Mexico Rooftop Solar Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2022 - 2027)

Rooftop solar is one of the clean technologies that can produce electricity directly at the point of consumption. The Mexico rooftop solar market is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 16% over the forecast period. Driving factors such as high electricity prices and power shortages are turning the Mexican consumers' and government's attention towards distributed generation, i.e., rooftop solar PV, to assuage strains on their national grid networks. In addition, the market witnessed significant growth, mainly due to drastic price drops in modules and other system components. However, the availability and cost of financing are likely to hinder the market growth in the country.

Key Highlights

• The residential segment is expected to dominate in the Mexico rooftop solar market during the forecast period.
• Mexico has committed to a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 22% by 2030. As part of this goal, clean distributed generation is slated to play a crucial role in Mexico’s energy landscape and is a key priority for policymakers, which, in turn, likely to provide an opportunity in the market.
• Increasing deployment of solar energy in the country is expected to drive the Mexico solar rooftop market over the forecast period.

Key Market Trends

Residential Segment to Dominate the Market

• The Mexican government aims to produce more than one-third of its electricity from clean energy over the coming years and cut carbon emissions by 22% by 2030. Hence, the dependency of the solar PV rooftop system in the residential segment is expected to grow further.
• Distributed solar power generation registered significant growth rate during the period 2018-2019; it grew to an installed capacity of 693 MW from 94,893 rooftop solar systems in June 2019, up from 570 MW installed in December 2018 from 85,000 installations.
• The residential segment with high power consumption is one of the main drivers in the Mexican rooftop solar market. In addition, a combination of a massive solar resource with a related reduction in PV system costs has contributed to fast growth in this segment in Mexico.
• This growth is expected to continue unabated, driven by net-metering and net-billing schemes that are particularly attractive in unsubsidized tariff consumers from the residential segment. Under this scheme, the residential user meets their own consumption and excess solar energy is credited against future consumption, or net billing, where excesses are sold to the grid.
• Furthermore, IDB invest, a member of the IDB Group, supports the growth of the distributed solar generation in Mexico. The financing is likely to accelerate the deployment of a portfolio of more than 2500 residential solar rooftop power systems, with a generation capacity of over 8MW and producing zero emissions.

Increasing Deployment of Solar Energy is Expected to Drive the Market

• Mexico´s national policy includes clean energy goals. The ultimate aim of these goals is to increase the proliferation of renewable energies as a percentage of Mexico’s total electricity generation.
• Solar energy has established itself as one of the renewable energies with the largest presence in Mexico. The country’s solar PV installed capacity was 4440 MW in 2019 and holds a growth rate of more 70% from 2018.
• As of 2019, Mexico’s renewable power generation has reached 37.8 TWh, with the highest generation. Among this, solar energy accounted for 12.4 TWh of power generation in the country. Hence, an increase in the share of solar power generation in the countries energy mix is likely to have a positive impact on the rooftop solar market over the forecast period.

Competitive Landscape

The Mexico rooftop solar market is moderately consolidated. Some of the key players in the market include Enlight Mexico, Bright Mexico, Tesla Inc, SunPower Corporation, and Positive Energy Solar.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support