Toy Industry Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2021

Key Observations:

• Despite historic early 2021 gains, 2021 will not be a replay of 2020 with its industry-wide double-digit increases. Chaos in the supply chain and inflation will subdue revenue due to product shortages.
• CEOs with whom we have spoken anticipate retail price increases in the 25% range.
• Supply chain challenges will continue through 2021 and will soften the final numbers in the 2021 4th quarter.
• Sales of Games, Puzzles, Outdoor/Summer Toys, Construction, and Dolls grew exponentially in 2020, creating a “perfect storm” of growth.
• Therefore, toy companies will have difficult 2020 comps to match in 2021. Sources tallied the toy industry’s growth in 2020 between plus 16% (NPD) and plus 8% (analysts’ consensus).
• Store inventory is lean, while in-home inventory in specific categories (board games and construction toys, to name two) is heavy.
• Hasbro needs the big screen to improve its licensed product movie tie-in sales.
• Mattel is well-positioned for continued growth.
• Spin Master’s Paw Patrol refuses to die.
• Creating toy-based, in-home play environments will continue to be important. “Backyard Envy” is real.
• Because of uncertainties due to Covid and the supply chain, we are cautious about how venturesome toy companies will be releasing new products in 2021.
• New video game consoles take revenues from the sales of traditional toys. Therefore, if the shortage of video game consoles in the 4th Quarter of last year resolves itself in 2021, it will have a negative revenue impact on the global toy market.
• Toy companies are across the board unhappy with Amazon due to the high costs of business.
• Toy companies are not moving their manufacturing out of China for the foreseeable future.
• The toy industry has concerns about how in-home movie watching will impact the sales of movie toy tie-in products.
• Declines in the birthrate, accelerated by Covid, will provide challenges to the toy industry over the coming years.
• Disruptions in the supply chain, political strains between the West and China, and the crackdown in Hong Kong, the home of the toy industry, are particularly challenging for the toy industry, which relies upon China for 86% of its toys.
• Lego and Barbie continue to be the most in-demand toys.