California Low Carbon Fuels Standard Outlook on Demand, Supply and Pricing of Credits

1.1 Emerging Carbon Intensity (CI) based clean fuel market landscape in North America
1.2 Regional clean fuels markets
1.3 Background and history of California Low Carbon Fuels Standard

2.1 Transportation role in California's emission profile
2.2 Carbon Intensity Distribution
2.3 Low Carbon Fuel Supply Assessment
2.4 Electric Vehicle Fleet Development
2.5 Credit generation and trading

3.1 LCFS CA Cumulative Bank is still increasing
3.2 Renewable diesel is the highest credit generator with electricity set to catch up
3.3 Electricity is in competition with Tier 1 pathways for credit generation
3.4 Renewable diesel, Electricity, Bio-CNG, & Ethanol are driving the credit bank
3.5 Corn and UCO are the major feedstock producing credits for all seasons
3.6 Across EV fleet LDV/MDV on road residential charging is leading the growth rate
3.7 CARBOB continues to be the largest deficit generator
3.8 Around 80% of deficits are from CARBOB
3.9 In the last one-month benchmark Price has increased to $75.5 with Spot prices at 75.15
3.10 Volume continues to stay elevated with credit prices dropping close to $62

4.1 Modeling the interplay impact on market forecast
4.2 Incentives from LCFS for different fuel types
4.3 Stack of other incentives from different markets on the West
Coast for renewable diesel

5.1 Lookup Table
5.2 Tier 1 Pathways
5.3 Tier 2 Pathways
5.4 Analysis of Pathways in CA LCFS

6.1 Ethanol
6.2 Biodiesel
6.3 Renewable Diesel

7.1 Key market variables at play in CA LCFS influencing supply and demand
7.2 CFS.CarbonOutlookTMModel
7.3 Scenarios
7.4 Feb 2023 Model Output
7.5 Discussion on model output

8.1 Location wise Lookup Pathways for different fuel type, feedstock & range of current CI
8.2 Location wise Tier 1 Pathways for different fuel type, feedstock, & range of current CI
8.3 Location wise Tier 3 Pathways for different fuel type, feedstock, & current CI
8.4 Company wise total number of pathways certified

Figure 1 Percentage of ZEV Sales in California and Advanced Clean Cars II Targets, Source: CEC ZEV Dashboard
Figure 2 Description of credit and deficit creation
Figure 3 Carbon Intensity based Clean Fuel Markets in North America
Figure 4: Vehicle Miles Travelled Per Person (Source: Office of Highway Policy Information)
Figure 5 Miles Travelled Forecasts- comparison with cCarbon model
Figure 6 Stringent CI reduction plans proposed in Scoping Plan
Figure 7 California State Emissions by Sector, Source: CARB
Figure 8 California overview of fuel wise GHG Emission distribution (in million kgs CO2eq) from the Transportation Sector gasoline fuel pool, 2022
Figure 9 California Average Carbon Intensity (CI) Distribution by Fuel Type
Figure 10 California Ethanol volumes and average CI ARB Quarterly Summary
Figure 11 California biodiesel and renewable volume shares of the diesel pool and their corresponding average CI values ARB Quarterly Summary
Figure 12 California bio- and fossil-LNG/CNG volumes and bio-CNG/LNGs contribution
Figure 13 California renewable content of natural gas transportation demand
Figure 14 California RNG feedstock volumes and bio-CNG CI
Figure 15 California electricity volume equivalents and credit generation
Figure 16 CA LCFS credit bank
Figure 17 CA LCFS credit bank by fuel types
Figure 18 CA LCFS credit bank by fuel types in percentages
Figure 19 CA LCFS credit generation by fuel types in the last quarter (2022Q3)
Figure 20 CA LCFS credit generation in different quarters (2011-2022)
Figure 21 CA LCFS credit generation from electricity path
Figure 22 CA LCFS deficit generation
Figure 23 CA LCFS deficit generation in percentages
Figure 24 CA LCFS deficit generation in the recent quarter
Figure 25 CA LCFS Gasoline and Diesel CI
Figure 26 Spot and benchmark prices for credits
Figure 27 Price and volume of credit transacted in CA LCFS
Figure 28 Value give back index ($/gal) for various biofuels. Starting from 2022Q4 $/Gal values are predicted
Figure 29 LCFS CA dollar per gallon of different fuels in last quarters
Figure 30 CFP OR dollar per gallon of different fuels in last quarters
Figure 31 Stacked incentives for different clean fuel programs from renewable diesel
Figure 32 Distribution of Pathways based on the CI
Figure 33 Range of CI for different pathways in CA LCFS
Figure 34 Ethanol production, consumption and capacity in US have been shown in lines; Consumption forecast for Canada, California, Oregon, and Washington. All the units are in million gallon/year
Figure 35 Biodiesel production, consumption and capacity in US have been shown in lines; Consumption forecast for Canada, California, Oregon, and Washington. All the units are in million gallon/year
Figure 36 Renewable Diesel, consumption and capacity in US have been shown in lines; Consumption forecast for Canada, California, Oregon, and Washington. All the units are in million gallon/year
Figure 37 Current 20% CI target and reported CI reduction in CA LCFS 50
Figure 38 Quarter wise ZEV growth in 2022 for California
Figure 39 Vehicle stock growth in year on year in California
Figure 40 CI of electricity grid year on year
Figure 41 % ZEV target for ACT II
Figure 42 Gasoline and EV growth in last years in California
Figure 43 CFS.CarbonOutlookTm model
Figure 44 Credit bank, credit generation, deficit generation and credit
price in: a) baseline; b) aggressive EV & biofuel, and; c) Delayed Rollout scenarios
Figure 45 CATS model and CarbonOutlook.CFS credit price comparison in terms of credit price predictions
Figure 46 CATS model and CarbonOutlook.CFS credit price comparison in terms of credit volume predictions

Table 1 Uncertainties in determining CI values for different pathways
Table 2 Pathways which came up and renewed in the last year
Table 3 Key variables considered for the modeling scenarios
Table 4 Forecast comparison between our 2022 and February 23 models