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Mortgage Lending in Poland, 2025-2027

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    Report

  • 25 Pages
  • March 2025
  • Region: Poland
  • Inteliace Research
  • ID: 5328633

Poland’s mortgage market is poised for steady growth through 2027, supported by sustained economic momentum and improving housing affordability. Despite the lack of confirmed government interventions for first-time buyers, moderating property prices and rising disposable incomes are expected to sustain lending volumes.

Under a baseline scenario (assuming no major policy shifts), outstanding mortgage balances are projected to reach PLN 647 billion by 2027, with the mortgage-to-GDP ratio recovering from 13% to 15%. A critical risk to this outlook remains the trajectory of interest rates. The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) faces continued pressure to sustain a restrictive monetary policy to offset expansionary fiscal measures. Any recalibration of rates - whether upward or downward - would materially influence borrowing costs, affordability, and ultimately, lending activity. 

The latest edition of the research report "Mortgage Lending in Poland 2025-2027" builds on the success of earlier editions and offers an updated perspective on emerging trends in the Polish mortgage lending market. As with previous versions, the analysis encompasses various aspects, including market size, competitive structure, market shares, and lending margins. Additionally, a mid-term forecast of mortgage outstanding value through 2027 has been included. Research findings have been presented in a structured and logical way in the form of a horizontal presentation on 25 slides.

Table of Contents

Executive summary

1. Residential real estate stock & prices

Slide 1: New dwellings completed, starts, permits, 2010-2024
Slide 2: New dwellings completed by regions, 2024
Slide 3: Residential real estate prices in key cities, 2015-2024
Slide 4: Value and volume of transactions involving real estate, 2017-2023

2. Mortgage lending

Slide 5: Total outstanding lending to households by type of loan, 2020-2024
Slide 6: Mortgage loans to households outstanding, local vs. foreign currency, 2020-2024
Slide 7: Mortgage lending penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2024 Q3
Slide 8: Mortgage lending in Poland vs. Europe- market size vs. growth, 2022-2024 Q3
Slide 9: Number of new mortgage loans, value of new loans, average new loan size, 2020-2024
Slide 10: New sales of mortgage loans to individuals monthly/annual averages: 2019- Dec.2024
Slide 11: New mortgage loans by size, and by LTV, 2019 - 2024 Q3
Slide 12: Top banks by outstanding mortgage loans, 2024 Q3 vs. 2023 Q3
Slide 13: New mortgage contracts - split by type of interest rate applied (fixed ARM vs. variable), 2021 Q4- 2024 Q3
Slide 14: Average lending margins evolution - PLN loans, 2020-2024
Slide 15: The evolution of mortgage loan NPLs, 2022-2024

3. Forecast

Slide 16: Mortgage loans - outstanding value forecast (PLN, FX loans), GDP penetration, 2025-2027(F)

Methodological notes

Companies Mentioned

  • PKO Bank Polski
  • Bank Pekao
  • mBank
  • Santander
  • Millennium
  • ING Bank