Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Commercial Vehicle (CV) Growth Opportunities

Sales Volume in the Region is Expected to more than Double by the End of the Decade, Driven by Rising Infrastructure and Economic Activity

The overall commercial vehicle volume in ASEAN is expected to reach 1.7 million units by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.9% between 2020 and 2030. The region has experienced rapid industrialization, moving away from agriculture and toward the manufacturing of electrical and electronic components and machinery. Post the pandemic, there has been a revival in the commodities markets globally, with demand outpacing supply, resulting in higher prices and exports in the region. These factors are expected to be the major drivers for commercial truck demand in the near and long terms.

Thailand and Indonesia contribute to 75% of the region’s CV volumes, with Thailand being a major market for pickup trucks. It also contributes to nearly 60% of the region's LCV sales. All major countries in the region have incentivized the production of automobiles in the region. The region shows great potential to become a major automotive manufacturing hub that exports vehicles to other parts of the world. Companies are expected to take advantage of government support toward manufacturing, help create common platforms for their vehicles across different regions, as well as scale up operations quickly to achieve maximum profitability.

The market is dominated by Japanese OEMs that make up three-fourths of all commercial vehicle sales in the region. Toyota, Isuzu, and Nissan-Mitsubishi, the top 3 sellers alone contribute to two-thirds of the market. Many Chinese OEMs, such as Foton, SAIC, Dongfeng, FAW, and BYD, have already established their presence in the region and are expected to compete aggressively against Japanese OEMs in the coming years. Higher infrastructure spending and increased construction and trade activities in the region are expected to be the major drivers for heavy-duty truck demand. The growing ecosystem of truck OEMs, bodybuilders, and fleets that will cater to this rising demand will have a positive impact in allied sectors (e.g., logistics).

Key Issues Addressed:

• What will be the size of the commercial truck market in the ASEAN from 2020 to 2030?
• Which are the major countries driving growth in the region?
• Which are the major OEMs dominating the CV market in the region?
• What is the powertrain mix, and how this is expected to evolve over the next decade?
• What key trends in each major country in the region are driving the demand for commercial trucks?