarterly Real GDP and tourist arrival growth in the Maldives 2021 Q1-2023 Q2
Figure 2: Maldives Real GDP Share by ‘Tourism Sector’ - 2023 Q2
Figure 3: Inflation in the Maldives from May 2022 - October 2023
Figure 4: Average exchange rate (MVR per USD) October 2022 - October 2023
Figure 5: Trade activities in the Maldives December 2022 - October 2023
Figure 6: Maldives total Exports and Imports 2017 - 2023
Figure 7: Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) inflows 2018 - 2022 in the Maldives.
Figure 8: Maldives Foreign Currency Reserves 2019 Q1 - 2023 Q3
Figure 9: Gross International Reserves October 2022 - October 2023 in the Maldives.
Figure 10: Accommodation Facilities Comparison October 2018 - 2023 in the Maldives
Figure 11: Accommodation Facilities in the Maldives January 2020 - October 2023
Figure 12: Bed nights and bed night capacity January 2020 - September 2023
Figure 13: Number of resort units by Atoll in the Maldives
Figure 14: Average room rate per USD per night by Atoll in the Maldives
Figure 15: Total tourist arrivals in the Maldives 2018 Q1 - 2023 Q3
Figure 16: Quarterly occupancy rate in the Maldives 2021 Q1 - 2023 Q3
Figure 17: Bed nights and bed night capacity in the Maldives 2021 Q1 - 2023 Q3
Figure 18: TGST and Green Tax shares in total tax revenue January 2022 - August 2023
Figure 19: Cross-country comparison of the contribution of Tourism to GDP 2021
Figure 20: Cross-country comparison of Tourism Services as a share of total exports 2021
Figure 21: Cross-country comparison of the growth of tourist arrivals 2018 - 2022
Figure 22: Cross-country comparison of tourism receipts growth 2018 - 2022
Figure 23: Maldives GDP from Construction 2014 - 2023
Figure 24: Volume of construction activity 2021 Q1 - 2023
Figure 25: Number of employees in the construction sector in the Maldives 2021 Q1 - 2023 Q2
Figure 26: Number of luxury and social housing units under construction in Hulhumale
Figure 27: Construction-related imports (USD million) in the Maldives
Figure 28: Average lease rate USD/sq. ft
Figure 29: Average bare land price USD per sq. ft
Figure 30: Male apartment supply 1995 - 2025
Figure 31: Semi-luxury rental rates - upper and lower bands
Figure 32: Hulhumale Population
Figure 33: Hulhumale luxury apartment supply 2016 - 2029
Figure 34: Hulhumale total apartment supply 2011 - 2029, inclusive of mid-range apartments
Figure 35: Hulhumale total apartment supply by phase
Figure 36: Hulhumale social housing apartment supply by phase
Figure 37: Transactions: USD per sq. ft apartment price in Hulhumale 2016 - 2024
Figure 38: Total apartment supply at the end of 2016, 2023, and 2027
Figure 39: Maldives Urbanisation
Figure 40: Average rental USD price of a semi-luxury 3 BR apartment, lower bound and upper bound

TABLES
Table 1: Peak lease rates
Table 2: Year-average rental price of a semi-luxury 3 BR apartment (USD) lower bound upper bound
Table 3: Available Routes for Foreign Investment