Singapore Retail Banking: Opportunities and Risks to 2023

Summary

Singapore’s total loan balances outstanding (including credit card balances, personal loan balances and residential mortgage balances outstanding) recorded a CAGR of 2.7% during 2014-18, to reach S$328.0bn ($240.8bn) in 2018. The majority of the Singaporean loan balances outstanding are from home loans; residential mortgage balances outstanding accounted for 75.1% in 2018, followed by personal loans (21.3%) and credit cards (3.5%). Mortgage loans was the fastest-growing segment during the review period, contributing to the gradual increase in overall household debt. However, the introduction of stricter regulations by the government such as the Total Debt Servicing ratio (TDSR) moderated the growth of household debt.

Additionally, a fall in the performance of key sectors, coupled with geo-political tensions and trade war between US & China, are leading to an increase in economic uncertainty, and therefore affecting overall economic growth. Despite these headwinds, government schemes such as the Repayment Assistance Scheme (RAS) are easing the availability of credit for consumers. Consequently, the publisher estimates total loan balances outstanding to grow at CAGR of 2.8% over 2019-23.

With gross domestic savings above 50% of GDP throughout the review period (2014-18), the country’s retail deposits balance witnessed a CAGR of 5.8%, despite record-low interest rates on deposits, reflecting consumers’ preference to save rather than spend. Furthermore, an increase in wages amid low unemployment further drove growth in Singaporean retail deposits base.

Based on our proprietary datasets, this report analyzes the Singaporelending market, with a focus on the consumer lending segment. The report discusses in detail the credit card, personal, and mortgage loan markets, covering market size, competitors’ market shares, and survey insights. The report also provides a market overview and insights on the retail deposit segment. In addition, it covers the key digital disruptors in Singaporeretail lending segment.

Scope

• Residential mortgage loans in Singapore registered a review-period CAGR of 3.3%. The period saw a series of restrictions being introduced by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to exert control on rising household debt.
• The personal loans market recorded a review-period CAGR of 1.0%. Slow growth was a direct outcome of the restrictions introduced by the MAS between 2014 and 2018. However, the government’s schemes to support consumers are expected to keep the market growth steady.
• Credit card balances outstanding recorded a CAGR of 2.7% during 2014-18. Despite high credit card penetration, low growth can be attributed to debt-averse nature consumers, as well as the introduction of stricter credit limits by the MAS.

Reasons to Buy

• Make strategic decisions using top-level historic and forecast data onthe Singaporeanretail lending industry.
• Identify the most promising lending segment.
• Receive detailed insights into lending in Singapore, including consumerlending.
• Understand the changing market and competitive dynamics by learning about new competitors and recent deals in the retail lending space.
• Receive comprehensive coverage of the retail deposit market in Singapore.