North America’s energy transition is gaining pace. The decreasing cost of renewable energy is driving the decline of thermal power in North America, with forecasts predicting that renewable energy will account for 65% of power capacity in 2035. Meanwhile increasing support from government policies and tax credits will facilitate the further growth of electric vehicles as well as less developed technologies such as low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture.
The energy transition in North America is gaining steam due to both the global momentum behind the sector and the Biden administration’s support. Recent laws such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and other initiatives are beginning to funnel billions of dollars into the sector and reduce the green premium on emerging technologies like green hydrogen and carbon capture. Thermal power’s presence within North America’s power mix will continue to decrease to 32% of power generation in 2035. In comparison, a strong build out will see renewables hold 65% of power capacity in 2035. As a result, emission free energy (including large hydropower) will account for 56% of the region’s power generation in the same year. A combination of government policies, tax credits, higher gasoline prices, and growing environmental consciousness among consumers will increase the demand for electric vehicles within the North America market. As a result, electric vehicles will exceed 75% of the light vehicle market in Canada and the US. The US will also remain a global leader in ethanol production, boosting North America’s renewable fuel production to 10,700 mmgy by 2030. North America is one of the world’s most active regions for carbon capture, accounting for 63% of global capacity in 2021. 156 projects of varying size are in the pipeline to commence operations by 2030. North America has also seen plenty of activity in the low-carbon hydrogen space, including the announcement of the world’s two largest projects in eastern Canada by Green Hydrogen International. In addition, North America is one of the most attractive regions for blue hydrogen due to abundant natural gas and favorable conditions for geological CO2 storage.
The energy transition in North America is gaining steam due to both the global momentum behind the sector and the Biden administration’s support. Recent laws such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and other initiatives are beginning to funnel billions of dollars into the sector and reduce the green premium on emerging technologies like green hydrogen and carbon capture. Thermal power’s presence within North America’s power mix will continue to decrease to 32% of power generation in 2035. In comparison, a strong build out will see renewables hold 65% of power capacity in 2035. As a result, emission free energy (including large hydropower) will account for 56% of the region’s power generation in the same year. A combination of government policies, tax credits, higher gasoline prices, and growing environmental consciousness among consumers will increase the demand for electric vehicles within the North America market. As a result, electric vehicles will exceed 75% of the light vehicle market in Canada and the US. The US will also remain a global leader in ethanol production, boosting North America’s renewable fuel production to 10,700 mmgy by 2030. North America is one of the world’s most active regions for carbon capture, accounting for 63% of global capacity in 2021. 156 projects of varying size are in the pipeline to commence operations by 2030. North America has also seen plenty of activity in the low-carbon hydrogen space, including the announcement of the world’s two largest projects in eastern Canada by Green Hydrogen International. In addition, North America is one of the most attractive regions for blue hydrogen due to abundant natural gas and favorable conditions for geological CO2 storage.
Key Highlights
- Gas has been the largest power generation source in North America since 2015, and will continue to produce 25% of the region’s electricity through to 2035.
- Coal power is set to decrease its generation share from 24% in 2018 to just 6% in 2035, while solar PV will increase from 2% to 26% across the same time frame.
- By 2035, nearly 56% of the region’s power generation is expected to be emissions free when large hydropower is included, up from 24% in 2018.
Scope
- Current leaders within North America’s Energy Transition
- Renewable Energy Policies and Economics
- Power Capacity Share Outlook
- Power Generation Share Outlook
- Renewable Generation Share by Country, 2021 - 2035
- Thermal Power: Decommissioning and Emissions
- Major Players in Renewable Power
- Electric Vehicle Production Forecasts for North America and EV’s Share of Light Vehicles
- Electric Vehicles Policies and Support
- Largest Active and Upcoming Renewable Refineries in North America
- Renewable Fuels Outlook
- Renewable Fuels Policies and Support
- CCUS capacity, 2018 - 2030 and Share by End Use Sector
- CCUS Policy
- CCUS Projects
- National Hydrogen Strategies of Canada and the US
- Hydrogen Capacity, 2018 - 2030
- Case Studies of Hydrogen End Use Sectors
Reasons to Buy
- Obtain the most up to date information on recent developments and policies for North America’s energy transition.
- Identify opportunities in upcoming projects involving electric vehicles, solar and wind power generation, EVs, CCS and hydrogen production in North America.
- Assess competitors based on their active and pipeline capacities for renewable energy generation, CCS/CCU projects and hydrogen projects
- Develop business strategies by identifying the most promising sectors for future growth
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Sector Grid and Leaders
- Power Outlook and Generation
- Renewable Energy: Policies and Economic
- Power Capacity Share Outlook
- Share of Power and Renewable Generation
- Share of Renewable Generation by Country
- Thermal Power Decommissioning and Emissions
- Major players: Solar vs Wind owners
- Electric Vehicles
- EV Production and Adoption Forecasts
- Regional EV Policies
- Renewable Fuels
- Active and Upcoming Renewable Fuel Projects
- Production and Consumption Forecasts
- Regional Policies
- CCUS Capacity Forecasts
- Regional CCUS Policies
- Active and Upcoming CCUS Projects
- Hydrogen
- Regional Hydrogen Policies
- Active and Upcoming Hydrogen Projects
- Hydrogen Capacity and End Use Sectors
List of Tables
- Sector Grid and Leaders for Energy Transition Technologies
- Renewable Energy Policies and Strategies
- Solar Power Top EPCs and Equipment Manufacturers
- Wind Power Top EPCs and Equipment Manufacturers
- Active and Upcoming Renewable Refineries Projects in North America
- Active and Upcoming CCUS Projects in North America
- Active and Upcoming Low-Carbon Hydrogen Projects in North America
- Examples of Hydrogen Developments in North America
List of Figures
- US Average LCOE
- North America power capacity share, 2018 - 2035
- Power generation share, 2018 - 2035
- Renewable energy generation by type, 2018 - 2035
- Renewable share of total generation, 2021- 2035
- Decommissioning and upcoming thermal capacity, 2023 - 2035
- North America thermal power carbon emissions, 2018 - 2030
- Major solar power owners in North America by capacity
- Major wind power owners in North America by capacity
- Electric vehicle production in North America, 2018 - 2035
- Proportion of EVs in North America light vehicle market, 2018 - 2035
- North America renewable fuel production capacity, 2018 - 2030
- North America renewable fuel consumption, 2018 - 2040
- North America CCUS capacity, 2018 - 2030
- North America end use sectors for CCUS capacity in 2030
- North America hydrogen capacity, 2018 - 2030
- Number of hydrogen plants supplying end use sectors in North America in 2030
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- Iberdrola SA
- NextEra Energy Inc
- Apex Clean Energy,Tesla Inc
- GM
- Nissan
- Grön Fuels
- Phillips 66
- Valero Energy Group
- Exxon Mobil Corp
- Oxy
- GHI
- Air Products
- Swinerton Renewable Energy
- First Solar Inc
- M.A. Mortension Co
- EMJ Corp
- McCarthy Building Companies Inc
- TotalEnergies SE
- Quanta Services Inc
- Grupo Ortiz
- Rosendin Electric Inc
- John Wood Group Plc
- JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
- Canadian Solar Inc
- Trina Solar Co Ltd
- JA Solar Technology Co Ltd
- LONGi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd
- Hanwha Q CELLS Co Ltd
- Maxeon Solar Technologies Ltd
- Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd
- MasTec Inc
- Vestas Wind Systems AS
- Renewable Energy Systems Holdings Ltd
- Siemens AG
- Vepica USA Inc
- Fagen Inc
- Acciona SA
- Electricite de France
- General Electric
- Nordex SE
- Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd
- Enercon GmbH
- Suzlon Energy Ltd
- Senvion SA
- Xinjiang Goldwind Science and Technology Co Ltd
- Platinum Equity LLC
- Nacero Inc
- Darling Ingredients Inc
- Marathon Petroleum Corp
- Neste Corp
- Next Renewable Fuels
- Gevo Inc
- Chevron Corp
- World Energy LLC
- PBF Energy Inc
- Continental Resources Inc
- Summit Agricultural Group
- Occidental Petroleum Corp
- Prairie State Energy Campus LLC
- Enchant Energy Corp
- Air Products and Chemicals Inc
- Calpine Corp
- NextDecade Corp
- Green Hydrogen International
- Clean Hydrogen Works
- Hafnia Ltd
- Hydrogen Naturally Inc
- Air Products and Chemicals Inc
- Bear Head Energy Inc
- Shell plc
- Bakken Energy LLC
- SoCalGas.
