Mortgage Lending in Poland, 2025-2027

Poland’s mortgage market is poised for steady growth through 2027, supported by sustained economic momentum and improving housing affordability. Despite the lack of confirmed government interventions for first-time buyers, moderating property prices and rising disposable incomes are expected to sustain lending volumes.

Under a baseline scenario (assuming no major policy shifts), outstanding mortgage balances are projected to reach PLN 647 billion by 2027, with the mortgage-to-GDP ratio recovering from 13% to 15%. A critical risk to this outlook remains the trajectory of interest rates. The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) faces continued pressure to sustain a restrictive monetary policy to offset expansionary fiscal measures. Any recalibration of rates - whether upward or downward - would materially influence borrowing costs, affordability, and ultimately, lending activity. 

The latest edition of the research report "Mortgage Lending in Poland 2025-2027" builds on the success of earlier editions and offers an updated perspective on emerging trends in the Polish mortgage lending market. As with previous versions, the analysis encompasses various aspects, including market size, competitive structure, market shares, and lending margins. Additionally, a mid-term forecast of mortgage outstanding value through 2027 has been included. Research findings have been presented in a structured and logical way in the form of a horizontal presentation on 25 slides.