Shotgun and Rifles - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts 2019 - 2029

The Shotgun and Rifles Market size is estimated at USD 5.95 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 7.37 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.36% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

The rampant incidents of terror attacks have resulted in the modernization of the weapons of law enforcement agencies to prevent such incidences effectively and minimize loss of life. This has driven the demand for rifles and shotguns and is expected to bolster the procurement initiatives during the forecast period. The rise in geopolitical conflicts has driven the procurement of new equipment as part of ongoing soldier modernization programs, the induction of heavily armored vehicles such as main battle tanks (MBTs) and armored personnel carriers (APCs) has driven the demand for Armor-piercing weaponry, such as anti-material rifles. The rising defense budget of various countries allows them to procure customized weapons as required to drive the market.

Technological advancements in automation in bullet loading, self-steering bullets, and cutting-edge technologies in sniper accessories are all expected to make rifles more efficient and accurate in future years. However, incorporating stringent gun ownership laws by various governments will restrict gun manufacturing companies from entering the shotgun and rifle market.

Also, various governments and regions' stringent regulatory frameworks and firearm laws restrain the market's growth, especially for civilian end users. These regulations can include background checks, waiting periods, and limits on firearm ownership, which can affect market accessibility and sales. Compliance with these regulations poses challenges for manufacturers and buyers in the market.

Shotgun & Rifles Market Trends

Semi-Automatic/Automatic Segment to Have the Highest Growth Rate

The utilization of semi-automatic/automatic weapons has increased due to the rapid production of sophisticated weapons and trends linked to the modernization of defense equipment in key developing/developed countries. In addition, the need for precision weapon systems has increased the focus on advanced weapons to counter growing incidents of terrorism. Introducing high-tech, light automatic, and intelligent weapons also fuels the market growth. For instance, The US military maintains stocks of various foreign-made arms for use by special operations forces (SOF) in training exercises to arm those replicating the enemy or local partner forces and for different research and development and test and evaluation purposes.

In April 2022, SIG Sauer Inc. won a 10-year production contract from the US Army to supply two new soldier rifles: XM5 and OMC250. For soldiers involved in close-quarters combat, the XM5 will eventually replace the M4/M4A1 carbine rifle, while the XM250 will replace the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon. Both new rifles will also use the new 6.8 mm standard cartridge family of ammunition and a new fire control system. The initial delivery order on the contract is USD 20.4 million for weapons and ammunition that will undergo testing, and the contract's total value is USD 4.5 billion. Such developments will boost the segment growth during the forecast period.

North America to Dominate During the Forecast Period

North America is currently the largest market for rifles and shotguns, and the region is also expected to continue its dominance during the forecast period. Most of the demand for rifles is from the US military. The US Army’s 2023 fiscal year budget request calls for the service to acquire 17,164 fire control modules, 1,704 automatic rifles, and 16,348 rifles. The US military maintains stocks of foreign-made arms for use by special operations forces (SOF) in training exercises to arm those replicating the enemy or local partner forces and also for different research and development and test and evaluation purposes.

Furthermore, the US Army plans to buy a mix of more than 120,000 new light machine guns and rifles, built around new ammunition, to replace both the M4 carbine and M249 Squad Automatic Weapon for its soldiers. The Next Generation Squad Weapon (NGSW) program was designed to replace the standard rifle and squad machine gun for close-combat units such as infantry, scouts, and combat engineers in the Army. In addition to military procurement, incidents such as mass shootings have propelled the market for civilian and homeland security procurements of rifles and their ammunition in the region. For instance, in November 2022, The US Army planned to purchase Russian-made 5.45x39mm AK-74 assault rifles or copies made in other countries. The Army Contracting Command-New Jersey (CCNJ) issued a notice for the US Government's interest in AK-74-type Kalashnikov assault rifles and support parts suppliers. Thus, growing expenditure on the defense sector and rising procurement of firearms for military and civil applications drive the market growth across the country.

Shotgun & Rifles Industry Overview

The shotgun and rifle market is fragmented, with several local and global players holding significant shares in the market. Some of the key players in the market are Sturm, Ruger & Co., Inc., Sig Sauer, Inc., Heckler & Koch GmbH, FN HERSTAL, and Browning International S.A. The key OEMs focus on developing advanced products that help them attract new customers. The manufacturers are developing different parts of the weapons with materials that will be of best use, even in hostile conditions.

For instance, in 2022, Sig Sauer and the US Government conducted numerous technical tests and a Soldier touchpoint concerning the most recent weapon configuration. This engagement aimed to obtain user acceptance, load carriage, and integration into the XM157 fire control optic developed by Vortex Optics Inc., which would be mounted on any XM7 or XM250 automatic rifle. Such contracts will help the players tap into new regional markets, thereby increasing their market presence and opportunities for growth.

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